Description

Questions about the future state of the environment - global and regional distributions of temperature and precipitation, sea level, water resources, and biological productivity - can be answered only through theoretical model simulations and predictions because the processes and feedbacks are so complex. However, various components of climate models- for example: cloud-radiative processes and feedbacks, ocean circulations and surface fluxes, and biosphere interactions, are inadequately represented because we lack sufficient knowledge of the processes involved.

Research leading to improved understanding of these components is required in order to achieve the goal of CMAP, which is significant improvements in climate-system modeling and prediction. Moreover, the representativeness of physical, chemical and biological processes in numerical climate models and the interpretation of model estimates of future climate states, requires mathematical and statistical studies. Examples of the research that will be supported include: studies using conceptual models, both stand-alone, e.g., atmospheric energy balance models, and coupled, e.g., one-dimensional radiative convection models coupled with variable depth ocean mixed layer models; development and experimentation with three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), both stand-alone and coupled; modeling studies of past climates; and studies of chaotic behavior and predictability of the coupled climate system.

Priority will be given to research that addresses issues related to coupling the atmosphere to its lower boundaries; the ocean, land surface and cryosphere.

A fully-coupled, community climate system model (CSM) is available at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) for further development and applications by researchers, NCAR universities, and Federal and not-for-profit laboratories. More information about the CSM is available through the NCAR homepage, http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/csm.