For Immediate Release
Office of the Press Secretary
March 22, 2001
Administration's Surplus Estimates Fact Sheet 3/21/01
The Administration's surplus estimates already
assume an economic slowdown in 2001. Furthermore, the budget
projections also assume that revenue growth slows markedly in 2001,
2002 and beyond relative to last year's heady pace.
Revenue Growth
|
|
Percent Growth |
|
2000 - Actual
|
10.8% |
|
2001 - YTD Actual
|
6.7% |
|
2001 - Admin Forecast
|
5.5% |
|
2002 - Admin Forecast
|
3.9% |
|
- Thus, while private forecasters may be noting
that revenue growth is decelerating in 2001 relative to 2000, this is
consistent with the Administration's assumptions. In fact,
year-to-date 2001 revenue growth is actually faster than the
Administration has forecast - 6.7% compared with 5.5%.
- A survey of the nation's top Wall Street and
economic consulting firms reveals a range of FY2001 surplus forecasts
between $250-323 billion. The average of these estimates is
$282 billion, virtually identical with the Administration's $284
billion baseline forecast. While Merrill Lynch's $250
billion forecast has received considerable attention, its baseline
revenue assumptions are very similar to those of the
Administration. The main reasons that Merrill has a lower
surplus estimate are higher expected spending growth and tax cuts in
2001. Furthermore, the Wells Fargo estimate quoted in the
press ($225 billion) is not the official company forecast,
which is actually in line with the Administration's.
|
