overview
The United States is a major wheat producing country, with output typically exceeded only by China, the European Union, and, sometimes, India. In 2002, wheat ranked third among U.S. field crops in both planted acreage and gross farm receipts, behind corn and soybeans. Presently, almost half of the U.S. wheat crop is exported.

The U.S. wheat sector enters the 21st century facing many challenges, despite a strong domestic market for wheat products. U.S. wheat harvested area has dropped off 28 million acres, or nearly one-third from its peak in 1981, because of declining returns compared to other crops and alternative options under government programs. Despite rising global wheat trade, U.S. share of the world market has eroded in the past two decades.

contents

• Background
• Trade
• Market outlook
• Policy
• Estimating wheat supply and use

features
Black Sea Grain Exports: Will They Be Moderate or Large? examines the prospects for grain exports (mostly wheat) by the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe and the Newly Independent States that export through the Black Sea, the largest being Russia and Ukraine. If productivity growth in the region is high, annual grain exports by Black Sea countries could rise to 30-40 million metric tons.

USDA Wheat Baseline, 2004-13 provides background on supply and demand trends for wheat, underlying the baseline projections in USDA Agricultural Baseline Projections to 2013, and summarizes key results for the U.S. wheat sector.

recommended readings
Wheat Situation and Outlook Yearbook provides a summary of the market situation and outlook for wheat.

China's Wheat Economy: Current Trends and Prospects for Imports provides an overview of wheat production and consumption trends in China, including factors that contributed to slumping imports in recent years. It projects that China will regain its status as a net wheat importer, with imports rising sharply in the next year or two, but falling back to modest levels after that.

Characteristics and Production Costs of U.S. Wheat Farms reports that the average cost of producing a bushel of wheat in 1998 was $3.97, ranging from about $1.25 to more than $6 per bushel. Regional differences in production practices and growing conditions were major influences on production costs and yields among wheat producers.

See all recommended readings...

recommended data products
Monthly tables from Wheat Outlook contain the latest data on supply and disappearance, monthly food-use estimates, prices, exports, and imports.

Wheat yearbook tables include historical data covering domestic and foreign wheat production, trade, use, and prices by class of wheat.

Food Use and Trade tables include total wheat and durum food use and trade data by month and quarter, back to the 1990/91 crop market year. Files are in Excel (.xls) format.

• For more information on how these estimates are calculated, see estimating wheat supply and use.

Cost and returns data for domestic production is available at regional and national levels, back to 1975.

Foreign Agricultural Trade of the United States (FATUS) provides U.S. agricultural exports and imports, volume and value, by country, by commodity, and by calendar year, fiscal year, and month, for varying periods, such as 1935 to the present or 1989 to the present. Updated monthly or annually.

Production, Supply, and Distribution (PS&D) contains official USDA data on production, supply, and distribution of agricultural commodities for the United States and major importing and exporting countries. The database provides projections for the coming year and historical data for more than 200 countries and major crop, livestock, fishery, and forest products.

WTO Agricultural Trade Policy Commitments Database contains data on implementation of trade policy commitments by WTO member countries. Data on domestic support, export subsidies, and tariffs are organized for comparison across countries. This queriable database offers various options for viewing and downloading data.

recent research developments
A workshop, Understanding Demand Shifts for Grain-Based Foods, was held on September 28, 2004, at the University of Minnesota's Food Industry Center to bring together individuals from government, the food industry, and universities who have experience analyzing demand for grain-based food products, as well as knowledge of data sources for assessing and monitoring consumption trends. For more information, contact Jean Buzby.

newsletter
Wheat Outlook provides updates 11 months each year on current market developments affecting the wheat sector.

related briefing rooms
Agricultural baseline projections
U.S. agricultural trade
Farm and commodity policy
Farm income and costs
World Trade Organization (WTO)

related links
Additional data and information on wheat are available from other USDA Agencies and the Department of Commerce.

See all related links...

maps and images gallery
View the 1998 location of wheat planted area for each of the five classes of wheat.

for more information, contact: Gary Vocke or Edward Allen
web administration: webadmin@ers.usda.gov
page updated: October 27, 2004