Energy Projections The Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting (OIAF) prepares four annual reports in the areas of energy projections and greenhouse gas emissions: Annual Energy Outlook The Annual
Energy Outlook provides projections of U.S. energy consumption,
production, imports and exports, distribution, prices, and carbon
emissions for the midterm period, currently 2020, using the National
Energy Modeling System (NEMS) for a reference case and sensitivity cases.
Alternative cases include changes in world oil prices, economic
growth, end-use technology penetration, nuclear retirement, electricity
demand, oil and gas technological progress, and coal productivity, and
other cases deemed relevant to current energy issues. International Energy Outlook The
International Energy Outlook provides projections of world energy
consumption by region and primary energy source, electricity consumption,
oil production, nuclear power capacity, coal trade, and carbon emissions
for the midterm period, currently 2020. Alternative economic growth
cases provide a range for energy consumption, and the Outlook
analyzes the issues that are likely to influence international energy
demand and carbon emissions. Greenhouse Gas Data Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States As required by the
Energy Policy Act of 1992, this report presents the annual estimates of
U.S. emissions for carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and other
greenhouse gases, as well as other criteria pollutants that affect the
climate.
Voluntary Reporting of Greenhouse Gases This annual report
summarizes the actions undertaken by corporations, governments,
individuals, and other entities that have voluntarily taken actions to
reduce emissions of greenhouse gases as reported to the Voluntary
Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Program, established by the Energy Policy
Act of 1992.
Recent Analytic Papers OIAF prepares analytical papers and reports on topics of current interest in energy markets which either underlie the assumptions and methodology of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) or are applications of NEMS to current issues. In the past, some of these papers have been collectively published in Issues in Midterm Analysis and Forecasting and are available at: www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/analysis.html. Examples include: Annual Energy Outlook Forecast Evaluation This paper
evaluates the projections in the Annual Energy Outlook by comparing
the projections prepared from 1983 forward with actual historical values.
This paper is updated annually by adding the most recent Outlook
and year of data to the evaluation. Employment Trends in Oil and Gas Extraction This paper analyzes
the trends in jobs for oil and gas extraction and the factors that affect
employment, including the number of wells drilled, prices, costs,
technology, and the shares of drilling for natural gas and for Alaskan and
offshore operations; it concludes that oil and gas extraction jobs are
becoming less important to the State and national economies.
Modeling
Technology Learning in the This paper
summarizes the approaches used to represent technological progress and
learning in the NEMS, illustrating the impact of learning on capital costs
in recent policy analyses. Trends in Power Plant Operating Costs As competitive pressures grow in the electricity generation sector, power plant operators are under greater pressure to reduce their operating costs to increase profits and to protect current market share from new suppliers. This paper examines changes in fossil steam power plant operating costs over the period 1981 through 1997 and prospects for further cost reductions. Analysis Reports OIAF periodically prepares one-time analysis reports. A recent example is: Electricity Prices in a Competitive Environment: Marginal Cost Pricing of Generation Services and Financial Status of Electric Utilities In response to the
initiatives to restructure the electric power industry, this report,
published in 1997, analyzes the potential impacts of restructuring on
electricity prices and the finances of the industry as electricity prices
are set by competitive markets. This analysis was updated the following
year in the analysis paper Competitive Electricity Prices: An
Update. Documentation The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the models used for the International Energy Outlook are fully documented each year. Documentation reports are available at www.eia.doe.gov/bookshelf/docs.html along with the report The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview, which is produced biennially and provides a summary description of NEMS. Two supporting documents to the Annual Energy Outlook are also provided on the Web annually: the Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/assumption/index.html) and the Supplement to the Annual Energy Outlook (http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/supplement/index.html), which provides regional and other more detailed projections. Service Reports Service Reports are
prepared for Federal agencies, either the U.S. Congress or the
Administration. The requesting organization writes to the Administrator of
EIA or the Director of OIAF stating the purpose of the analysis and the
assumptions to be used. The written request is usually followed by a
meeting with the client as the work begins and a briefing on the results
at the conclusion. OIAF has performed a number of such special
analyses. Impacts of the Kyoto Protocol on U.S. Energy Markets and Economic Activity Requested by the
Committee on Science of the U.S. House of Representatives to analyze the
Kyoto Protocol focusing on U.S. energy use and prices and the economy in
the 2008 to 2012 time frame.
Requested by the
Committee on Science of the U.S. House of Representatives to evaluate the
impacts of an earlier start date for the United States to begin to take
action to reduce carbon emissions, relative to the date in the October
1998 analysis. SR/OIAF/99-02 (July 1999) Examples of Service Reports Energy Consumption Projections for Selected Industries of the Future Requested by the
Office of Industrial Technologies, Office of Energy Efficiency and
Renewable Energy, DOE, to provide projections of output and delivered
energy consumption for selected industries included in the OIT Industries
of the Future Program. Federal Financial Interventions and Subsidies in Energy Markets 1999: Primary Energy Requested by the
Office of Policy, DOE, to update an earlier report on Federal energy
subsidies through which a government or public body provides a financial
benefit to primary energy producers. The Comprehensive Electricity Competition Act: A Comparison of Model Results Requested by the
Secretary of Energy to evaluate the impacts of the Administration’s
restructuring proposal using the National Energy Modeling System with the
assumptions from the Policy Office Electricity Modeling System analysis.
SR/OIAF/99-04 (September
1999) Analysis of the Climate Change Technology Initiative Requested by the
Committee on Science of the U.S. House of Representatives to evaluate the
impact of the President’s Climate Change Technology Initiative, as defined
for the 2000 budget. This report was updated in April 2000 for fiscal year 2001. http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/climate/index.html The Impacts of
Increased Diesel Penetration Requested by the Office of Transportation Technologies, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, DOE, to analyze the impacts on petroleum prices of increased demand for diesel fuel as a result of higher penetration of diesel engines. SR/OIAF/98-02 (August 1998) Analysis of S. 687, the Electric System Public Benefits Protection Act of 1997 Requested by
Senator James Jeffords of Vermont to analyze the provisions of proposed
legislation, creating a renewable portfolio standard and emissions limits
on carbon dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen oxide. Analysis of Carbon Stabilization Cases Requested by the Office of Policy and International Affairs, DOE, to analyze the impacts of carbon stabilization at 1990 levels on U.S. energy markets and the economy. SR/OIAF/97-01 (October 1997) An Analysis of FERC’s Final Environmental Impact Statement for Electricity Open Access and Recovery of Stranded Costs Requested by
Senator James Jeffords of Vermont to analyze the impacts of open access
regulatory changes on the electricity industry. SR/OIAF/96-03 (September
1996) The Impacts on U.S. Energy Markets and the Economy of Reducing Oil Imports Requested by the General Accounting Office to evaluate the impacts of reducing oil imports on U.S. energy markets and the economy. SR/OIAF/96-04 (September 1996) An Analysis of Carbon Mitigation Cases Requested by the Office of Air and Radiation, Environmental Protection Agency, to analyze the potential of accelerated technology improvement and adoption to reduce carbon emissions. SR/OIAF/96-01 (June 1996)
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