overview
The USDA baseline consists of 10-year projections for agriculture, assuming continuation of current farm law, as well as specific conditions for the economy, weather, and global situation. The projections were prepared in October through December 2003 prior to the diagnosis of a case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in an adult Holstein cow in Washington State in December 2003. Stronger domestic and international growth beginning in 2003 provides a favorable demand setting for the U.S. agricultural sector. Despite declines from a recent peak, a relatively strong U.S. dollar (by historical standards) and trade competition from countries such as Brazil, Argentina, and the Black Sea region are constraining factors on U.S. exports. Nonetheless, improving economic growth, particularly in developing countries, provides a foundation for gains in global consumption and trade. When combined with increased domestic demands for meat, feeds, horticultural products, corn used in ethanol production, and food use of rice, results are rising market prices, increases in U.S. farm income, and improvement in the financial condition of the U.S. agricultural sector.

The process of preparing the projections incorporates a composite of model results and judgement-based analysis. Beginning in 2003, the publication schedule changed to allow earlier release of the baseline. The individual chapters of this briefing room present assumptions and results from the 2004-13 baseline, released in February 2004. View the baseline highlights in full in HTML.

contents

• Summary of projections
• Macroeconomic assumptions
• U.S. crops
• U.S. livestock
• U.S. agricultural sector: Export value, farm income and finance, food prices and expenditures
• Global agricultural trade

USDA Baseline, 2004-13, for Cotton, Feed Grains, Rice, Soybeans, and Wheat provide background on supply and demand trends, underlying the baseline projections in USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2013, and summarize key results for these U.S. crop sectors.

recommended readings
The 2002 Farm Act: Provisions and Implications for Commodity Markets (November 2002) provides an initial assessment of the legislation's effects on agricultural production, commodity markets, and net farm income over the next 10 years. Results indicate that commodity market impacts are fairly small. Net farm income is projected higher than under a continuation of the 1996 Farm Act, largely reflecting an increase in government payments.

Pacific Food System Outlook 2003-2004, Where Demographics Will Take the Food System (October 2003) assesses the impact of expanded urbanization, variability in population growth and immigration, and aging populations on the Asia-Pacific food system. The ability of developing countries to adjust to rapid urbanization will be the most important demographic challenge, testing the region's capacity to deliver a steady flow of safe, reasonably priced food.

Analysis of the U.S. Commodity Loan Program with Marketing Loan Provisions (April 2001) illustrates that marketing loans have enabled farmers to attain, on average, per-unit revenues that exceed commodity loan rates, and assesses the impacts on production, use, and prices.

Previous baseline projections reports provides the complete departmental baseline reports, released in February 1997 through 2003, as well as ERS summary discussions of the projections.

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recommended data products
Baseline projection tables are available in WK1 format.

A database for the baseline is available, covering projections for major field crops and livestock.

Baseline international supply and use tables are available, covering supply, demand, and trade projections for major agricultural commodities.

recent research developments
Baseline projections. USDA analyzes information on agricultural commodities, trade, farm income, food prices, policy developments, and other factors to prepare long-term projections for the food and agriculture sector for the next 10 years. The next USDA Baseline will be released in February 2005. Contact: Paul Westcott

Baseline models. ERS is developing and upgrading economic models for analyzing commodity and country developments and trends, for use in the USDA baseline projections. Contact: Paul Westcott

questions and answers
Frequently asked questions about the USDA Baseline address the nature of the projections, timing of release, and how the projections are used.

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related links
Agricultural Outlook Forum. USDA's annual forum provides timely forecasts of prospects for the agricultural sector and insight on developments affecting the food and farm economy. Access information and presentations from recent years.

for more information, contact:
Paul Westcott, Ronald Trostle, or Edwin Young
web administration: webadmin@ers.usda.gov
page updated: May 19, 2004