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DTimes New Roman =@?Y??0DWingdingsRoman =@?Y?? a .  @n?" dd@  @@`` !1GG  ?    ?R$n:9>@$@B$p>S2>@c $0 ff@@8Jvʚ;-ʚ;g4UdUd?/Epppp@ <4!d!dP^ g@<4ddddP^ g@<4BdBdP^ g@ ph___PPT2001D<4X? % %The ATLSS Vegetative Succession Model&%$@Scott M. Duke-Sylvester ATLSS Project : University of Tennessee *@?OverviewPurpose of the model Application to restoration planning Model description Calibration/validation Development/delivery schedule Availability *Purpose of the vegetative succession model+Provide vegetative succession dynamics Modeling changes to habitat is important for accurate modeling of higher trophic levels A rigorous succession model would include process dynamics (ELM) The ATLSS objective is to interface with ELM, but also produce a alternative less complex succession model.,Z,#Application to restoration planningProvides another tool for assessing the potential for change due to alternative hydrologic scenarios Directly through changes in habitat diversity and structure Diversity : number of species, evenness Structure : tree islands Indirectly by providing a changing habitat for other modelsNe<A<e<A< Model featuresTime step : 1 year Spatial scale : 500x500 meters Possibly finer if computationally feasible 58 habitat types (FGAP 6.6) Stochastic process influenced by local environmental processes 62+\2+\Model responseThe model will simulate succession dynamics in response to a number of environmental processes Hydrologic disturbance : hydroperiod Nutrient disturbance : phosphorus Fire disturbance Response to disturbance is habitat type specific T_ZXZ1ZZ_X1 Model description Space is broken into a set of discrete cells Cell model Starts with a habitat type: H0 Set of alternative habitat types : H1 .. Hn Transition probabilities from H0 to H0 .. Hn : P0 .. Pn P0 .. Pn depend on the current environmental conditions Cell model replicated in each discrete cell8,8%!0,  Cell ModelAllows for changes in cell habitat type Allows for changes in transition probabilities in response to changing environmental conditions Order of events: Update current transition probabilities in response to environmental change Determine the new habitat type for the cell&xx Change in cell stateChange in cell state Change in cell state "Change in transition probabilities "Change in transition probabilities"StatusCurrently: Estimation of model parameters is complete Paul Wetzel Conceptual frame work End year 2002: Working draft August 2003: Model finished, results available Publications Z+Z ZZZZ Z/Z +    /    AvailabilityCurrent plans Sun/Solaris environment C++/object oriented Outputs will be posted at www.atlss.org Executables available to collaborating agencies& Collaborators'Paul Wetzel Leonard Pearlstine : FGAP '(Contact information8E-mail : sylv@tiem.utk.edu Website : www.atlss.org/~sylv4 ? /nS ` %J++..f` Fh;K]Xqm|` h` ffif_3` ffΟ` }` RP@hk]Ҧhk]]pb` ff` ѹWff3>?" dd@,?Pd@ l2 " d@l2`" d n?" dd@   @@``PR    @ ` `6p>> NNFFRN(   IT    "   c BlCDEF"d@ llll@`" Gb  I # " I:b ^Z  # "^Z 2  T?y @? 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H  0޽h ? 33  P(  l  C  *B `}   l  C *F `  H  0޽h ? h  `( pP l  C *B `}   l  C  *F `  H  0޽h ? h  p (  0  l  C *B `}   l  C  *F `  H  0޽h ? h  $( pP $l $ C *B `}   l $ C `*F `  H $ 0޽h ? h  t( `P"@@" tl t C `*B `}   l t C *F `  H t 0޽h ? h  ,(  P/@/ ,l , C *B `}   l , C @*F `P  H , 0޽h ? h  P(  Pl P C *B `}   l P C @N F `  H P 0޽h ? h  >0( ( I 0l 0 C O B `}   2 .0 s *ffP ,$DP2 /0 0 ,$DP2 00 0P  ,$DP2 10 0 @,$DP2 20 N&G qH9I9 ,$D P 30 BSGDH0F{ 6,$D P 40 <GDH0;g ,$DP 50 BGDH0A 3 ,$DP 60 0@E 0 ,$DP ZH0< 2   70 0@K  },$DP ZH1< 2   80 0O   ,$DP ZH2< 2   90 0I `  ,$D P ZHn< 2   :0 0`I M ,$D P ZP0< 2   ;0 0L ` @ m,$D P ZP1< 2   <0 0K cP 0 ,$DP ZP2< 