EU Enlargement: Implications for the New Member Countries, the United States, and World Trade is part I of a series of forthcoming reports on the integration of the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Newly Independent States (NIS) into global commodity markets. The report presents a medium-term forecast of the changes that EU enlargement will bring to commodity production and trade in Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, as well as to the enlarged EU and U.S. and world trade.

U.S. -EU Food and Agricultural Comparisons provides information and analysis on a wide range of topics relating to agriculture in the United States and European Union. The chapter on EU enlargement discusses the most contentious issues that arose during negotiations between the CEEs and the EU, as well as implications for agricultural trade between the United States and the EU-25.

International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns analyzes expenditures across 114 countries on major consumption categories, including food and different food subcategories. Results indicate poorer countries are more responsive to price and income changes and also allocate larger shares of their total budget to necessities such as food.

EU Enlargement: The End Game Begins presents the important issues in the negotiations leading up to the Copenhagen Summit. Accession could bring significant changes in Central and East European production and trade. Impacts on world trade are likely to be small, but enlargement could alter U.S. exports to the region.

Livestock Sectors in the Economies of Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union: Transition from Plan to Market and the Road Ahead points out that Poland, along with Hungary, has emerged as one of the more successful reformers in the region. The report identifies factors contributing to Poland's relative success in this sphere, but also points out institutional bottlenecks that continue to prevent Poland's livestock sector from reaching its potential. Model results point to potential trade and investment opportunities, but the report emphasizes that this potential depends on the successful implementation of institutional and policy reforms.

Changes in Agricultural Markets in Transition Economies provides a comprehensive analysis of the economic forces behind the profound changes in agricultural production, consumption, and trade in the transition economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. The most important conclusion is that declines in output have been an inevitable part of market reform and that the main goal of agricultural policy in the transition economies should not be to return output to pre-reform levels but to increase the productivity of input use.

Pressures for Change in Eastern Europe's Livestock Sectors points out an accelerating trend towards greater concentration in the meat and dairy processing sectors of Poland and other East European countries. The principal source of this pressure is Poland's pending accession to the European Union (EU) and the need to upgrade plants to meet strict EU sanitary standards.

EU Enlargement: Negotiations Give Rise to New Issues discusses reasons why the higher prices and income support eagerly anticipated by Polish producers may not materialize. The EU is insisting on a transition period before Polish farmers become eligible for the full range of EU income support. In addition, Poland supports prices for some commodities at levels higher than EU intervention prices, and Polish prices for these commodities could decline on accession.

EU Enlargement: Impacts on CEE Wheat Markets suggests that Poland's wheat output may actually decline with EU membership because Poland's wheat prices have been higher than the EU intervention price in some years.

Agriculture in Poland and Hungary: Preparing for EU Accession notes than although higher prices projected to come with accession could give a boost to Poland's livestock sector, the need to meet strict EU standards and comply with animal welfare regulations will raise production costs and could force some of Poland's smaller farmers out of business.

Enlargement to the East analyzes potential pressures that enlargement may place on the European Union. ERS model results suggest that enlargement could exacerbate EU surpluses of rye, pork, and beef, but reduce surpluses of wheat and barley.

for more information, contact: Nancy Cochrane
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page updated: July 12, 2003