Renewable
Resources in the U.S. Electricity Supply
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Available Formats |
| PDF (1 meg) |
Many renewable resources are relative newcomers to the electric power market. In particular, electricity generation using geothermal, wind, solar, and MSW resources have had their greatest expansion in the 1980's. This was a result of significant technological improvements, the implementation of favorable Federal and State policies, and the reaction to the increasing costs of using fossil and nuclear fuels. The use of renewable resources for electricity generation has also been encouraged as less environmentally damaging than fossil fuels. Because renewable energy is available domestically, renewable resources are viewed as more secure than imported fossil fuels.
This report, Renewable Resources in the U.S. Electricity Supply, presents descriptions of the history, current use, and forecasted future applications of renewable resources for electricity generation and of the factors that influence those applications.
Renewable resources account for more than 93 percent of total U.S. energy resources. Geothermal, solar, and wind resources are particularly plentiful, raising prospects for their expanded use in the future. However, today renewable resources are usually not economically accessible, and annually contribute only 7.4 percent of the Nation's marketed (bought or sold) energy consumption for all purposes, including for electricity.
Renewable resources are used for electricity supply today where natural resources, electricity demands, and public policies combine to make them competitive. For these reasons, the uses of geothermal, solar, and wind resources have been most frequently found in California.
Many different scenarios for the future of the U.S. economy, energy markets, and renewable resources can be envisioned. The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) long-term projections used in the Annual Energy Outlook 1993 portray future conditions based upon what is currently known or reasonably likely to occur. From these forecasts, some general conclusions emerge.
First, as technologies and market experiences improve, renewable resources are likely to increase their contributions to the U.S. electricity supply (Table ES-1). Nationwide, electricity generation from renewable energy is projected to grow at a rate averaging 1.8 percent per year through 2010, expanding at a somewhat higher rate than total U.S. electricity generation. On a regional basis, renewable resources could make more significant contributions where they are available and the costs of alternatives are higher. Nevertheless, renewable resources are not likely to replace fossil fuels as the major contributors to electricity supply over the next two decades.
The use of renewable resources other than hydroelectricity should increase very rapidly. According to the EIA Reference Case projections, electricity generation using MSW, biomass, and geothermal resources is projected to increase significantly, from 56 billion kilowatthours in 1990 to 175 billion kilowatthours in 2010. Through 2010, electricity generation using geothermal resources will grow at a rate averaging over 7 percent annually, and the use of MSW is expected to grow at a rate of over 9 percent annually through 2010. Wind-powered electricity generation is projected to increase, growing more than 10 percent annually, from 2 billion kilowatthours in 1990 to 16 billion kilowatthours in 2010.
Second, conventional hydroelectric power, the mainstay of renewable resources in electric power today, is unlikely to enjoy rapid growth under current expectations, even if more favorable regulatory policies emerge. The lack of many additional large sites for hydroelectric facilities constrains major hydroelectric power growth. However, the rapid growth in the use of other renewable resources should offset the slow growth in hydropower, allowing renewable resources to slightly increase their current share of the electricity market during the forecast period.
If renewable resources are to provide a greater share of the Nation's electricity supply, the costs of using them will need to decline relative to alternatives. In some cases, such as wind and solar thermal generation, small improvements in generating costs may significantly increase their market penetration. In other cases, such as photovoltaic and most forms of geothermal power, large cost reductions are needed to spur greater market penetration. Of course, other events may also work to accelerate the use of renewable resources. Increases in fossil-fuel costs and additional environmental regulations on fossil-fueled plants could make the use of renewable resources economically more attractive. In addition, social policies, including favorable tax treatments or other forms of assistance, could promote interest in renewable resource use.
Table ES1. U.S. Electricity Net Generation Using Renewable Resources, 1990 and 2010| 1990 | Reference Case | Annual
Percentage Rate of Growth 1990-2010a |
|
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | |||
| Conventional Hydroelectric | 288 | 306 | 0.3 |
| Geothermal | 15 | 62 | 7.2 |
| Municipal Solid Waste | 10 | 54 | 8.5 |
| Biomass | 31 | 59 | 3.2 |
| Solarb | 1 | 4 | 9.2 |
| Wind | 2 | 16 | 10.4 |
| Total, Renewable Resources | 348 | 501 | 1.8 |
| Fossil/Storage/Other | 2,098 | 2,975 | 1.8 |
| Nuclear. | 577 | 636 | 0.5 |
| Total Generation | 3023 | 4,112 | 1.5 |
| aAnnual
percentage rates of growth are calculated using unrounded values.
bIncludes solar thermal and less than 0.02 billion kilowatthours grid-connected photovoltaic generation. Notes: Totals may not equal sum of components due to independent rounding. Electric utility generation data exclude internal generating station use (net); nonutility data include internal use (gross). Sources: Energy Information Administration. 1990 data: For utilities, EIA-861, "Annual Electric Utility Report" for nonutilities, EIA-867, "Annual Nonutility Power Producer Report." 2010 projections: Annual Energy Outlook 1993, DOE/EIA-0383(93), AEO 1993 Forecasting System run AEO93B.D0918921 (Washington, DC, January 1993). |
|||