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October 7, 1999
Russian Winter-Grain Sowing Ahead of Last Year
Sowing of the 2000/01 Russian winter-grain crop is proceeding ahead of last year's pace. Planting-progress reports indicate that 11.7 million hectares of winter crops were sown as of October 4, against 10.7 million last year. Agricultural officials are forecasting that winter-grain area will likely exceed the official target of 15.1 million hectares. The pace of planting is slowing, however - only 0.2 million hectares were planted during the week prior to October 4, and fall sowing is typically 90 percent complete by the end of September. This suggests that final sown area is unlikely to reach the target. Final sown area for 1999/2000 was 12.3 million hectares.
An estimated 19.5 million tons of winter grains were harvested in 1999, roughly matching the previous year's output but 15 percent below the average of the past 5 years. Winter grains typically comprise one-third of total grain production and one-half of total wheat production. Winter-grain yields have dropped roughly 30 percent since the high production years of the late 1980's, when fertilizer use was at its peak.
For the second consecutive year, dry conditions have prevailed in key winter-wheat areas during the fall sowing campaign. Winter grains can compensate for poor establishment conditions, however, given favorable subsequent weather. In the North Caucasus region, for example, 1999 yield was relatively high despite widespread dryness during planting and establishment; adequate precipitation during the winter months replenished soil moisture, and over-wintering conditions were generally mild.
For more information, contact the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0888.
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