NSF Award Abstract - #0120009

AWSFL008-DS3

BE/CNH: Alternatives to Crisis: Constructing Models of Resilience in the Red
River Valley of the North

Abstract

Around the world, regional ecosystems dominated by resource-based extractive economies (agriculture, forestry and fisheries) are in crisis, facing painful transitions imposed by the convergence of processes operating at local and global scales. The Red River of the North (that forms the border of Minnesota and North Dakota flowing north into Manitoba and Hudson Bay), an area of intensive and industrialized agriculture that has long been considered one of the most fertile farming regions in the world, is one such system in a painful transition. Crop disease, abnormally wet climate patterns, and low commodity prices have combined with long-term economic, social, and ecological declines to generate an increasingly severe regional crisis.

The objective of this project is to distill from the multiplicity of causal factors a simple systems model that can be used to explore the natural, economic and social dynamics observed in this most recent crisis in the Red River Valley (RRV), and to use the model to explore alternative policies with stakeholders and decision makers in the RRV. Through the use of an interdisciplinary dynamic simulation process (Adaptive Environmental Assessment) involving citizens, scientists and resource managers, the project seeks to generate insight into the small and tractable set of key processes that have precipitated the simultaneous collapse of regional systems and to explore what other outcomes might have been possible under different decision-making scenarios. The model will have both practical and theoretical significance. By exploring how a stable but brittle regional system collapsed through a series of subtle multiple and reinforcing discontinuities, and by simulating the response of that system under different decision-making and reorganization scenarios, the model will advance understanding of resilience dynamics in coupled social-ecological systems. It also will provide a solid, practical foundation for expanding dialogue among diverse stakeholders, develop additional modeling and outreach efforts, and build capacity for regional problem-solving. Insights and understanding derived from this model may prove valuable to agro-ecosystems in other regions facing similar challenges that have not yet experienced large-scale collapse. What are the implications for other commodity based agricultural economies around the world (e.g., the corn belt of the Upper Midwest)? Can agro-ecosystems and other economic activities in the RRV be reorganized to arrive at longer-term, more resilient solutions that will allow the region to escape from the vicious cycle of spiraling ecological and economic crisis? This project is an award emanating from the FY2001 special competition in Biocomplexity in the Environment focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.