Helping Hop
Growers Predict Powdery Mildew
By David
Elstein
June 24, 2004 Agricultural Research Service scientists
and cooperators have created an Internet-based model to help farmers determine
when fungicides should be applied to help control hop powdery mildew in the
Pacific Northwest.
Since hop powdery mildew's emergence in the Pacific Northwest in 1996, the
disease has had a major impact on the hop industry, resulting in the loss of
the entire crop on thousands of acres in some years. The disease can be
controlled with fungicides, but annual control costs have been as high as $400
per acre.
To economically manage the disease while protecting the environment, growers
need methods to help them decide when fungicides should be used. So ARS plant
pathologist Walter F. Mahaffee of the
Horticultural
Crops Research Unit, Corvallis, Ore., and Carla Thomas of the
University of California, Davis,
developed the model.
The hops model is a modification of the Gubler/Thomas grape powdery mildew
risk infection model that is used in all grape-growing regions of the world.
Mahaffee's team demonstrated that brief exposure to high temperatures inhibited
disease development. They then used this information to develop model rules to
more accurately predict the risk of infection.
In conjunction with FoxWeather, Mahaffee's team further developed the model
to predict the infection risk five days into the future. In 2002 and 2003, this
forecast was 80 percent accurate for one day into the future and 60 percent
accurate for five days into the future. Trials in grower fields and small plots
in 2002 and 2003 showed that growers could reduce fungicide use by one to three
applications and still have less disease.
Since powdery mildew affects a wide variety of crops, Mahaffee hopes to
further modify the model so it can predict the infection risk of all powdery
mildews, regardless of region.
ARS is the U.S. Department of
Agriculture's chief scientific research agency.
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