Energy Projections

The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) prepares four annual reports in the areas of energy projections and greenhouse gas emissions:

aeo4rf.jpg (16304 bytes)Annual Energy Outlook

The Annual Energy Outlook provides projections of U.S. energy consumption, production, imports and exports, distribution, prices, and carbon emissions for the midterm period, currently 2020, using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) for a reference case and sensitivity cases.  Alternative cases include changes in world oil prices, economic growth, end-use technology penetration, nuclear retirement, electricity demand, oil and gas technological progress, and coal productivity, and other cases deemed relevant to current energy issues.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html

International Energy Outlook 2000ieoorf.jpg (16207 bytes)

The International Energy Outlook provides projections of world energy consumption by region and primary energy source, electricity consumption, oil production, nuclear power capacity, coal trade, and carbon emissions for the midterm period, currently 2020.  Alternative economic growth cases provide a range for energy consumption, and the Outlook analyzes the issues that are likely to influence international energy demand and carbon emissions.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html


Greenhouse Gas Data

Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States

As required by the Energy Policy Act of 1992, this report presents the annual estimates of U.S. emissions for carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and other greenhouse gases, as well as other criteria pollutants that affect the climate.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/ggrpt/index.html

 

Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases

This annual report summarizes the actions undertaken by corporations, governments, individuals, and other entities that have voluntarily taken actions to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases as reported to the Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Program, established by the Energy Policy Act of 1992.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/1605/vrrpt/index.html

 

Additional information on our forecasting and greenhouse gas program is available on our Web site at http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/forecasting and http://www.eia.doe.gov/environment.html.

Questions regarding the program can be directed to the following:

Susan Holte, Director, Demand and Integration Division: 202/586-4838
James Kendell, Director, Oil and Gas Division: 202/586-9646
Scott Sitzer, Director, Coal and Electric Power Division: 202/586-2308

Mary J. Hutzler, Director
Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting: 202/586-2222


Recent Analytic Papers

OIAF prepares analytical papers and reports on topics of current interest in energy markets which either underlie the assumptions and methodology of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) or are applications of NEMS to current issues. In the past, some of these papers have been collectively published in Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting and are available at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysis.html.

Examples include:

Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation

This paper evaluates the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook by comparing the projections prepared from 1983 forward with actual historical values. This paper is updated annually by adding the most recent Outlook and year of data to the evaluation.

Employment Trends in Oil and Gas Extraction

This paper analyzes the trends in jobs for oil and gas extraction and the factors that affect employment, including the number of wells drilled, prices, costs, technology, and the shares of drilling for natural gas and for Alaskan and offshore operations; it concludes that oil and gas extraction jobs are becoming less important to the State and national economies.

Modeling Technology Learning in the
National Energy Modeling System

This paper summarizes the approaches used to represent technological progress and learning in the NEMS, illustrating the impact of learning on capital costs in recent policy analyses.

Trends in Power Plant Operating Costs

As competitive pressures grow in the electricity generation sector, power plant operators are under greater pressure to reduce their operating costs to increase profits and to protect current market share from new suppliers. This paper examines changes in fossil steam power plant operating costs over the period 1981 through 1997 and prospects for further cost reductions.


Analysis Reports

OIAF periodically prepares one-time analysis reports. A recent example is:

Electricity Prices in a Competitive Environment: Marginal Cost Pricing of Generation Services and Financial Status of Electric Utilities

In response to the initiatives to restructure the electric power industry, this report, published in 1997, analyzes the potential impacts of restructuring on electricity prices and the finances of the industry as electricity prices are set by competitive markets. This analysis was updated the following year in the analysis paper Competitive Electricity Prices: An Update.
Both the report and the analysis paper are available in PDF from http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysis.html.


Documentation

The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the models used for the International Energy Outlook are fully documented each year. Documentation reports are available at www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/docs.html along with the report The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview, which is produced biennially and provides a summary description of NEMS. Two supporting documents to the Annual Energy Outlook are also provided on the Web annually: the Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook  (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/index.html) and the Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/supplement/index.html), which provides regional and other more detailed projections.


