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invasive species management—FY2003 PREISM awards


FY 2003 PREISM Competitive Grants and Cooperative Agreements

Title: Integrating Prevention and Control of Invasive Species: Lessons from Hawaii
Principal Investigator: James Roumasset
Affiliation: University of Hawaii, University Sponsored Programs Office, Honolulu, HI
Award: $200,000

The objective of this research is to inform Federal and State level decision makers with respect to allocating scarce resources between exclusion and control strategies for different types of pests. The project will employ a dynamic optimal control methodology to examine exclusion and control strategies for three representative pests: an established invader, a potentially explosive invader not yet introduced, and an eradicable or controllable invader. Prior to introduction, the methodology minimizes the expected costs of prevention expenditures, which are dependent on the expected outcomes of a successful introduction. Optimal control after initial introduction of a species can take the form of maintenance of a steady-state pest population, periodic episodes of attempted eradication, or no control.


Title: Integrating Economics and Biology for Bioeconomic Risk Assessment/Management of Invasive Species in Agriculture
Principal Investigator: Jason Shogren
Affiliation: University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY
Award: $185,000

This interdisciplinary project will extend the development and application of bioeconomic modeling frameworks to integrate economic and biological feedbacks to improve risk assessments for and policy responses to invasive species that affect U.S. agriculture. The modeling frameworks include bioeconomic endogenous risk stochastic dynamic programming, optimal control/STELLA modeling, and computable general equilibrium ecosystems models. The applicability of research results to general USDA invasive species policy will be demonstrated by assessing the potential for using biological agents to control leafy spurge and purple loosestrife.


Title: Comparing Cost, Risk and Benefit Tradeoffs Under Uncertainty: Cheatgrass Case Study
Principal Investigator: Dennis M. King
Affiliation: University of Maryland, Cambridge, MD,
Award: $87,500

Many agricultural weeds are well studied but most of the potential new weed invaders have not been characterized in terms of their possible impact or reversibility. This project will develop methods to help overcome these gaps in our knowledge and to illustrate practical and credible components of decision support tools to help justify and prioritize regional responses to invasive plants on agricultural and natural lands. The project will examine the role of human alteration of landscapes in invasive species diffusion and assess the potential for spatial (GIS) databases to be used in an analysis of economic impacts of invasions and the irreversibility of invasions. The empirical application will be to cheatgrass but the methods use to develop maps and cost surfaces will be broadly applicable across a range of potential invaders and thus have relevance to USDA invasive species policy generally.


Title: The Feasibility of Indemnification and Check-off Funded Programs to Manage Invasive Species Risks in Agriculture
Principal Investigator: Barry K. Goodwin
Affiliation: North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC
Award: $158,000

This project will evaluate economic issues associated with the design and operation of voluntary insurance and mandatory check-off programs that provide assistance for agricultural producers’ management of risks associated with invasive species. The project will also include statistical modeling of the risk associated with three case studies with the objective of pricing insurance or determining optimal check-off contribution rates. The case studies to be examined are karnal bunt, Asiatic citrus canker, and Canadian thistle


Title: Commodity Programs, Distorted Markets and Economic Consequences of Invasive Species Policies
Principal Investigator: Daniel A. Sumner
Affiliation: University of California, Davis, CA
Award: $75,000

This project will examine the economic implications of invasive species policy within the context of trade and agricultural policies, such as commodity programs and crop insurance. Such analyses could be useful to USDA policy makers in developing overall priorities and response strategies for invasive species. The analytical framework will emphasize welfare analysis, trade, and modeling how agricultural programs influence markets. An important contribution of the research will be applying concepts from the literature on the economics of R&D to the problem of invasive species. The framework will be demonstrated by application to four invasive pests of particular interest to U.S. agriculture - citrus canker, foot and mouth disease, karnal bunt, and rice blast.


Title: Biology and Economics of Invasive Species: Spatial and Temporal Interactions
Principal Investigator: Colin A. Carter
Affiliation: University of California, Davis, CA
Award: $145,000

This project will examine the spatial and temporal linkages between agricultural markets and invasive species infestations using greenhouse whitefly infestations of California strawberries as a case study. The objectives are to construct a general bioeconomic model of invasive species that can be used to evaluate alternative management strategies, to conduct a sensitivity analysis regarding the effects of key variables, to assess management alternatives specific to whitefly infestations in California strawberries, and to summarize findings in a way that is useful to policymakers.