2   =0 0 G  - ,$DP ZPn< 2   >0 6ZJ  #? ,$DP @& " H 0 0޽h ? h   @J(  @ @ S  J B `}<$P   2 @ s *ffP ,$P2 @ 0 ,$P2 @ 0P  ,$P2 @ 0 @,$P2 @ N&G qH9I9 ,$ P @ BSGDH0F{ 6,$ P  @ 6GDH0ff;g ,$P  @ BGDH0A 3 ,$P  @ 0M 0 ,$P ZH0< 2    @ 0G  },$P ZH1< 2    @ 0   ,$P ZH2< 2   @ 0` `  ,$ P ZHn< 2   @ 0 M ,$ P ZP0< 2   @ 0 ` @ m,$ P ZP1< 2   @ 0 cP 0 ,$P ZP2< 2   @ 0  - ,$P ZPn< 2   @ 6Z  #? ,$P @& " H @ 0޽h ? h  HD(  H H S  B `}<$P   2 H s *P ,$P2 H 0 ,$P2 H s *ffP  ,$P2 H 0 @,$P2 H N&G qH9I9 ,$ P H BSGDH0F{ 6,$ P  H 6GDH0;g ,$P  H BGDH0A 3 ,$P  H 0 0 ,$P ZH0< 2    H 0  },$P ZH1< 2    H 0   ,$P ZH2< 2   H 0  `  ,$ P ZHn< 2   H 0 M ,$ P ZP0< 2   H 0 ` @ m,$ P ZP1< 2   H 0 cP 0 ,$P ZP2< 2   H 0P  - ,$P ZPn< 2   H 6Z0  #? ,$P @& " H H 0޽h ? h  |tT (  T T S P B `}<$P   2 T s *ffP ,$P2 T 0 ,$P2 T s *P  ,$P2 T 0 @,$P2 T N&G qH9I9 ,$ P T BSGDH0F{ 6,$ P  T 6GDH0;g ,$P  T BGDH0A 3 ,$P  T 0Њ 0 ,$P ZH0< 2    T 00  },$P ZH1< 2    T 0   ,$P ZH2< 2   T 0 `  ,$ P ZHn< 2   T 0 M ,$ P ZP0< 2   T 00 ` @ m,$ P ZP1< 2   T 0 cP 0 ,$P ZP2< 2   T 0  - ,$P ZPn< 2   T 6Z  #? ,$P @& "  T <0   TE06,,H T 0޽h ? h  `2( H9 ` ` S  B `}<$P   2 ` s *ffP ,$P2 ` 0 ,$P2 ` s *P  ,$P2 ` 0 @,$P2 ` N&G qH6IP$ ,$ P ` BSGdNH!F{ 6,$ P  ` 6GUHH-;g X ,$P  ` BG{HHA 3 ,$P  ` 0P 0 ,$P ZH0< 2    ` 0p  },$P ZH1< 2    ` 0V  ,$P ZH2< 2   ` 0V`  ,$ P ZHn< 2   ` 0VM ,$ P ZP0< 2   ` 0`V` @ m,$ P ZP1< 2   ` 0VcP 0 ,$P ZP2< 2   ` 0V - ,$P ZPn< 2   ` 6ZV #? ,$P @& "  ` <V  TE06,, ` <V   XEt:,,R ` s * p@H ` 0޽h ? hp  @(  x  <A ??P H  0޽h ? h  l(  ll l C VB `}   l l C @VF `  H l 0޽h ? h   h( P hl h C @VB `}   l h C  VF `  H h 0޽h ? h  0p(   pl p C VB `}   l p C VF `  H p 0޽h ? h  0|( `P"@@" |l | C  B `}   l | C BF `  H | 0޽h ? hL  p<(  <R < 3 8     < C v8 @   A cell starts out in a given state : H0 (click mouse) There are a number of alternative states for the cell : H1 to Hn (click mouse) There are transition probabilities from state H0 to the other states (click mouse) Note that a cell can remain the same with probability P0. The state of cell in the next time period is determined my comparing a random number to the transition probabilities. (click mouse).H < 0޽h ? 33 D9(   DX D C 8    D S pu8 @   ;'In this case H2 is chosen (click mouse)H D 0޽h ? 33  L(  LX L C 8    L S p8 @    H L 0޽h ? 33   X[(  XX X C 8    X S 8 @  ;\x;+/C// Aj*m p>lʢkyV=7^4?cch<,3qxɵW]I9` p`ۙÑNt,J9?y0?$J K{i2rfc`pney'3;mFV,t"3/eOYZ pD8fr O22ю|^:] {KߊnfᦕEwXaZ9nY r`#W.>VTgn#:r6%K*uqi?wJJ ]ISuppose the environment changes from state E0 to state E1. ( click mouse)H X 0޽h ? 33_  d(  dX d C 8    d S 8 @   The model will change the transition probabilities in response. 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Duke-Sylvester ATLSS Project : University of Tennessee *@?OverviewPurpose of the model Application to restoration planning Model description Calibration/validation Development/delivery schedule Availability *Purpose of the vegetative succession model+Provide vegetative succession dynamics Modeling changes to habitat is important for accurate modeling of higher trophic levels A rigorous succession model would include process dynamics (ELM) The ATLSS objective is to interface with ELM, but also produce a alternative less complex succession model.,Z,#Application to restoration planningProvides another tool for assessing the potential for change due to alternative hydrologic scenarios Directly through changes in habitat diversity and structure Diversity : number of species, evenness Structure : tree islands Indirectly by providing a changing habitat for other modelsNe<A<e<A< Model featuresTime step : 1 year Spatial scale : 500x500 meters Possibly finer if computationally feasible 58 habitat types (FGAP 6.6) Stochastic process influenced by local environmental processes 62+\2+\Model responseThe