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December 1999
World cotton production for 1999/00 is forecast at 87.4
million 480-pound bales, up 3 percent from last year, despite the
lowest world price in five seasons, averaging 48.2 cents per
pound so far this season, down from the recent peak of 91.4 cents
in 1994/95. World area is forecast to decrease 1 percent to 32.6
million hectares while the yield is up 5 percent from a year ago
to 584 kilograms per hectare. The world's largest cotton
producers, the United States and China, are projected to account
for 41 percent of global production, up from 40 percent last year
as a larger U.S. crop more than offsets China's production drop.
The United States experienced by far the greatest year to year
rise in global production share as it recovered from last year's
weather reduced crop, increasing from 16 percent of output to 19
percent in 1999/2000.
The top seven producers of 1999/2000, including the United States
and China, are expected to contribute 79 percent of the world
cotton output compared with 77 percent in 1998/99. Of the seven
major producers, only China and Australia are forecast to fall
below last year's output. Production in the other major producers
were up as crops benefitted from a decline in insect pressure and
disease damage, and above normal weather during most of the
growing season.
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