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overview
Changes in the macroeconomy have major effects on agriculture. The
main factors linking the macroeconomy and agriculture are exchange
rates, consumer income, rural employment, and interest rates. International
and domestic macroeconomic shocks can cause major changes in the
values of these variables, resulting in changes in a country's agricultural
prices, production, consumption, and trade.
contents
feature
China: A Study of Dynamic Growth
assesses China's rapid economic growth since 1978, which has been
driven by high rates of investment, gains in productivity, and liberalized
foreign trade and investment. China's growth is likely to continue,
but the Chinese economy faces some potentially unsustainable pressures,
including possible currency appreciation, rising rural-urban inequality,
unemployment, banking reforms, and an unusual combination of inflationary
and deflationary tendencies.
recommended readings
U.S.
Food Sector Linked to Global Consumers assesses the influence
foreign markets are likely to have on U.S. food sector growth. Rising
incomes in low- and middle-income countries translate into increased
demand for food, particularly high-value products such as meat,
and increased food expenditures.
Macroeconomic Factors Behind the
Fall in Farm Interest Rates indicates that interest rates on
agricultural loans are determined by factors primarily outside of
agriculture. This article discusses the factors that led to the
fall in farm interest rates in 2001, as well as the farm interest
rate outlook for 2002.
U.S. Economy
in Recovery, Although Rural Areas Still Affected by Recession
finds that rural areas were disproportionately affected by recession
in 2001, even as recovery in the general economy began.
See all recommended readings...
recommended data products
The agricultural exchange rate data
set includes nominal and real exchange rates for 80 countries
on a monthly and annual basis beginning in January 1970. Agricultural
trade-weighted exchange rates are also calculated for U.S. agricultural
market countries, competitors, and suppliers.
For international data on real gross domestic product, population,
real exchange rates on a 2000 base, and other variables, see the
international macroeconomic data
set. Contains historical data from 1971 to 2003 and projections
to 2012.
recent research developments
Exchange Rates and U.S. Agriculture—Exchange rates
are a major determinant of variability in U.S. agricultural exports.
How important are exchange rate changes to the export situation
across various commodities and products? What is the exchange rate
elasticity of trade, and has it changed over time? What effect do
exchange rate changes have on U.S. prices and farm income? These
questions are being examined in a joint project with the University
of Minnesota. Contact: Matt
Shane.
The Aid-Trade Complex—What is the impact of development
assistance on U.S. agricultural exports? Some of our most intensive
assistance customers in the past—such as Japan, Taiwan, and
Korea—have become major markets for U.S. agricultural exports.
An ongoing analysis suggests that the form of assistance is important,
as well as the efficiency of recipient economies in transforming
assistance into income growth. Contact: Matt
Shane.
questions and answers
Important questions and answers
about macroeconomics and agriculture.
glossary
How are key macroeconomic terms relevant
for agriculture defined?
related briefing rooms
Agricultural baseline projections
Farm financial management
Farm income and costs
Food CPI, prices, and
expenditures
U.S. agricultural trade
related links
Links to international organizations, U.S. government agencies,
and university sites focused on macroeconomic analyses and data.
See all related links...
for more information, contact:
Mathew Shane, David Torgerson,
or Paul Sundell
web administration: webadmin@ers.usda.gov
page updated: October 20,
2004
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Also at ERS...
