Grain: World Markets and Trade, August 2004

Grain: World Markets and Trade
Foreign Agricultural Service Circular Series
FG 11-04
November 2004

Thailand's Rice Exports Booming

This year, the world’s leading rice exporter is estimated to achieve an unprecedented level of exports, squashing its previous record by over 20 percent. This is largely a function of an unusual confluence of market events. Record production, the release of large government stocks to exporters, and limits on competitor supplies have fueled the record pace at the expense of other suppliers including the United States.

For example, China has largely withdrawn from the market due to limited exportable supplies, which in turn, has made China itself, as well as many West African markets, available to Thailand. Indian exports have shrunk on relatively smaller supplies and a lack of government export subsidies. Vietnam, too, has faced some export hurdles this year as the government carefully managed, and at times limited, exports given domestic supply concerns. As a result, Thailand has rather easily stolen market share from those suppliers, particularly in the Middle East and Africa.

However, since these events are not likely to be repeated in 2005, Thai exports are forecast to fall but would still be the second largest on record. Production is expected to shrink due to drought concerns and stocks are forecast to contract. China is expected to remain on the sidelines as a major exporter, and India’s current policy is to ban subsidized exports. Consequently, Thailand will likely maintain many of the markets gained the previous year.

International Market Analysis: Latin Markets Gain in Importance for U.S. Wheat Exports [Text] [PDF]

Wheat Commentary	[Text]	[Adobe Acrobat Format]
Wheat Data Tables	[Excel Spreadsheet Format]	[Adobe Acrobat Format]

Rice Commentary	[Text]	[Adobe Acrobat Format]
Rice Data Tables	[Excel Spreadsheet Format]	[Adobe Acrobat Format]

Coarse Grains Commentary	[Text]	[Adobe Acrobat Format]
Coarse Grains Data Tables	Excel Spreadsheet Format]	[Adobe Acrobat Format]