1999/2000 WINTER GRAIN PROSPECTS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES

This article presents early indications of Northern Hemisphere winter grain prospects outside the United States based on reports from U.S. agricultural attaches stationed overseas and analysis by Washington-based USDA personnel. A special thanks goes to the World Agricultural Outlook Board/Joint Agricultural Weather Facility who have continually supplied FAS with world agricultural weather information and analyses. The first forecast of 1999/2000 area, yield, and production for wheat and coarse grains will be released May 12.

Summary: Total foreign winter grain area for 1999/2000 most likely will be below the level achieved last season; however, there are regional differences. In the European Union (EU), area is expected to be lower for the winter grain crops (mainly, wheat, rye, and barley) due to relatively weaker prices, weather difficulties, and increased set-aside. Generally, crop prospects are favorable, but below normal rainfall in Portugal and Spain and excessive rainfall in northern Europe delayed or prevented planting. For Eastern Europe, area is projected lower as rain and snow along with cold weather in late-October and early-November delayed winter grain plantings in southeastern Europe. Initial crop prospects are below last season's level, but above average. In Russia, winter grain area is reported to be lower than last season's level as below-normal precipitation last fall in southern Russia hampered plantings. A mild winter has improved conditions for winter grains. In Ukraine, winter grain area is expected to only match last season's reduced level due to a drought that persisted through the middle of October in the eastern growing regions. The crops went into dormancy poorly established, but overwintering conditions were favorable for winter grains. For India, favorable weather pushed projected area above last season's level. Mild weather across the main northern growing areas boosted crop prospects. In Pakistan, area is reportedly near last season's level and crop prospects are favorable. In spite of excessive rainfall at planting which caused localized flooding, the crop benefitted from timely rains. The crops in India and Pakistan are harvested during April through June. In China, based on planting intentions reported by the State Statistical Bureau, winter grain area is expected to be lower than last season, but winter wheat is projected slightly higher. The fall of 1998 and winter of 1999 are one of the driest on the North China Plain, but irrigation aided winter wheat. Crop prospects are guarded at this time as April and May rainfall are critical in determining yield potential. In the Middle East, grain area is projected to be similar in Saudi Arabia, lower in Syria, but larger in Turkey. Crop prospects are generally favorable in most of Turkey, but poor from Syria east to Iran. In Northwest Africa, area is projected below last season's level due to fall dryness in Morocco, reducing planting intentions. Rainfall in January improved crop prospects in Morocco. However, in Algeria and Tunisia area is projected to be similar to 1998/99 due to favorable planting conditions. Crop prospects across the region are guarded and timely rainfall is needed for the remainder of the growing season to improve crop conditions. In Canada, winter wheat area is similar to the previous year. Crop prospects are favorable for winter wheat due to a mild winter. In Mexico, winter wheat area is projected slightly higher than last season and irrigation supplies continue to be low.

European Union: Winter grain area for 1999/2000 in the EU is projected to be slightly lower than last season. Yield prospect for winter crops are generally favorable except in Spain and Portugal where prolonged dryness since the fall has negatively affected crops. In northwestern and southeastern Europe, the unseasonably mild weather caused winter wheat to break dormancy one to three weeks early. In the United Kingdom, winter grains are expected to decline sharply because of the increase in the set-aside rate and the wet weather conditions during planting. After the wet fall, normal rainfall returned and above average temperatures prevailed during the winter and early spring. France's winter grain crop area is projected to be down slightly from last year. The planting conditions were unfavorable at the beginning due to wet weather, but mild weather aided late-season field work. In January and February, northern France experienced excessive rainfall; however, rainfall returned to normal levels in March. While the North has excess moisture, southwestern France is doing well and southeastern France is trending dry. Germany's winter grain area is down following well above average precipitation (second wettest fall in the past 49 years) and an unusually early winter in November that hindered planting. Since then, Germany has continued to have above average precipitation throughout the winter and early spring. The Netherlands had so much rain and flooding during the autumn of 1998 that area seeded to winter wheat is reduced greatly and above average precipitation continues to impede crop development and spring planting. In Spain and Portugal, winter grain area is up from last year's drought reduced level. However, crop prospects for 1999/2000 are guarded since southern Spain and Portugal are again suffering from a dry fall and winter. March rainfall continues to be below normal and southern Spain received much less rain than in the north. Since a large portion of durum wheat is produced in southern Spain, the decline in yield prospects for durum wheat are expected to be greater than those for the soft winter wheat which is grown throughout the country. Italy's winter grain area is expected to increase slightly over last year and the weather has been favorable throughout most of the growing season. However, dry weather during the winter in the Po Valley limited subsoil moisture recharge and additional precipitation will be needed during the growing season to maintain favorable crop prospects.

