Release No. 0045.03

Raymond Bridge (202) 720-5447
Maria Bynum (202) 720-5192

USDA TO RELEASE NEW LONG-TERM BASELINE PROJECTIONS FEB. 7

     WASHINGTON, Feb. 5, 2003--The United States Department of Agriculture will release new 10-year agricultural baseline projections on Feb. 7.

     USDA provides long-term agricultural projections each year for use in preparing Federal budget estimates. USDA has published the projections each year in late February at the Department’s annual agricultural outlook forum. The publication schedule is being advanced this year to early February to more closely follow release of the President’s budget.

Additional Information USDA to release new long term agricultural projections on February 7th...13 days ahead of the USDA's Outlook Forum. (Gary Crawford and Keith Collins) Keith Collins, USDA Chief Economist, saying part of this years improved income picture will come from higher sales revenues. Economist expects farmers to be cautious spenders on new equipment and other capital improvements this year. (Gary Crawford and Keith Collins) USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2012 report (pdf)

     “USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2012” will be released Feb. 7 in electronic form on the Office of the Chief Economist website, http://www.usda.gov/oce.

     The full report will be available in printed form Feb. 20 at the USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. Copies can be ordered now from the National Technical Information Service at http://www.ntis.gov or 1-800-999-6779. Request document WAOB-2003-1.

     The baseline projections are developed by interagency committees in USDA, with the Economic Research Service (ERS) having the lead role in the preparation of the report. The new projections cover agricultural crop and livestock commodities, agricultural trade and aggregate indicators such as farm income and food prices through 2012. The baseline is not a USDA forecast about the future, but is instead a conditional, long-run scenario based on specific assumptions about farm policy, the weather, the economy and international developments. Provisions of the 2002 Farm Bill are incorporated into the baseline and are assumed to remain in effect throughout the projection period.

     Background on USDA’s long-term baseline projections and past issues of the report are available at the ERS website, http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/baseline.

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