International Energy Outlook 2004 Brochure

Brochure cover for the International Energy Annual 2004. Brochure title: International Energy Outlook 2004

Figure 1. World Energy Consumption by Fuel Type

Figure 1 . This is a line graph showing world energy consumption by fuel type (oil, natural gas, coal, renewables, and nuclear) with history and projection data from 1970-2025. For further information, contact: National Energy Information Center, (202) 586-8800.

In the IEO2004 reference case, world energy consumption is pro-jected to increase by 54 percent between 2001 and 2025, rising to 623 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu).

Oil remains the dominant energy source worldwide through 2025, with 60 percent of the world’s increment in demand projected to occur in the United States and developing Asia.

Natural gas is projected to be the fastest-growing primary energy source. Gas use is expected to increase by 67 percent in the reference case, and by 2025 it exceeds coal use by 12 percent.

Figure 2. World Energy Consumption by Region

Figure 2. This figure is also a line graph for world energy consumption by region (industrialized, developing, and EE/FSU [East Europe and Former Soviet Union] countries). The graph shows history and projection data from 1970-2025. For further information, contact: National Energy Information Center, (202) 586-8800.

In the IEO2004, much of the growth in worldwide energy use is projected for the developing world, particularly in developing Asia where consumption doubl-es between 2001 and 2025.

Industrialized nations can be characterized as mature en- ergy consumers with compara-tively slow population growth. Energy use in the industrialized world is expected to grow at 1.2 percent per year, compared to the 2.7 percent per year projected for the developing world.

Table 1.

Table 1. This table breaks down world energy consumption , 2001-2025, by fuel and region in quadrillion Btu's and million tons of oil equivalent, with an average annual percent change. For further information, contact: National Energy Information Center, (202) 586-8800.

Table 2.

Table 2. This table shows the data for world carbon dioxide emissions and carbon dioxide intensity for 1990-2025. For further information, contact: National Energy Information Center, (202)586-8800.

Figure 3. World Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Region

Figure 3 is a line graph showing world carbon dioxide emissions by region with history and projection data (1970-2025) for industrialized, developing, and EE/FSU countries, and a total. For further information, contact: National Energy Information Center, (202)586-8800.

In the IEO2004, carbon dioxide emissions rise from 23.9 billion metric tons in 2001 to 27.7 billion metric tons in 2010 and 37.1 billion metric tons in 2025.

Much of the growth in carbon dioxide emissions is expected in the developing world, accom-panying the large increases in fossil fuel use projected for the region’s emerging economies. At the end of the forecast horizon, emissions in the developing world are expected to exceed those of the industrialized countries.

Figure 4. Carbon Dioxide Intensity by Selected Countries and Regions

Figure 4 is s horizontal bar chart showing carbon dioxide intensity by selected countries (Russia, China, India, Africa, Mexico, Canada, Australia/New Zealand,United States, Germany, Japan, and France) and by regions (other former Soviet Union, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Central and South America). For further information, contact: National Energy Information Center, (202) 586-8800.

World carbon dioxide intensity has improved (decreased) substantially over the past three decades, falling from 1,100 metric tons per million 1997 dollars of GDP in 1970 to 739 metric tons per million 1997 dollars of GDP in 2001.

On a regional basis, the most rapid rates of improvement for carbon dioxide intensity are projected for Russia and the other countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU). In the FSU, economic recovery from the upheaval of the early 1990s, along with the replacement of old, inefficient capital stock is expected to result in a 48 percent decline in carbon dioxide intensity between 2001 and 2025.

Figure 5. World Oil Prices in Three Cases

Figure 5 is a vertical bar chart showing history and projection data for world oil prices in three cases (low oil price case, reference case, and high oil price case) from 1970 -2025. For further infromation, contact: National Energy Information Center, (202) 586-8800.

World oil prices rose by almost $10 per barrel over the course of 2002 and remained high throughout 2003 and into 2004.

Short-term price movements do not affect the mid-term price projections, 5 to 10 years out. After 2004, prices fall to $25 per barrel in 2002 dollars and then rise slowly to 2025, reaching $27 per barrel in 2002 dollars (in nominal dollars $51 per barrel).

Figure 6. World Oil Consumption and Production by Region

Figure 6 is a vertical bar chart showing world oil consumprion (2001-2025) by region (other, developing Asia, and industrialized countries), and world oil production (2001-2025) by region (other, EE/FSU, and OPEC countries). For further information, contact: National Energy Information Center, (202) 586-8800.

Oil use is projected to rise to 121 million barrels per day by 2025. Most of this increase occurs in the transportation sector. In the developing count-ries, other oil uses also expand as emerging economies switch away from traditional fuels, like wood burning for home heating and cooking, to diesel genera-tors and to fuel petrochemical feedstock industries.

OPEC’s share of world oil supply is projected to increase significantly over the forecast horizon. Nearly 60 percent of the increase in world oil demand over the next two decades is expected to be supplied by OPEC.

For Further Information, Contact:

The National Energy Information Center
Washington, DC 20585
Telephone: (202)586-8800
E-Mail: infoctr@eia.doe.gov

Visit EIA's Web Site...
www.eia.doe.gov