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Climate Variability and Predictability

CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) is an interdisciplinary research effort within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) focussing on the variability and predictability of the slowly varying components of the climate system. CLIVAR investigates the physical and dynamical processes in the climate system which occur on seasonal, interannual, decadal and centennial time-scales.

The Divisions of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences support research that addresses short and longer-term climate variability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system.

Description

CLIVAR (A study of CLImate VARiability and predictability) strives for smooth continuity with terminating WCRP programs: TOGA, which phased out in 1995, and WOCE, whose field work ends with a 1996-97 Atlantic Circulation and Climate Experiment (ACCE). CLIVAR is a major program of the WCRP that exploits the advances made by TOGA and WOCE. The concept of CLIVAR arose from the recognition that observed climate variations result from natural variability superimposed on long-term trends that may be induced by anthropogenic modifications of the global environment and other external forcing factors.

CLIVAR's overall objectives are:

gold buttonto describe and understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal and centennial time scales, through the collection and analysis of observations and the development and application of models of the climate system, in cooperation with other relevant climate research and observing programs;

gold buttonto extend the record of climate variability over the time scales of interest through the assembly of quality-controlled paleoclimatic and instrumental data sets;

gold buttonto extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction through the development of global coupled predictive models;

gold buttonto understand and predict the response of the climate system to the growth of the radiative active gases and aerosols, and to compare these predictions to the observed climate record in order to detect anthropogenic modification of the natural climate signal.

In order to meet these objectives, CLIVAR is organized around three science thrusts to (1) study climate variability and predictability from seasons to years, (2) study decadal to centennial climate variability, and (3) model and detect anthropogenic climate change.

Proposal Submission Information:

Proposal addressing these general CLIVAR objectives must meet target dates of 15 February and 15 August for the Division of Ocean Sciences (OCE) but may be submitted at any time to the Division of Atmospheric Sciences (ATM). When appropriate, CLIVAR proposals will be jointly reviewed and considered for funding by OCE and ATM. In these cases, Investigators must meet the OCE target dates listed above.

Areas of Emphasis in FY2000

The U.S. CLIVAR Science Steering Committee, in consultation with the U.S. CLIVAR Inter-Agency Group has identified several areas of emphasis for the U.S contribution to the International CLIVAR program in FY2000. These topics represent a view of research areas that are at once critical to our understanding and prediction of the climate system and scientifically tractable in the near term. Those of interest to NSF's Divisions of Atmospheric (ATM) and Ocean (OCE) Sciences are listed below:

Empirical studies, diagnostics and modeling of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system, with emphasis on decadal climate variability (ATM and OCE);

Diagnosis and modeling of the impact of sea ice and mid-latitude SST anomalies on the circulation of the atmosphere (ATM);

Enhanced observations, modeling and analysis of coupled ocean-atmosphere-land phenomena in the Atlantic and Pan American sectors, with emphasis on seasonal-to-interannual variability (ATM and OCE);

Design studies for ocean observations in support of CLIVAR objectives (OCE);

Process experiment design studies: Pacific equatorial upwelling (OCE);

Detailed descriptions of these areas of emphasis and agency interests can be found on the U.S. CLIVAR homepage..

Proposal Submission Information:

Proposals addressing these areas of emphasis that are of interest to NSF (ATM and/or OCE) should be submitted to the February 15 target date. Proposals should be identified by entering "NSF99-2, CLIVAR" in the Program Announcement block and "Directorate for Geosciences" in the NSF organization unit block of the cover sheet. Before submitting a proposal to NSF, Principal Investigators are encouraged to contact one of the CLIVAR program managers listed on this page. Proposals involving NOAA, NASA or DOE scientists will be considered cooperatively with these agencies.

Related Links

gold buttonU.S. CLIVAR homepage
gold buttonInternational CLIVAR homepage
gold buttonCLIVAR Implementation Plan
gold buttonRelated Programmes and Projects

 

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Contacts:
Dr. Eric Itsweire
Division of Ocean Sciences (OCE)
Phone: (703) 292-8582
Fax: (703) 292-9085
E-mail: eitsweir@nsf.gov

Dr. Jay S. Fein
Division of Atmospheric Sciences (ATM)
Phone: (703) 292-8527
Fax: (703) 292-9022
E-mail: jfein@nsf.gov

Dr. Stephen Meacham
Division of Atmospheric Sciences (ATM)
Phone: (703) 292-8527
Fax: (703) 292-9022
E-mail: smeacham@nsf.gov


Last Update: 5-30-02
E-mail: geowebmaster@nsf.gov