Evaluation Branch

HURRICANE STORM SURGE
FORECASTING

The SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model computes storm surge heights from tropical cyclones. SLOSH model coverage includes all of the U.S.'s East and Gulf coastline, as well as parts of Hawaii, Guam, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.  Various "basins" have also been completed for the Peoples Republic of China and for India.  An example of a typical SLOSH "basin" is the Biloxi, Mississippi basin.  A sample animation of a model run (based on the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) best historical track) is shown for Hurricane Hugo.

The SLOSH model is the basis for the "hazard analysis" portion of coastal hurricane evacuation plans.  Hundreds of hypothetical hurricanes are simulated with various Saffir-Simpson categories, forward speeds, landfall directions, and landfall locations.  An envelope of high water containing the maximum value a grid cell attains is generated at the end of each model run.  These envelopes are combined by the NHC into various composites which depict the possible flooding.  One useful composite is the MEOW (Maximum Envelopes of Water) which incorporates all the envelopes for a particular category, speed, and landfall direction.  Another composite that is useful to emergency managers is the MOM (Maximum of the MEOW's), which combines all the MEOWs of a particular category.

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Image Credit: USA Today/Weather

For further information contact:

mailbox.gif   Dr. Wilson A. Shaffer - wilson.shaffer@noaa.gov
(301)713-1613