AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS64 KEPZ 081042
 AFDEPZ
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO-SANTA TERESA NM
 317 AM MST MON NOV 8 2004
 
 SYNOPSIS...
 MOISTURE STREAMING UP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
 WILL GENERATE CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF THE
 STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
 LOCAL AREA TOMORROW.  A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
 THURSDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  THE ACTIVE PATTERN
 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
 MOVES INTO THE REGION...GENERATING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LOWLAND RAIN
 AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. 
 
 DISCUSSION...
 A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
 DAYS.  MOISTURE STREAMING UP FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AHEAD OF A SLOW
 MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GENERATING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER
 PORTIONS OF ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING.  SOME OF THAT MOISTURE IS
 EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO
 TODAY.  WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A
 SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO
 THE STATE.  THE LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY
 WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION.  
 
 SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY AND
 THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
 REGION FROM THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  COLD AIR
 ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
 THURSDAY AND MORE SO ON FRIDAY.  ADDING TO THIS WINTRY MIX WILL BE
 ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE AREA FRIDAY.  DIFFLUENT
 FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL OVER RUN THE LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW
 BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL SET UP THE POSSIBILITY OF A CHANCE
 FOR LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THAT COULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY AND
 CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  LONG RANGE MODELS PROJECT THAT THE
 COLD CORE OF THE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY WITH THE
 POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN SNOW MIX AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.  WITH UNCERTAINTY
 IN MODEL RUNS...WILL STICK WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN AT THE
 LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS BETTER RESOLVED
 IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS.   
 
 PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
 
 EL PASO               BB 076/050 075/047 069 00000
 ALAMOGORDO            BB 070/046 068/043 066 12000
 LAS CRUCES            BB 075/048 071/045 070 00000
 CLOUDCROFT            BB 054/035 047/030 049 12100
 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES BB 071/045 066/042 069 12000
 SILVER CITY           EB 063/042 056/038 060 22000
 DEMING                EB 073/047 068/044 068 11000
 LORDSBURG             EB 075/047 065/044 067 22000
 SIERRA BLANCA         BB 072/049 074/046 065 00000
 
 .ELP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
 
 
 04
 
 

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