Responses to Congressional/Other Requests
Analysis Papers
State Renewable Energy Requirements and Goals: Status Through 2003 - (07/21/2004) - HTML, PDF
This paper provides a summary of state renewable portfolio standards, renewable energy mandates, and voluntary goals as of the end of 2003 in 15 states. The paper identifies key characteristics of the programs—including their requirements and target time frame for compliance, acceptable and excluded renewable energy sources, alternatives to building new capacity, and potential sanctions. It also provides a summary of the amount of new renewable energy capacity constructed in response to the programs through the end of 2003.
Biodiesel Performance, Costs, and Use - (06/08/2004) - HTML, PDF
Biodiesel fuel for diesel engines is produced from vegetable oil or animal fat by the chemical process of esterification. This paper presents a brief history of diesel engine technology and an overview of biodiesel, including performance characteristics, economics, and potential demand. The performance and economics of biodiesel are compared with those of petroleum diesel.
The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook - (12/16/03) - HTML, PDF
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) is expected to play an increasingly important role in the natural gas industry and in global energy markets in the next several years. This paper characterizes the global LNG market and examines recent trends and future prospects.
Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation - (11/19/2003) - HTML, PDF, Errata - (07/14/2004)
This paper evaluates the accuracy of the projections published in the Annual Energy Outlook, by comparing projected data from the Annual Energy Outlook 1982 through the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 with actual historical values. Major variables on consumption, production, net imports, price, economics, and carbon dioxide emissions are included in the evaluation. This paper also summarizes some of the reasons for significant differences between the projections and actual historical values.
Price Responsiveness in the AEO2003 NEMS Residential and Commercial Buildings Sector Models - (10/2003) - HTML, PDF
This paper describes the demand responses to changes in energy prices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2003 versions of the Residential and Commercial Demand Modules of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). It updates a similar paper completed for the Annual Energy Outlook 1999 version of the NEMS. It discusses several changes that have been made to the buildings modules and in technology data. Both short-run and long-run own-price and cross-price elasticities are described. Results for permanent price increases and temporary shocks are also discussed.
Status and Impact of State MTBE Bans - (03/10/2003) - HTML, PDF
This paper describes legislation passed in 16 States banning or restricting the use of MTBE in gasoline. Analysis of the status and impact of these State MTBE bans is provided along with a discussion of the potential impact on supply and gasoline prices.
Measuring Changes in Energy Efficiency for the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - (07/2002) - HTML, PDF
This paper describes the construction of an aggregate energy efficiency index based on projections of sectoral and subsector energy consumption and subsector-specific energy service indicators. The results are compared with the ratio of energy to real gross domestic product, which typically is presented as a measure of energy intensity.
Biomass for Electricity Generation - (07/2002) - HTML, PDF
This paper examines issues affecting the uses of biomass for electricity generation. It discusses the methodology and underlying assumptions used in the National Energy Modeling System to account for various types of biomass.
U.S. Natural Gas Markets: Relationship Between Henry Hub Spot Prices and U.S. Wellhead Prices - (07/2002) - HTML, PDF
This paper examines the relationship between Henry Hub spot prices for natural gas and the U.S. wellhead price for the period from August 1996 through December 2000. It discusses the extent to which the two price series are linearly correlated and evaluates the statistical properties of two simple price relationships—the actual difference and the percent difference. The results of the analysis indicate that there is a strong linear relationship between the two price series.
Delivered Energy Consumption Projections by Industry in the Annual Energy Outlook 2002 - (06/2002) - HTML, PDF
This paper presents delivered energy consumption and intensity projections for the industries included in the industrial sector of the National Energy Modeling System. Delivered energy consumption for the industrial sector as a whole is routinely reported in the Annual Energy Outlook, but detailed projections for each of the groupings within the industrial sector are not generally discussed. The detailed projections in this paper are grouped into three categories: energy-intensive manufacturing sectors, non-intensive manufacturing sectors, and non-manufacturing industries. The results for the three groups are discussed, as well as results for the industries within each group.
Power Plant Emissions Reductions Using a Generation Performance
Standard - (05/01/2001) - HTML,
PDF
In an earlier analysis completed in response to a request received from Representative David McIntosh, Chairman of the Subcommittee on National Economic Growth, Natural Resources, and Regulatory Affairs, the Energy Information Administration analyzed
the impacts of power sector caps on nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and
carbon dioxide emissions, assuming a policy instrument patterned after
the sulfur dioxide allowance program created in the Clean Air Act Amendments
of 1990. This paper compares the results of that work with the results
of an analysis that assumes the use of a dynamic generation performance
standard as an instrument for reducing carbon dioxide emissions. In general,
the results of the two analyses are similar: to reduce carbon dioxide
emissions the power sector is expected to turn away from coal-fired generation
to natural gas and, to a lesser extent, renewables.
Energy Price Impacts on the U.S. Economy - (04/10/2001)
- HTML
This paper uses a Q&A format to address selected issues regarding the impact of energy prices on the U.S. economy. For example, how the share of energy in the economy has changed since the 1970s; a historical perspective on the relationship between energy prices and economic growth; the impact of recent events on near term economic growth; the economy's reaction to volatile energy prices; and the impact of oil price movements on other countries.
