SPC AC 231006
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0506 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2004
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
JET PATTERN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LWR 48 ON
MONDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM NOW CROSSING THE ALEUTIANS DEEPENS UPON
ENTERING MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE NE PACIFIC. DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BUILD NWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. AS A
SERIES OF RELATIVELY WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFT GENERALLY NEWD WITHIN
DEVELOPING SW FLOW OVER THE RCKYS AND PLNS.
...SRN PLNS TO OZARKS...
WARM FRONTOGENESIS EXPECTED TO BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE SRN PLNS BY
THE LATTER PART OF DAY TWO PERIOD SHOULD CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS UPPER
FLOW CONTINUES TO BACK DOWNSTREAM FROM DEEPENING TROUGH ALONG THE W
CST. THE NCEP ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT...BUT MORE OR LESS
AGREE WITH THE ECMWF IN DEPICTING THE BOUNDARY REACHING SRN KS/MO BY
12Z TUESDAY.
SUSTAINED WARM ADVECTION AND SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE INFLOW /850 MB
DEWPOINTS AOA 12C/ SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE RED RIVER AREA N/NEWD INTO THE
OZARKS. THIS MAY BE ESPECIALLY TRUE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHEN
REGION WILL BE WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION OF JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
NRN STREAM IMPULSE CROSSING THE UPR MS VLY. MODERATE /35-40 KT/
SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS AND AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MAY SUPPORT
A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS AND A LIMITED THREAT FOR HAIL. BUT GIVEN
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /MINUS 8 TO MINUS 10 C AT 500
MB/ AND ABSENCE OF AN IDENTIFIABLE SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE...A
CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK OF SEVERE APPEARS UNWARRANTED ATTM.
..CORFIDI.. 10/23/2004
...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1100Z
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