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December 23, 1999
RUSSIA AND UKRAINE: UPDATE ON WINTER-GRAIN CONDITIONS
Unusually warm weather has prevailed over the past two weeks throughout much of the prime winter-wheat region of southern Russia and southern and eastern Ukraine. Parts of central and southern Ukraine, the North Caucasus, and the Volga Valley are devoid of protective snow cover. In some oblasts, average daily temperatures have exceeded 5 degrees Celsius for over ten consecutive days -- warm enough for winter wheat to have broken dormancy.
In general, winter-wheat conditions are worse in Ukraine than in Russia. Persistent fall dryness had a significant negative impact on crop emergence and establishment in Ukraine. (See November 23 update.) According to a Ukrainian agricultural official, roughly one-third of the sown area did not germinate. Although a portion of the unsprouted crop will subsequently germinate and emerge, the poor overall germination will impose an additional burden on the spring-planting campaign, as farmers will need to plant more spring barley to compensate for ruined winter grains.
In Russia, meanwhile, October rainfall replenished supplies of topsoil moisture shortly after planting, and establishment conditions were generally favorable. A mid-December report from SovEcon, an independent Moscow-based agricultural research institute, indicated that winter grain conditions are better than last year--and better than average--throughout Russia. (Note that conditions for last year's crop were unusually bad because of widespread persistent dryness in fall 1998 that hampered winter-grain establishment.) Winterkill has been minimal so far this season: adequate snow cover protected winter grains from a late-November episode of frigid weather.
(View previous week's assessment, or current USDA area and production estimates for the former Soviet Union.)
For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0888.
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