Title: Economics of Managing Infectious Wildlife Disease When Livestock Are at Risk
Principal Investigator: Richard D. Horan
Affiliation: Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI
Award: $129,000

This project focuses on the economic issues associated with trying to control an invasive species, in the form of a wildlife transmitted disease, that puts U.S. livestock production at risk. The modeling framework accounts for the biological and economic factors that jointly determine how invasive species, wildlife and livestock ecosystems, and human economic activities interact. The empirical application examines economic tradeoffs associated with bovine tuberculosis (TB) control options on and off the farm, and compares and contrasts social incentives with private (i.e., farmer and hunter) incentives for investing in TB control options and making decisions that affect disease transmission risk. The project also links spatial aspects of bovine TB with agricultural sector research. Finally, the idea that human activities affect disease spread parameters is an important element easily overlooked in epidemiological and biological modeling. Hence, this research could have widespread applications in regulatory impact analyses by providing a formal means to examine the economic (non biological) factors that can affect spread of disease.


Title: Randomly Introduced Biological Invasions: The Economics of Prevention and Control
Principal Investigator: Lars J. Olson
Affiliation: University of Maryland, College Park, MD
Award: $119,000

This project addresses key invasive species policy issues concerning the tradeoffs between prevention, control, and eradication efforts. It will employ a dynamic optimization framework that includes ecological conditions, potential economic damages, and the costs of prevention and control. In addition, the project will include consideration of when it makes sense to do nothing, and how to factor in the possible re-invasion of a damaging species. These are important issues confronting USDA, and successful completion of the project will inform development and implementation of invasive species policies and regulations.


Title: Design of Systems Approaches to Invasive Pest Risk Management
Principal Investigator: David Orden
Affiliation: Virginia Polytechnic Institute, Blacksburg, VA,
Award: $108,000

The objective of this research is to formulate an evaluation methodology for regulations that adopt a "systems approach" to reducing invasive pest risks associated with imports. A systems approach consists of a sequential series of measures that are designed to progressively reduce the risk of infestation. A pest-risk probability model will be developed to determine the overall reduction in the probability of pest infestation for each system as well as the marginal risk reduction for each step within each system. Using the results from the pest-risk probability model, the potential impacts on production, consumption, trade, and producer and consumer welfare for each alternative system will be determined using a spatial partial equilibrium model. The goal of this research is develop a means for determining regulations that achieve appropriate levels of risk protection and expected economic benefits.


Title: Modeling the Effects of Invasive Species on the International Trade of Forest Products
Principal Investigator: Jeffrey P. Prestemon
Affiliation: USDA Forest Service, Southern Research station, Asheville, NC
Award: $101,981

This research will focus on the economic effects of a variety of trade regulations aimed at preventing the accidental importation of invasive species that could damage US forest resources. The work builds on an existing model, the Global Forest Product Model, which is a spatial partial equilibrium model that makes projections of forest product quantities produced, consumed, and traded for multiple countries and commodities. This operational partial equilibrium model would be extended to incorporate bilateral trade flows and incorporate cost of compliance estimates of various import protocols. The research will consider the losses incurred by producer and consumers due to timber inventory reductions and supply shifts caused by invasive species in the absence of regulation, as well as the full economic effects of phytosanitary regulations that protect forest resources but restrict trade.


Title: Tradeoffs and Resource Allocation Effects for Alternative Invasive Species Management Policies
Principal Investigator: Thomas I. Wahl
Affiliation: Washington State University, Pullman, WA
Award: $100,000

This project examines the tradeoffs between the benefits of trade and the economic risks from the establishment of an invasive species. The analysis will address the economic consequences of alternative response strategies including prevention and/or control activities carried out in foreign countries, at U.S. ports of entry, and within the United States. The modeling framework includes both biological and economic components and distinguishes between risk assessment and risk management. More specifically, the project will develop a dynamic economic framework that integrates population dynamics, production functions, inventory updating, consumer demand, and market clearing conditions that allow for international trade.


Title: Controlling Exotic Species Introductions: Trade Related Policies and Exposure
Principal Investigator: Christopher J. Costello
Affiliation: University of California, Santa Barbara, CA
Award; $68,000

This project’s awardees will develop theoretical and empirical models to analyze the physical and economic tradeoffs and complementarities between various ex-ante policy tools, such as trade bans, port inspections, and pre-export certifications, to mitigate the risks associated with invasive species that are introduced via international trade. Both the general equilibrium and partial equilibrium aspects of trade will be examined. The research will review how U.S. exposure to harmful exotic pests varies with the ecological characteristics of its trade partners and the economic structure of the industries producing traded goods. This information will be synthesized into a series of coupled models, which will help identify optimal policies to control the damages from exotic species introductions.

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page updated: August 2, 2004

 

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