Service Reports

Service Reports are prepared for Federal agencies, either the U.S. Congress or the Administration. The requesting organization writes to the Administrator of EIA or the Director of OIAF stating the purpose of the analysis and the assumptions to be used. The written request is usually followed by a meeting with the client as the work begins and a briefing on the results at the conclusion.  OIAF has performed a number of such special analyses.

kyoto.jpg (13739 bytes)Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity

Requested by the Committee on Science of the U.S. House of Representatives to analyze the Kyoto Protocol focusing on U.S. energy use and prices and the economy in the 2008 to 2012 time frame.
SR/OIAF/98-03 (October 1998)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/kyoto/kyotorpt.html


Analysis of the Impacts of an Early Start for Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol

Requested by the Committee on Science of the U.S. House of Representatives to evaluate the impacts of an earlier start date for the United States to begin to take action to reduce carbon emissions, relative to the date in the October 1998 analysis.  SR/OIAF/99-02 (July 1999)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/kyoto3/kyoto3rpt.html


Examples of Service Reports

Energy Consumption Projections for Selected Industries of the Future

Requested by the Office of Industrial Technologies, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, DOE, to provide projections of output and delivered energy consumption for selected industries included in the OIT Industries of the Future Program.
SR/OIAF/99-05 (November 1999)

Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in Energy Markets 1999: Primary Energy

Requested by the Office of Policy, DOE, to update an earlier report on Federal energy subsidies through which a government or public body provides a financial benefit to primary energy producers.
SR/OIAF/99-03 (September 1999)

The Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act: A Comparison of Model Results

Requested by the Secretary of Energy to evaluate the impacts of the Administration’s restructuring proposal using the National Energy Modeling System with the assumptions from the Policy Office Electricity Modeling System analysis. SR/OIAF/99-04 (September 1999)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/ceca/ceca.html

Analysis of the Climate Change Technology Initiative

Requested by the Committee on Science of the U.S. House of Representatives to evaluate the impact of the President’s Climate Change Technology Initiative, as defined for the 2000 budget.
SR/OIAF/99-01 (April 1999)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/climate99/climaterpt.html

This report was updated in April 2000 for fiscal year 2001. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/climate/index.html

The Impacts of Increased Diesel Penetration
in the Transportation Sector

Requested by the Office of Transportation Technologies, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, DOE, to analyze the impacts on petroleum prices of increased demand for diesel fuel as a result of higher penetration of diesel engines. SR/OIAF/98-02 (August 1998)

Analysis of S. 687, the Electric System Public Benefits Protection Act of 1997

Requested by Senator James Jeffords of Vermont to analyze the provisions of proposed legislation, creating a renewable portfolio standard and emissions limits on carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide.
SR/OIAF/98-01 (February 1998)

Analysis of Carbon Stabilization Cases

Requested by the Office of Policy and International Affairs, DOE, to analyze the impacts of carbon stabilization at 1990 levels on U.S. energy markets and the economy. SR/OIAF/97-01 (October 1997)

An Analysis of FERC’s Final Environmental Impact Statement for Electricity Open Access and Recovery of Stranded Costs

Requested by Senator James Jeffords of Vermont to analyze the impacts of open access regulatory changes on the electricity industry.   SR/OIAF/96-03 (September 1996)
ftp://ftp.eia.doe.gov/pub/pdf/electricity/oiaf9603.pdf

The Impacts on U.S. Energy Markets and the Economy of Reducing Oil Imports

Requested by the General Accounting Office to evaluate the impacts of reducing oil imports on U.S. energy markets and the economy.  SR/OIAF/96-04 (September 1996)

An Analysis of Carbon Mitigation Cases

Requested by the Office of Air and Radiation, Environmental Protection Agency, to analyze the potential of accelerated technology improvement and adoption to reduce carbon emissions.  SR/OIAF/96-01 (June 1996)


For More Information, Contact:

National Energy Information Center, EI-30
Energy Information Administration
Forrestal Building, Room 1E-238
U.S. Department of Energy
Washington, DC 20585
Telephone: 202/586-8800
TTY: 202/586-1181
E-Mail: infoctr@eia.doe.gov

Web site: www.eia.doe.gov

 


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