000
FXUS63 KILX 310915
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
318 AM CST SUN OCT 31 2004

.DISCUSSION...MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT...THOUGH NOW HAVE SOME 
PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH SFC LOW. GFS NOW BRINGS IT FURTHER NORTH 
INTO EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...WHILE THE ETA KEEPS IT FURTHER SOUTH 
AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS. SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE 
MODELS FOR CONSISTENCY. 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
CLOUDS TO BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED 
WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS 
BY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO 
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM UP INTO THE 60S.

CONDITIONS TO GO DOWNHILL QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AS OVER RUNNING 
SETS UP IN FULL FORCE...WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK OF 
DEEP MOISTURE TO BE RESOLVED AS SFC RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION 
SLIDES TO THE EAST ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO 
THE MIDWEST. WITH PWS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH...40 KT PLUS LOW LEVEL 
JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER LVL JET OVERHEAD PROVIDING 
FOR ADDITIONAL LIFT...SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA TO HAVE LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAINFALL POSSIBLE...SO ADDED MENTION TO ZONES FOR LATE TONIGHT AND 
ON MONDAY.

MONDAY WILL REMAIN RATHER WET AND CHILLY WITH FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF 
CWA...SO TEMPS TO ONLY WARM UP ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS IN 
THE UPPER 40S.

RAIN WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE 
EASTERN HALF OF CWA. HOWEVER...SEVERAL ADDITIONAL WAVES WILL SWING 
THROUGH DEEP UPPER TROF ON TUESDAY...SO KEPT CHANCES OF RAIN 
IN...BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AN END MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLES KEEP 
AREA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...NEW EXTENDED GFS CONTINUES TO 
BRING WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP AREA DRY...BUT WILL HAVE TO 
SEE IF THIS TREND IN THE EXTENDED GFS CONTINUES.
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.IL...NONE.
&&

$$
BYRD