Eastern Europe: Overall winter grain sowings for 1999/2000 are projected to be significantly lower than last year. Individually, planted area is lower in Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, former Yugoslavia, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. Farmers across the region are planting less area due in part to low prices for last year's crop. In some cases, farmers are still awaiting payment for last year's crops from their governments or from food distributors. Input prices are rising across the region, so that farmers have difficulty obtaining farm machinery and good quality seeds. Yields are expected to decline this year as farmers are using less fertilizer and pesticide due to increased input costs. In addition, heavy fall rains delayed or prevented planting in many Eastern European countries, and above average precipitation continued throughout the winter. Bulgaria had its wettest fall in the past 49 years, and Romania and Hungary had their second wettest fall in 49 years. In November, temperatures in southeast Europe dropped well below normal, causing the crops to go dormant one to three weeks earlier than usual. Snow melt at the end of winter combined with continued rain caused record flooding in the agricultural lands in northwestern Romania and eastern Hungary. The Czech Republic also experienced well above normal precipitation during the winter. By late March, precipitation in these countries returned to normal levels, allowing the soil to begin drying out. Above average temperatures brought the winter wheat out of dormancy one to three weeks earlier than usual. Slovakia's winter grain area is expected to decrease from last year due to excessive rainfall. At planting, above normal rainfall hampered field work and prevented farmers from achieving their planting intentions. After a mild winter, the soils were saturated and rapidly melting snow cover caused another flood in the same area. The exception to the expected decreases in winter grain areas is Poland. In Poland, winter grain area is projected be about the same as in 1998/99. Favorable fall weather allowed most winter grains to be planted at the optimal time and temperatures and precipitation have been generally favorable to-date.

Russia: The government indicated winter grains were sown on approximately 12.3 million hectares for 1999/2000, down from 12.8 million last year based on agricultural ministry data from Moscow. Drought conditions that continued through the summer and into autumn delayed plantings and hampered crop germination and establishment throughout the prime winter-wheat region of southern Russia (northern North Caucas, southern Black Soils, and Volga Valley) . However, abundant precipitation during the winter and mild early-spring weather stabilized crop conditions and improved yield potential. According to the Federal Weather Center, the agency chiefly responsible for monitoring Russia's winter-crop conditions, winter grains will need to be re-planted on 1.8 to 2.2 million hectares. Fall drought in the south, possible snow mold in the north, and frequent freezing and thawing caused the potential for above normal winterkill. Last season, Russia replanted about 1.6 million hectares, mostly with spring barley. Temperatures plunged to as low as -20 degrees Celsius in southern Russia in early February, but the cold weather did not persist long enough to cause damage. A mild spring has promoted early greening and planting of spring grains is about 2 weeks early, although a recent cold snap in late March slowed planting progress.

Despite the recent improvement in conditions, however, the current outlook for 1999/2000 winter-grain production in Russia is guarded. Farms continue to operate under severe financial constraints and soil fertility has been depleted following years of inadequate fertilizer applications. Herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides are prohibitively expensive, while agricultural machinery and fuel remain in short supply.

Ukraine: Sown winter-grain area for 1999/2000 nearly matched the previous year's level of 6.9 million hectares, according to the agricultural ministry. Excessive dryness in the fall that carried over from the summer resulted in very poor crop establishment in eastern Ukraine; however, in southern and western Ukraine planting conditions were mostly favorable. Beginning on October 20, light to moderate showers brought much-needed moisture to the drought-stricken crop areas. A mild winter followed an unseasonably cold December, providing favorable overwintering conditions for winter grains. Although December temperatures were considerably below average in Ukraine, snow cover was adequate to protect winter grains from damage. Temperatures fell again in February, but only briefly, with little or no damage to crops. Based on assessment reports from the National Weather Center, about 15 percent of winter grains are likely to emerge from dormancy in unsatisfactory condition. Mild early-spring weather promoted early greening and below average winterkill is anticipated.

