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Research at WFO Wakefield VA

Since June 1994, when National Weather Service (NWS) Wakefield opened, our staff has taken part in interesting and valuable research, including funded projects such as COMET and CSTAR projects. The funded projects are collaborations with universities (University of Virginia and North Carolina State University) and other NWS offices (Raleigh NC, Morehead City NC, Blacksburg VA, Wilmington NC, Greenville-Spartanburg SC). Much of the research has involved winter weather studies and severe weather associated with tropical systems. However, quite a broad spectrum of topics have been addressed, such as lightning, satellite cloud climatologies, and mesoscale modeling. The latest research topics include marine concerns such as rip currents, and short range ensemble forecasts (SREF). The lessons learned from office research will continue to benefit our customers in Virginia, Maryland and North Carolina, through continuous improvement in our forecasts, not only in day to day forecasts, but particularly with high impact weather events. Many of these studies are available in electronic form on this server, and can be accessed below. For a complete list of NWS Wakefield staff publications, see our RESEARCH BIBLIOGRAPHY.

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Winter Weather

Winter Weather Case Studies at WFO Wakefield

Improving forecasts of topographically-induced weather systems in the Carolinas and Virginia.

CSTAR Project - NWS Raleigh NC, with North Carolina State University, NWS Wakefield VA, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg SC, NWS Morehead City NC, NWS Wilmington NC (1999-present)

Quantitative analyses of precipitation changeover in mid-Atlantic mixed precipitation winter storms. COMET Cooperative Project - NWS Wakefield VA and University of Virginia (6/96-6/99). Full study published in the American Meteorological Society journal Weather and Forecasting (Vol. 16 No. 2 April 2001 Pages 248-260)

Selective mesoscale analysis, research, and training (SMART) project, which studied Climatology, Gravity Waves, Mesoscale Modeling, Precipitation Type, Radar Studies, Severe Storms, Terrain Effects

Regional forecast problems, local mesoscale model development, Gravity Waves, Mesoscale Modeling, Precipitation Type, Radar Studies, Satellite Studies, Severe Storms, Winter Storms

Click here to access the Gravity Wave Tutorial - WFO Wakefield has worked extensively with Dr. Steve Koch to develop a Gravity Wave Tutorial Home Page for the joint NWS-NCSU Workshop on Cold Fronts Aloft, Gravity Waves and Mesocyclones in the southeastern United States which was held in Raleigh, N.C. August 11-12, 1998.

Multi-Dimensional Analysis of an Extreme Thundersnow Event During the 30 December 2000 Snowstorm

Overview Of 2 Difficult Forecast Scenarios for the mid-Atlantic U.S. During the 2000-2001 Winter Season - Lessons from Data Analysis

Tropical Cyclones (Outer Band Tornadoes and Heavy Rainfall)

Click here for the link to the SWAT case study page for Bertha '96 created by the National Severe Storms Laboratory

Radar overview of the remnants of Danny '97 as it intensified over North Carolina

A climatology of heavy rainfall producing tropical cyclone remnants over the eastern United States - NWS Upton NY, with NWS Wakefield VA, Office of Hydrology and Plymouth State College (2/99-2/01)

Severe Weather

Severe Weather Studies

Severe Weather Climotology July 7, 2003

Correlating Thunderstorm Lightning Patterns with WSR-88D Signatures and Resultant Benefits for Utility Companies: A Preliminary Investigation of the Hampton Roads "Hot Spot". Originally a collaboration with Dominion Virginia Power, now a current collaboration with Texas A & M University, investigating a climatological maximum in lightning density over southern Hampton Roads VA.

Case study of a long-track tornadic supercell coincident with a mesoscale surface low pressure center over central Virginia

Special Projects

A satellite-derived cloud climatology for the mid-Atlantic states - COMET Partners Project - NWS Wakefield VA and CIRA/Colorado State University (7/00-6/01)

NWS Wakefield is participating in the study of Short Range Ensemble Forecasts with NWS State College, NWS Sterling VA, and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).

Please refer to the NWS State College and NCEP web pages. SREF are being run for several past winter cases, including the Dec. 3, 2000 snowstorm in northeast North Carolina and extreme southeast Virginia.

NWS Wakefield VA is also engaged in a multi-partner study to provide mesoscale forecasts for the Chesapeake Bay region. This study involves the implementation of the Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS) for theChesapeake Bay and the implementation of the RAMS model to provide mesoscale forecasts of winds and waves on the Chesapake Bay. The LAPS portion of the study will cover data assimilation of various data sources (Buoy Obs, Surface Obs, Profiler Data from Aberdeen Proving Ground, WSR-88D base velocity and spectrum width data and local mesonets such as the 4-Winds network). The implementation of the RAMS mesoscale model is the forecast portion of the study. The RAMS model will provide forecasts of winds, waves and water levels for the Chesapeake Bay as well as atmospheric parameters out to 24 hours. The horizontal resolution of the forecasts is expected to be at 5 to 10 KM resolution.

Some of the partners involved in the study are.....

The National Ocean Service

The Air Resource Laboratory in Washington,D.C.

The National Weather Service office in Sterling, VA.

The Forecast Systems Laboratory

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