Impact of Technological Change and Productivity on the Coal Market - (11/2000) - HTML, PDF
The strong pace of improvement in coal industry labor productivity has been a major reason for the decline in coal minemouth prices that has taken place since 1979. The Annual Energy Outlook 2000 forecasts that labor productivity on a national basis will improve on average at a rate of 2.3 percent per year between 1998 and 2020, declining from an annual rate of 6.1 percent achieved over the 1988 to 1997 period. This paper examines the components of past gains in productivity, including regional shifts, the exit of less productive producers, technological progress, and future prospects for continuing productivity gains at sustained, but lower, rates of improvement.
The Electric Transmission Network: A Multi-Region Analysis - (08/2000) - HTML, PDF
As competitive electricity markets become more widespread, interregional power trading is likely to increase. Any increase in interregional trading will place additional demands on the electric transmission network. This paper examines the ability of the existing transmission network to respond efficiently to increased trade over four reliability regions in the northeastern United States. A power flow model is used to analyze the potential for expanding electricity trade, given the operational constraints of the transmission system and the availability and cost of generators. Results summarized include, impacts on marginal costs of electricity, regional variations in costs, interregional trade levels, and local transmission operations. The study finds that the potential for increased trade, while significant, is limited by congestion on the transmission network, especially with regard to the New York-New England interface.
Modeling Distributed Electricity Generation in the NEMS Buildings Models - (08/2000) - HTML, PDF
Distributed generation refers to the production of electricity in a decentralized facility, such as an office building. Currently, the building modules in the National Energy Modeling System characterize several distributed generation technologies: conventional oil or gas engine generation, combustion turbine technologies, and newer, still developing technologies such as solar photovoltaics (PV), fuel cells, and microturbines. This paper describes the modeling techniques, assumptions, and results for the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 reference case. In addition, a series of alternative distributed generation simulations are described and key results presented.
Impacts of Unconventional Gas Technology in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000 - (08/2000) - HTML, PDF
U.S. natural gas demand is projected to exceed 30 trillion cubic feet per year within two decades. To meet this demand producers will increasingly rely on production from unconventional gas such as tight sands, coalbed methane, and gas shales. Because of the technical difficulties inherent with developing such resources, technology will necessarily play a vital role in their future. This paper describes the methodology used in the National Energy Modeling System for unconventional gas technologies and their impact on projections in the Annual Energy Outlook 2000.
Outlook for Biomass Ethanol Production and Demand - (07/2000) - HTML, PDF
The technology used to produce ethanol from corn is mature and is not likely to experience significant cost reductions in the future. The ability to produce ethanol from low-cost biomass will be key to making it competitive as a gasoline additive. If Department of Energy goals are met, the cost of producing ethanol could be reduced by as much as 60 cents per gallon by 2015 with cellulosic conversion technology. This paper presents a midterm forecast for biomass ethanol production under three different technology cases for the period 2000 to 2020, based on projections developed with the Energy Information Administration’s National Energy Modeling System. An overview of cellulose conversion technology and various feedstock options and a brief history of ethanol usage in the United States are also presented.
OIAF Data Products and Analysis - (06/19/2000) - HTML
This brochure describes mid-term forecast and analysis, and greenhouse data products produced by the Energy Information Administration's Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting.
Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1999 - (09/09/99) - HTML, PDF - Errata (9/9/99)
This report includes a series of eight papers (six are listed below), which cover topics in analysis and modeling that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1999, as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets.
- Trends in Power Plant Operating Costs
- Sectoral Pricing in a Restructured Electricity Market
- Modeling the Costs of U.S. Wind Supply
- Modeling Technology Learning in the National Energy Modeling System
- Employment Trends in Oil and Gas Extraction
- Price Responsiveness in the NEMS Building Sector Unit
The Outlook for U.S. Coal Markets Through 2020 - (07/21/99) - HTML
This paper provides a mid-term framework for examining some of the issues confronting the coal industry based on projections from the Annual Energy Outlook 1999.
Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998 - (07/1998)
- HTML,
PDF
This report includes a series of nine papers (seven are listed below), which cover topics in analysis and modeling
that underlie the Annual Energy Outlook 1998,
as well as other significant issues in midterm energy markets.
- Competitive Electricity Prices: An Update
- An Exploration of Network Modeling: The Case of NEPOOL
- Modeling Technological Change and Diffusion in the Buildings Sector
- The Importance of Location and Housing Type with Respect to Future Residential Sector Energy Use
- Measures of Oil Import Dependence
- Motor Fuels Tax Trends and Assumptions
- Coal Pricing Methodology for the Annual Energy Outlook 1998
Competitive Electricity Prices: An Update (July 2, 1998)
- PDF
This paper updates an earlier paper, Electricity Prices in a Competitive
Environment: Marginal Cost Pricing of Generation Services and Financial
Status of Electric Utilities, (August 1997). This paper appeared in
Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting 1998.
Electricity Prices in Competitive Environment: Marginal Cost Pricing of Generation Services and Financial Status of Electric Utilities (August 13, 1997) - PDF
This paper presents some of the potential impacts of the competitive pricing of electricity in the United States, based on widely accepted principles of economic theory.