The winter-grain outlook for Ukraine is better than Russia as poor crop establishment is limited to only the eastern growing regions, but continued below-optimum applications of fertilizer and plant-protection agents will likely hamper winter-grain yield for 1999/2000. Recent reports indicate that 30 percent less fertilizer and 50 percent less pesticides will be made available unless some measures can be found to pay previous debts of private commercial suppliers. Further, no more than 50 percent of all tractors are in working condition this spring. Although sown area matched last year's level, it fell far short of the 8.1-million-hectare target and is nearly 10 percent below the average of the past eight years.

India: Winter grain sowing for 1999/2000 is projected above last season's record level. India's 1999/2000 wheat planting took place during the optimal planting period (mid-October to mid-December) in most states due to favorable soil moisture conditions aided by late monsoon rains. While relative prices of competing crops such as rapeseed and pulses were firmer than wheat at planting, farmers typically prefer to plant wheat on irrigated land because of the guaranteed support price. Post-planting weather conditions were generally favorable. Prolonged foggy weather in major wheat growing areas and localized shortages of phosphatic fertilizers may reduce yields in some areas. Overall, above average wheat yields can be realized due to greater use of certified seed, herbicide availability, and timely rains.

About 80 percent of India's wheat crop is at least partially irrigated, but irrigation facilities are not as widespread in marginal surplus states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan where the crop is more dependent on winter rains, which have been sufficient for normal crop development. Regarding grain quality, it is too early to assess the quality of this year's crop as much will depend on weather conditions from now until harvest. A sudden rise in temperature or unseasonable rains could negatively affect the quality of the wheat to be harvested in mid-April.

Pakistan: The 1999/2000 winter grain crop is projected to be similar to last season. According to reports, an estimated 40 percent decrease in the use of phosphatic fertilizers (due to higher prices and late availability), prolonged dry weather in rain-fed areas (which comprise about 16 percent of total wheat production) and late planting (particularly in areas where wheat follows sugarcane due to the late start of the crushing season) could curb yield prospects this season. On the positive side, the crop was sown more timely than last season, particularly in the rice and cotton regions of Punjab. Also, relatively cool weather through the first week of March helped improve prospects for the late-planted crop.

The Government of Pakistan encourages wheat production and supplies fertilizers, seeds, and irrigation to growers. Input subsidies have declined or been eliminated in recent years as part of ongoing International Monetary Fund reforms. Many observers expect wheat output to remain stable around current levels for the foreseeable future due to competition from alternative crops and problems with salinization, input supply, and seed quality.

China: The 1999/2000 winter grain area is projected smaller than a year ago, but winter wheat is expected to be slightly higher, according to a planting intentions report from China's State Statistical Bureau. Growing conditions were initially favorable in the North China Plain, where about 75 percent of the winter wheat crop is grown. Heavy summer rainfall and mild temperatures boosted soil moisture and aided irrigation supplies. (About 80 percent of the total wheat crop is irrigated to some extent.) However, the weather was unusually warm and dry throughout the autumn and winter, resulting in poor establishment of rainfed winter wheat in many areas. Precipitation averaged less than 25 percent of normal from September 1 to December 31, making it one of the driest time period in recent history. Above-normal temperatures throughout the winter and early spring, caused the crop to break dormancy one to two weeks ahead of schedule, but about the same time as the last two years. Scattered showers in February and early March improved moisture conditions in central and eastern China, although it remained drier than normal in northern areas through the end of March. Normal temperatures and increased rainfall during the critical months of April and May will be needed to improve yield prospects for the 1999/2000 winter wheat crop, which accounts for approximately 90 percent of China's total wheat crop.