model will simulate succession dynamics in response to a number of environmental processes Hydrologic disturbance : hydroperiod Nutrient disturbance : phosphorus Fire disturbance Response to disturbance is habitat type specific T_ZXZ1ZZ_X1 Model description Space is broken into a set of discrete cells Cell model Starts with a habitat type: H0 Set of alternative habitat types : H1 .. Hn Transition probabilities from H0 to H0 .. Hn : P0 .. Pn P0 .. Pn depend on the current environmental conditions Cell model replicated in each discrete cell8,8%!0,  Cell ModelAllows for changes in cell habitat type Allows for changes in transition probabilities in response to changing environmental conditions Order of events: Update current transition probabilities in response to environmental change Determine the new habitat type for the cell&xx Change in cell stateChange in cell state Change in cell state "Change in transition probabilities "Change in transition probabilities"StatusCurrently: Estimation of model parameters is complete Paul Wetzel Conceptual frame work End year 2002: Working draft August 2003: Model finished, results available Publications Z+Z ZZZZ Z/Z +    /    AvailabilityCurrent plans Sun/Solaris environment C++/object oriented Outputs will be posted at www.atlss.org Executables available to collaborating agencies& Collaborators'Paul Wetzel Leonard Pearlstine : FGAP '(Contact information8E-mail : sylv@tiem.utk.edu Website : www.atlss.org/~sylv4 ? /p  @(  x  <A ?? 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Duke-Sylvester ATLSS Project : University of Tennessee *@?OverviewPurpose of the model Application to restoration planning Model description Calibration/validation Development/delivery schedule Availability *Purpose of the vegetative succession model+Provide vegetative succession dynamics Modeling changes to habitat is important for accurate modeling of higher trophic levels A rigorous succession model would include process dynamics (ELM) The ATLSS objective is to interface with ELM, but also produce a alternative less complex succession model.,Z,#Application to restoration planningProvides another tool for assessing the potential for change due to alternative hydrologic scenarios Directly through changes in habitat diversity and structure Diversity : number of species, evenness Structure : tree islands Indirectly by providing a changing habitat for other modelsNe<A<e<A< Model featuresTime step : 1 year Spatial scale : 500x500 meters Possibly finer if computationally feasible 58 habitat types (FGAP 6.6) Stochastic process influenced by local environmental processes 62+\2+\Model responseThe model will simulate succession dynamics in response to a number of environmental processes Hydrologic disturbance : hydroperiod Nutrient disturbance : phosphorus Fire disturbance Response to disturbance is habitat type specific T_ZXZ1ZZ_X1 Model description Space is broken into a set of discrete cells Cell model Starts with a habitat type: H0 Set of alternative habitat types : H1 .. Hn Transition probabilities from H0 to H0 .. Hn : P0 .. Pn P0 .. Pn depend on the current environmental conditions Cell model replicated in each discrete cell8,8%!0,  Cell ModelAllows for changes in cell habitat type Allows for changes in transition probabilities in response to changing environmental conditions Order of events: Update current transition probabilities in response to environmental change Determine the new habitat type for the cell&xx Change in cell stateChange in cell state Change in cell state "Change in transition probabilities "Change in transition probabilities"StatusCurrently: Estimation of model parameters is complete Paul Wetzel Conceptual frame work End year 2002: Working draft August 2003: Model finished, results available Publications Z+Z ZZZZ Z/Z +    /    AvailabilityCurrent plans Sun/Solaris environment C++/object oriented Outputs will be posted at www.atlss.org Executables available to collaborating agencies& Collaborators'Paul Wetzel Leonard Pearlstine : FGAP '(Contact information8E-mail : sylv@tiem.utk.edu Website : www.atlss.org/~sylv4 ? 