AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

FXUS65 KPSR 081727
 AFDPSR
 AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-082245-
 
 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
 1025 AM MST MON NOV 8 2004
 
 SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA 
 FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 .SYNOPSIS...
 A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN 
 CALIFORNIA AND INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA TODAY. AS A RESULT...A CHANCE 
 FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH A SLIGHT 
 CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR 
 THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TO 
 COLORADO TUESDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL FOLLOW TO BRING 
 DRIER WEATHER WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES DURING THE MIDDLE OF 
 THE WEEK. ANOTHER SERIES OF PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IS EXPECTED 
 TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. 
 
 &&
 
 .DISCUSSION...
 MOIST AMS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS CWA WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 
 MID 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE DESERTS. UPPER LOW LIFTING THRU SRN CA 
 TODAY WITH ONE MORE SIGNIFICANT VORT TROUGH TO MOVE THRU THE ERN CWA 
 THIS AFTERNOON. OMEGA VALUES STILL STRONGLY POSITIVE WITH RIGHT 
 ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS ALSO ACROSS SCNTRL AZ THIS AFTERNOON.
 SO...WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP TODAY...JUST ABOUT 
 ANYWHERE...BEST SHOTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER UPSLOPE AREAS OF NRN LA 
 PAZ AND NW MARICOPA COUNTIES. HAVE UPDATED GRIDS FOR TODAY TO 
 REFLECT THE ABOVE THINKING.
 
 AFTER TODAY...TROUGH MOVES OUT ONTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...WITH 
 UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO POSITION ITSELF OVER THE AREA FOR THE TUE/WED
 TIME FRAME. NEXT TROUGH STILL EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN ALONG W COAST 
 LATE THIS WEEK AND GIVE US OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP BY WEEKS END. 
 WILL TALK ABOUT THIS FURTHER IN AFTERNOON DISCUSSION. FOR NOW...ALL 
 ELSE LOOKS GOOD WITH CURRENT FORECASTS...NO FURTHER UPDATES ON TAP. 
 
 &&
 
 .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 
 AZ...NONE. 
 CA...NONE.
 
 &&
 
 

 
 ESTLE
 

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