Northwestern Africa: Crop area for 1999/2000 is projected to be smaller than last season, mainly due to reduced area in Morocco. Planted area is expected to decline in Morocco due to the late arrival of rainfall during the Fall of 1998. Typically, farmers start planting winter grains (wheat and barley) after the first significant rain, which come as early as September and finish sowing by mid-January. Since the rains came in early-December 1998, there was not enough time to plant all the fields. As a result, most fields were planted late and an unusually cold winter delayed crop development. However, normal rainfall in January boosted soil moisture reserves. Crop prospects are guarded at this time, pending regular, widespread rainfall that will allow the crop yield to recover to an average level. In western Algeria, late-arriving rains delayed plantings, but adequate precipitation followed and has prevailed to-date. In eastern and central Algeria, near-normal rainfall allowed farmers to sow an area similar to the 1998/99 season. Scattered rainfall in March has provided needed soil moisture and maintain a favorable crop outlook. Tunisian farmers were encouraged by early-season rainfall and managed to plant an area similar to last year's levels. A drying trend since February slowed crop development and additional precipitation is needed despite recent, light rainfall. The Northwest African winter grain crops typically advance through the critical heading stage during March and April. April weather patterns will be crucial in determining yield for the wheat and barley crops.

Middle East: Winter grain area in Saudi Arabia for 1999/2000 is projected to be similar to last year's level. The Grain Silos and Flour Mills Organization (GSFMO) has reportedly not announced wheat and barley quotas for this production season; however, it is expected to remain unchanged. GSFMO policy over the past few years has been to target wheat production to meet domestic needs only. Locally-produced barley under quota benefits from a government subsidy of about $268 per metric ton, while the Government-guaranteed purchase price for wheat producers remains at $400 per metric ton. The crops are primarily grown by small-scale farmers and are 100 percent irrigated. Harvest extends from the end of April into June. For Turkey, winter grain area is projected to be higher than a year ago. Wheat area will most likely expand at the expense of cotton as a result of low cotton procurement prices and decrease in cotton exports. About 40 percent of the wheat crop is grown in Central Anatolia, and the remainder spread throughout the country. Barley area is projected to be similar to last season as an increase in malting barleys are offset by a decline in feed barley demand. The weather pattern has been relatively favorable and should reduce pest problems. Evenly distributed rainfall and near normal temperatures aided crop plantings and establishment; however, in the southeast dry warm weather has damaged any rainfed crop. Generally, crop prospects are favorable at this time and rainfall from now until May is the single most important determinant factor of yield. In Syria, winter grains area is projected lower than last year. Rainfall at planting was late and well below average. In addition, the winter has been dry and warmer-than-normal. The continued drying trend is causing concern about yield prospects, especially for barley. About 40 percent of the wheat is irrigated, producing about 70 percent of the crop, while nearly all the barley is rainfed. Irrigation water is usually available for wheat since there are no other major crops competing for water during winter and spring. However, precipitation and return to normal temperatures is needed soon to prevent further yield loss.

Canada: The 1999/2000 winter wheat area is reportedly near the same level as last season. Planting conditions were normal and the crops experienced a mild winter with above normal precipitation.. Winterkill is expected to be minimal this season. Most of the winter wheat is grown in the Province of Ontario and comprises less than 5 percent of Canada's total wheat crop. Roughly 60 percent of the 1.4 million ton 1998/99 winter crop was soft white wheat and 40 percent was soft red wheat. About 400,000 tons is usually required for the domestic market, with the remainder exported. As most of the small grain crops are grown in the Prairie Provinces, spring rainfall is critical to provide soil moisture for the upcoming summer crops.

Mexico: Wheat area for 1999/2000 is projected to be slightly larger than last season with yield potential similar to 1998/99. Autumn rainfall was greater than last year, but still below normal. Rainfall for virtually the entire country was less than 50 percent of normal from December through the end of February, while temperatures were at least one degree above normal for that period. Light rain in March aided the irrigated wheat, but reservoir levels in the Northwest (Sinaloa and Sonora) are still lower than last year due to continued below-normal rainfall. Reservoir levels in the Northwest are reported to be 20 percent of capacity at planting. Additional rainfall is needed in April for normal crop development and reservoir replenishment. Beter than 90 percent of Mexico's annual wheat production comes from the fall/winter cycle, and the irrigated northwest region accounts for about 40 percent of the fall/winter production. Also, in the central plateau of Mexico where the summer crops are grown, reservoir levels have risen above the previous year and soil moisture is adequate due to plentiful summer and autumn rainfall.

Last modified: Thursday, December 11, 2003