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DTimes New RomanZ@?Y??0DWingdingsRomanZ@?Y?? a .  @n?" dd@  @@``  "4GG   ?   ?R$n:9>@$@B$BkgHJU5c2@c $0 ff@@8Jvʚ;-ʚ;g4UdUd?/Epppp@ <4!d!dP^ g@<4ddddP^ g@<4BdBdP^ g@ ph___PPT2001D<4X? %=%The ATLSS Vegetative Succession Model&%$@Scott M. Duke-Sylvester ATLSS Project : University of Tennessee *@?OverviewPurpose of the model Application to restoration planning Model description Calibration/validation Development/delivery schedule Availability *Purpose of the vegetative succession modelHProvide vegetative succession dynamics Modeling changes to habitat is important for accurate modeling of higher trophic levels A rigorous succession model would include process dynamics : Everglades Landscape Model (ELM) The ATLSS objective is to interface with ELM, but also produce a alternative less complex succession model.IZI#Application to restoration planningProvides another tool for assessing the potential for change due to alternative hydrologic scenarios Directly through changes in habitat diversity and structure Diversity : number of species, evenness Structure : tree islands Indirectly by providing a changing habitat for other modelsNe<A<e<A< Model featuresTime step : 1 year Spatial scale : 500x500 meters Possibly finer if computationally feasible 58 habitat types (FGAP 6.6) Stochastic process influenced by local environmental processes 62+\2+\Model responseThe model will simulate succession dynamics in response to a number of environmental processes Hydrologic disturbance : hydroperiod Nutrient disturbance : phosphorus Fire disturbance Response to disturbance is habitat type specific T_ZXZ1ZZ_X1 Model description Space is broken into a set of discrete cells Cell model Starts with a habitat type: H0 Set of alternative habitat types : H1 .. Hn Transition probabilities from H0 to H0 .. Hn : P0 .. Pn P0 .. Pn depend on the current environmental conditions Cell model replicated in each discrete cell8,8%!0,  Cell ModelAllows for changes in cell habitat type Allows for changes in transition probabilities in response to changing environmental conditions Order of events: Update current transition probabilities in response to environmental change Determine the new habitat type for the cell&xx Change in cell stateChange in cell state Change in cell state "Change in transition probabilities "Change in transition probabilities"StatusCurrently: Estimation of model parameters is complete Paul Wetzel Conceptual frame work End year 2002: Working draft August 2003: Model finished, results available Publications Z+Z ZZZZ Z/Z +    /    AvailabilityCurrent plans Sun/Solaris environment C++/object oriented Outputs will be posted at www.atlss.org Executables available to collaborating agencies& Collaborators'Paul Wetzel Leonard Pearlstine : FGAP '(Contact information8E-mail : sylv@tiem.utk.edu Website : www.atlss.org/~sylv4 ? /(  `D( pP l  C VB `}     C @VF `P<$P  H  0޽h ? h E=( 5% R  3 8   C  C V8 @   Process dynamics here means the dynamics of nutrient change due to uptake by vegetation This also includes changes in vegetation due to changes in nutrients, and the feedback between Nutrients and vegetationH  0޽h ? 33r5Nh(j N|m(L(  RdO)L5S@Picturesu(PowerPoint Document(e SummaryInformation(+OM  !"#$%&'()*+,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLNOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abcdVfghijklmnopqrstvwxyz{|}~DocumentSummaryInformation8Current User4*      !"