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Annual
Energy Outlook
With
Projections to 2025
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Figure1.
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In the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 projected
world oil prices increase from $23.68 per barrel (2002 dollars)
in 2002 to $27.00 per barrel in 2025, as world oil demand increases.
In nominal dollars, the average world oil price reaches about
$52.00 per barrel in 2025.
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Average natural gas prices are projected to
increase from $2.95 per thousand cubic feet (2002 dollars) in
2002 to $4.90 per cubic feet in 2003, declining to $3.40 per
thousand cubic feet in 2010 as the initial availability of new
import sources (such as LNG) increase supply. After 2010,
wellhead prices increase gradually, reaching $4.40 per thousand
cubic feet by 2025.
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Projected average electricity prices (2002
dollars) decline from 7.2 to a low of 6.6 cents per kilowatthour
between 2002 and 2007 as a result of cost reductions in an increasingly
competitive market. After 2007, real electricity prices
are projected to increase, reaching 6.9 cents per kilowatthour
in 2025 due mainly to increased generation costs.
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Figure 2.
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Through 2025, projected energy use per dollar
of gross domes- tic product declines 1.5 percent per year and
per capita energy consumption increases by 0.7 per year. Efficiency
gains and structural shifts in the economy to less-energy-intensive
in- dustries partially offset growth in the demand for energy
services, which results from population growth and projected
economic growth of 0.8 and 3.0 percent per year, respectively.
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Figure 3.
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Projected primary energy demand grows at a rate
of 1.5 percent per year through 2025. Improved equipment and
building efficiency moderates energy demand growth. The transportation
sector is expected to grow the most rapidly, due to increased
personal and freight travel, slow stock turnover, and consumer
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preferences for performance over efficiency.
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Projected natural gas demand grows at a rate
of 1.4 percent per year, with the most rapid growth for electricity
generation and industrial applications. Projected coal demand
grows by 1.7 percent annually (based on tonnage) with over 90
percent used for electricity generation.
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Figure 4.
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Projected U.S. domestic crude oil production
declines from 5.6 to 4.6 million barrels per day by 2025. By
2025, net petroleum imports, are expected to account for 70
percent of demand, up from 54 percent in 2002.
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- Total domestic natural gas production, with a contribution from
an Alaskan pipeline in 2018, is projected to grow from 19 Tcf
in 2002 to 24 Tcf by 2025. Despite the increase, a growing share
of U.S. demand is met by imports. LNG imports are projected to
increase from 0.2 trillion cubic feet in 2002 to 4.8 trillion
cubic feet in 2025.
- Domestic coal production increases at an average rate of 1.5
percent per year, from 1,105 million short tons in 2002 to 1,543
million short tons in 2025, mostly for electricity generation.
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Figure 5.
- Electricity generation from natural gas, coal, nuclear, and
renewable fuels is projected to increase through 2025. Coal remains
the primary fuel for generation with its share of generation increasing
from 50 percent in 2002 to 52 percent in 2025. The
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gas share of generation grows
from 18 percent in 2002 to 22
percent in 2025.
- Nuclear generation increases slowly over the forecast as the
capacity of some facilities is uprated and the Browns Ferry nuclear
plant begins operation in 2007.
- Renewable technologies are projected to grow slowly because
of relatively low cost fossil generation and competitive electricity
markets that favor less capital-intensive technologies in the
competition for new capacity. State and Federal renewable programs
are considered in the forecast where enacted.
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Figure 6.
- Carbon dioxide emissions from energy use grow at 1.5 percent
per year due to increases in energy demand met
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predominantly with fossil fuels due to slow
penetration by renewables and only
a slight rise in nuclear generation.
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In 2025, petroleum accounts for 43 percent of
emissions, mostly from transportation, coal for 37 percent,
and natural gas for 21 percent; electricity generation and transportation
are expected to account for 41 and 35 percent of carbon dioxide
emissions, respectively, due to continued reliance on fossil
fuels.
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National Energy Information Center (NEIC)
Energy Information Administration, EI-30
Forrestal Building, Room 1E-226
Washington, DC 2058
Telephone: (202) 586-8800 FAX: (202) 586-0727
E-Mail: infoctr@eia.doe.gov
For more information:
Visit
the AEO 2003 web site at:
www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html
and
the
EIA web site at: www.eia.doe.gov
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