Energy Information Administration EIA Brochures Channel.  If having trouble viewing this page, contact the National Energy Informaiton Center at (202) 586-8800. Return to Energy Information Administration Home Page
Home> EIA Brochures>Annual Energy Outlook 2004 Brochure
 

 

Brochure cover for the Annual Energy Outlook 2004

Annual Energy Outlook

With Projections to 2025

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure1.
Figure 1 shows four line graphs of fuel price projections, 2000-2025, for  (going from left to right and top to bottom) average electricity, crude oil, natural gas wellhead, and coal minemouth.

  • In the Annual Energy Outlook 2004 projected world oil prices increase from $23.68 per barrel (2002 dollars) in 2002 to $27.00 per barrel in 2025, as world oil demand increases. In nominal dollars, the average world oil price reaches about $52.00 per barrel in 2025.
  • Average natural gas prices are projected to increase from $2.95 per thousand cubic feet (2002 dollars) in 2002 to $4.90 per cubic feet in 2003, declining to $3.40 per thousand cubic feet in 2010 as the initial availability of new import sources (such as LNG) increase supply.  After 2010, wellhead prices increase gradually, reaching $4.40 per thousand cubic feet by 2025.
  • Projected average electricity prices (2002 dollars) decline from 7.2 to a low of 6.6 cents per kilowatthour between 2002 and 2007 as a result of cost reductions in an increasingly competitive market.  After 2007, real electricity prices are projected to increase, reaching 6.9 cents per kilowatthour in 2025 due mainly to increased generation costs.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



Figure 2.
Figure 2 is also a line graph showing energy use per capita and per dollar of gross domestic product , 1970-2025,  with history and projections

  • Through 2025, projected energy use per dollar of gross domes- tic product declines 1.5 percent per year and per capita energy consumption increases by 0.7 per year. Efficiency gains and structural shifts in the economy to less-energy-intensive in- dustries partially offset growth in the demand for energy services, which results from population growth and projected economic growth of 0.8 and 3.0 percent per year, respectively.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


  This is a highlights table for 2001 -2025, showing the percent change from 2002-2025. If you would like the detailed inofrmation from the table, please call the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 3.
Figure 3 is a line graph showing history and projections of energy consumption by fuel, 1970-2025,  for petroleum, natural gas, coal, nuclear, nonhydro renewables, and hydropower.

  • Projected primary energy demand grows at a rate of 1.5 percent per year through 2025. Improved equipment and building efficiency moderates energy demand growth. The transportation sector is expected to grow the most rapidly, due to increased personal and freight travel, slow stock turnover, and consumer

preferences for performance over efficiency.

  • Electricity demand is projected to grow at a rate of 1.8 percent per year. Rapid growth in computers, office equipment, and electrical appliances is partially offset by improved efficiency.
  • Projected natural gas demand grows at a rate of 1.4 percent per year, with the most rapid growth for electricity generation and industrial applications. Projected coal demand grows by 1.7 percent annually (based on tonnage) with over 90 percent used for electricity generation.

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 4.
Figure 4 is a line graph showing energy production by fuel, 1970-2025, with history and projections for coal, natural gas, petroleum, nuclear, nonhydro renewables, and hydropower.

  • Projected U.S. domestic crude oil production declines from 5.6 to 4.6 million barrels per day by 2025. By 2025, net petroleum imports, are expected to account for 70 percent of demand, up from 54 percent in 2002.
  • Total domestic natural gas production, with a contribution from an Alaskan pipeline in 2018, is projected to grow from 19 Tcf in 2002 to 24 Tcf by 2025. Despite the increase, a growing share of U.S. demand is met by imports. LNG imports are projected to increase from 0.2 trillion cubic feet in 2002 to 4.8 trillion cubic feet in 2025.
  • Domestic coal production increases at an average rate of 1.5 percent per year, from 1,105 million short tons in 2002 to 1,543 million short tons in 2025, mostly for electricity generation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

Figure 5.
Figure 5 shows electricity generation by fuel, 1970-2025,  with history and projections for coal, natural gas, nuclear, renewables, and petroleum.

  • Electricity generation from natural gas, coal, nuclear, and renewable fuels is projected to increase through 2025. Coal remains the primary fuel for generation with its share of generation increasing from 50 percent in 2002 to 52 percent in 2025. The

         natural gas share of generation          grows from 18 percent in 2002 to          22 percent in 2025.

  • Nuclear generation increases slowly over the forecast as the capacity of some facilities is uprated and the Browns Ferry nuclear plant begins operation in 2007.
  • Renewable technologies are projected to grow slowly because of relatively low cost fossil generation and competitive electricity markets that favor less capital-intensive technologies in the competition for new capacity. State and Federal renewable programs are considered in the forecast where enacted.


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



 

Figure 6.
Figure 6 is a bar chart showing U.S. carbon dioxide emissions by sector (transportation, industrial, commercial, and residential) and by fuel (coal, natural gas, and petroleum) for 1990-2025.

  • Carbon dioxide emissions from energy use grow at 1.5 percent per year due to increases in energy demand met

 

      predominantly with fossil fuels due to       slow penetration by renewables and       only a slight rise in nuclear generation.

  • In 2025, petroleum accounts for 43 percent of emissions, mostly from transportation, coal for 37 percent, and natural gas for 21 percent; electricity generation and transportation are expected to account for 41 and 35 percent of carbon dioxide emissions, respectively, due to continued reliance on fossil fuels.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

National Energy Information Center (NEIC)
Energy Information Administration, EI-30
Forrestal Building, Room 1E-226
Washington, DC 2058
Telephone: (202) 586-8800 FAX: (202) 586-0727
E-Mail: infoctr@eia.doe.gov
For more information:
Visit the AEO 2003 web site at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html
and the EIA web site at: www.eia.doe.gov

 

:

 

 

 

 

EIA Home 
Contact Us

Page last modified on