#$%&'()pU,-./0123456789:;<=>?@ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRT}WXYZ[\]^_`abcdefghijklmnoqrstuvwxyz{|~  Slide Titles 8@ _PID_HLINKS'Adhttp://www.atlss.org/P,_CTScott Duke-Sylvester pGqsF2rg銱`ѻȒV#aB@ 4#[ E~?v|nfuai,1>/5hW ѕ64-#Ps[Mg=0Bux%\& KN/tE )ğ/^yIVZKbYی]KD{HWwؗgvȢaH i{ 9fXE@SJ&Ĉ?y96^^s20_[6vNrjWi.3TV՜ ^[/YJ񞽐I+UINxrlᥫsJet@#7Re2_SX`vѓlÒ{Wd/Ed#8 7?y ]_Lϝ8G,^\6s<) gqٵ몋Wͮ{3;ߘ`چ*  ~vHfs8 @184 @a8 @18s82wɻBŲfaoIlyIw;9鵟fGw'2ɶwqzya87  p [?Q?֐[USqH7hL Euӗ~K}9s-  @`-8|:? h֬uBlyaDa0>jWvfPnZvEJ`kTSk aVz}_yzVΨbGz\H'=ɧӪ^.JdT7]y?z[^J;_nԳhDo+ey@۔N&f{' 0Oax׳?vuSޔ5*vy"Mg6b_٠Jd! 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DTimes New Roman.@?Y??0DWingdingsRoman.@?Y?? a .  @n?" dd@  @@``  "5GG   ?   ?R$n:9>@b$R# i2a@B$BkgHJU5c2@c $0 ff@@8Jvʚ;-ʚ;g4SdSd?/Eppp@ <4!d!dP^ g@<4ddddP^ g@<4BdBdP^ g@ ph___PPT2001D<4X? %=%The ATLSS Vegetative Succession Model&%$@Scott M. Duke-Sylvester ATLSS Project : University of Tennessee *@?OverviewPurpose of the model Application to restoration planning Model description Calibration/validation Development/delivery schedule Availability *Purpose of the vegetative succession modelHProvide vegetative succession dynamics Modeling changes to habitat is important for accurate modeling of higher trophic levels A rigorous succession model would include process dynamics : Everglades Landscape Model (ELM) The ATLSS objective is to interface with ELM, but also produce a alternative less complex succession model.IZI#Application to restoration planningProvides another tool for assessing the potential for change due to alternative hydrologic scenarios Directly through changes in habitat diversity and structure Diversity : number of species, evenness Structure : tree islands Indirectly by providing a changing habitat for other modelsNe<A<e<A< Model featuresTime step : 1 year Spatial scale : 500x500 meters Possibly finer if computationally feasible 58 habitat types (FGAP 6.6) Stochastic process influenced by local environmental processes 62+\2+\Model responseThe model will simulate succession dynamics in response to a number of environmental processes Hydrologic disturbance : hydroperiod Nutrient disturbance : phosphorus Fire disturbance Response to disturbance is habitat type specific T_ZXZ1ZZ_X1 Model description Space is broken into a set of discrete cells Cell model Starts with a habitat type: H0 Set of alternative habitat types : H1 .. Hn Transition probabilities from H0 to H0 .. Hn : P0 .. Pn P0 .. Pn depend on the current environmental conditions Cell model replicated in each discrete cell8,8%!0,  Cell ModelAllows for changes in cell habitat type Allows for changes in transition probabilities in response to changing environmental conditions Order of events: Update current transition probabilities in response to environmental change Determine the new habitat type for the cell&xx Change in cell stateChange in cell state Change in cell state "Change in transition probabilities "Change in transition probabilities"StatusCurrently: Estimation of model parameters is complete Paul Wetzel Conceptual frame work End year 2002: Working draft August 2003: Model finished, results available Publications Z+Z ZZZZ Z/Z +    /    AvailabilityCurrent plans Sun/Solaris environment C++/object oriented Outputs will be posted at www.atlss.org Executables available to collaborating agencies& Collaborators'Paul Wetzel Leonard Pearlstine : FGAP '(Contact information8E-mail : sylv@tiem.utk.edu Website : www.atlss.org/~sylv4 ? /(U @ (   x  c $pB 0P  x  c $C   |  Tv @`$  C A atlss.logo 0000AB19 Macintosh HD B64C5513: d  <  }  ;Project web-site : www.atlss.org E-mail : sylv@tiem.utk.edu<;?   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