Photo courtesy of M.A.
Draper, Parana State, Brazil |
Soybean rust is a plant disease that has reduced
yields and raised production costs for soybeans and other
legumes in every major production region of the world—except
the United States. However, with the recent and rapid spread
of the windborne pathogen in South America, most experts agree
that the question isn’t if, but when, it will enter
the U.S. via natural spread. An outbreak could pose economic
risks for producers and consumers, and affect agricultural
and environmental programs, such as crop insurance, commodity
programs, research and extension, and pesticide regulations.
An ERS study shows that the economic effects of the pathogen’s
entry into the U.S. could vary considerably, depending on
the timing, location, spread, and severity of the disease
and on the responses of soybean and other crop producers,
livestock producers, and consumers. Economic losses to U.S.
producers and consumers could range from $640 million to $1.3
billion in the first year of infestation. In the 3-5 years
following establishment, losses could average between $240
million and $2.4 billion per year, depending on the geographical
extent and severity of annual outbreaks. The wide range in
estimates reflects the uncertainty associated with the effects
of the disease in the United States. But even the high-end
estimates are less than 1 percent of the total economic activity
associated with U.S. soybean production and consumption—a
finding that confirms the resiliency and adaptability of U.S.
agriculture.
Soybean producers would likely bear 60-70 percent
of the costs of adjusting to periodic soybean rust outbreaks
in the U.S., with consumers and livestock producers bearing
the balance. The outbreaks would likely cause agricultural
producers, especially soybean growers, to change production
practices (for example, to use fungicides and, for some, to
alter their crop mix). While producers would have limited
management options during the first year of a rust outbreak,
these options could increase over time as producers gain new
information or as new pest management technologies become
available.
The effects of the disease could vary considerably by region.
For example, the Eastern U.S. may be more susceptible than
other regions to rust infestation because of temperature,
relative humidity, and rainfall during the growing season.
Fortunately, most U.S. soybean production occurs in the middle
part of the country where climate is less supportive of infestation.
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