000
FXUS62 KMLB 060747
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
247 AM EST SAT NOV 6 2004

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...MID/UPPER CLOUDINESS BEING SWEPT OUT EARLY THIS 
MORNING BY SHORTWAVE/JET MAX CROSSING THE PENINSULA. MARINE STRATOCU 
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT ONSHORE TODAY WITH LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY 
FLOW ESTABLISHED BETWEEN LOW LEVEL TROF THAT HAS DEVELOPED OFF SE FL 
COAST AND RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH EXTENDING FROM MEXICO ACROSS GULF 
COAST STATES. MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS 
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS HEADING TOWARD SE COASTAL SECTIONS 
WHERE CLOUDS WILL VARY BETWEEN BROKEN AND SCATTERED. AN ISOLATED 
COASTAL SHOWER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SOUTHERN SECTIONS BUT CHANCES 
REMOTE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A LOW POP IN GRIDDED FIELDS ONLY. HIGH 
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. PERSISTENCE OF 
NELY FLOW TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BRING MORE MARINE STRATOCU ONSHORE 
COASTAL AREAS AND MODERATE TEMPS FROM THE COOLER NORTHERN INTERIOR 
WHERE TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER/MID 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/BEHIND THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS IN THE 
ATLANTIC WILL DRAW A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS INTO NORTH/CENTRAL 
FLORIDA. AFTER A SERIES OF NEAR RECORD DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 
80S THIS PAST WEEK...IT SHOULD BE QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN 
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AND...MORE IMPORTANT...MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS. 
THE FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY 
SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...BAHAMA ISLANDS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. 
SHIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT... 
VORTICITY AND DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A 250MB JET STREAK THAT 
ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CARIBBEAN AND 
TURNS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT OF THE TROUGH SPINS UP A SURFACE 
WAVE ON WHATS LEFT OF THE FRONT THAT PUSHED ACROSS FLORIDA SATURDAY. 
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AS THE GRADIENT 
OVER WATER BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE 
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO TIGHTEN. COMBINATION 
OF MARINE LAYER STRATOCU AND NORTHEAST FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL 
HOLD BACK MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THEIR CLIMO VALUES 
AND OVERNIGHT MINS ALONG THE COAST A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER. 
LOWERING CHANCE/30 POPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO A SILENT 10 
PERCENT. STABLE NORTHEAST MARINE FLOW IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SHOWERS 
AND EXTENDED GFS FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ALL BUT NON EXISTENT. 


&&

.MARINE...WINDS RUNNING AOB 20KT AT BUOY 41009 EARLY THIS MORNING. 
SOME DECREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL 
NEED TO STAY IN PLACE WITH MORNING PACKAGE. GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND A 
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TIGHTENS 
MONDAY AND REMAINS TIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH 
REMOVED FROM FLORIDA...THE MAJOR IMPACT OF THIS INCREASING GRADIENT 
OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL BE NORTHEAST SWELLS GENERATED BY THE STRONG 
WINDS. LATEST WAVE WATCH MODEL RUN HAS 7 FOOT/PLUS NORTHEAST 
SEAS/SWELLS PROPAGATING IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY TUESDAY AND 
CONTINUING UNTIL SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  56  77  56 /   0   0   0   0 
MCO  77  55  80  55 /   0   0   0   0 
MLB  77  60  78  61 /   0   0   0   0 
VRB  78  59  79  63 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH TO JUPITER INLET.
...FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES ST JOHNS RIVER NEAR SANFORD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GLITTO
LONG TERM...WIMMER