Romania and Bulgaria:  Crop Travel Confirms 
Bumper Winter and Spring Crops

Summary
Romania and Bulgaria, along with most of southeast and central Europe, have experienced an excellent 2004/05 season for both the winter and summer crops. Crop travel was conducted in Romania and Bulgaria by members of USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), which confirmed the favorable status of both 2004/05 winter and summer crops.  In general, the two Balkan nations' agricultural production had benefited greatly from favorable weather almost all season long. Actually, favorable weather was widespread throughout Europe this year, creating bumper crops and record yields in most all countries. During USDA's late August trip, producers reported that a large winter wheat crop had already been cut from the fields, while observations showed robust summer crops in the fields. 

Autumn sown (fall 2003) wheat and barley responded favorably to a moderate winter with mild temperatures and plenty protective snow cover. Precipitation was also abundant in most areas throughout the growing season. Compared to the 2003/04 crop which endured a harsh winter and a spring drought, this season's 2004/05 wheat and barley production will be substantially higher. Excessive rain in June, however, delayed harvest and lowered quality.

While spring-planted crops of corn and sunflower benefited from the lack of extreme summer heat this season, the primary contributor to their robust yields was the above-average precipitation levels that were maintained all season. The only exception to the frequent rainfall pattern was in eastern Bulgaria and eastern Romania, where dryness dominated in early spring. This area, however, received substantial rainfall by late spring, easing drought concerns. Typically, the Balkans dry out during late summer, greatly limiting the region's summer crop potential. Summer crop yields often follow a cycle of boom and bust years, primarily dependent upon the region's variable summer rainfall.  This year's rainfall was high enough by late August the ground moisture could support summer crop development until the harvest. 

                                                       USDA Statistics

Romanian And Bulgarian Production Data

Romania
Winter Crops
USDA's October estimate for 2004/05 Romanian wheat is 6.5 million tons from 1.8 million hectares.  This year's increase in production is both a 300,000 hectare increase in area and a 171 percent increase in yield from last year's record low of 1.33 tons/ha. This year's yield is a record high 3.61 tons/ha. Last year's cold winter wreaked havoc on the autumn-sown crop, reducing both area and yield. The winterkill damage was compounded by a following spring drought. Probably a more representative analogy is this year's estimated 6.5 million ton crop at 45 percent above the five-year average. In addition, barley, almost exclusively an autumn-sown crop, is estimated at 1.4 million tons, up 159 percent from last year's 540,000 tons and 82 percent over the five-year average, with its highest yield in over ten years.  

Summer Crops

USDA's October estimate for 2004/05 corn production is 12.0 million tons.  This year's bumper crop is 85 percent higher than last year's drought-reduced harvest. The 2004/05 total was cut from 15 percent more area than last year's crop, and has a 4.0 tons/ha yield, which  is 56 percent above the five-year average and 60 percent above last year. This year was the second consecutive year with high sunflower production.  The 2004/05 crop is estimated at 1.5 million tons of seed, compared to 1.4 million tons last year. Area is estimated down five percent from last year, when more summer crops were sown in fields that had lost wheat to winterkill. Good rainfall this summer boosted yields 12 percent higher than last year and 31 percent over the five-year average to its highest level since the 1980's. 

Bulgaria

Winter crops

Bulgaria also experienced the same harsh winter that Romania dealt with during the 2003/04 crop season, and the 2004/05 Bulgarian winter crops rebounded similarly, with enormous gains compared to last year.  Wheat production is estimated at 3.3 million tons, up 94 percent from last year (17 percent above the five-year average), while barley is up 138 percent from last year and 40 percent above the average. Harvested area is up over last year because of the lack of winterkill this season.  Harvested wheat area is estimated at 930,000 hectares, up 24 percent from last year, but 8 percent below average. Barley area is estimated up 76 percent to 300,000 hectares compared to last year's 170,000 and the five-year average of 250,000 hectares. Yields are the highest or second highest in ten years.

Summer Crops

High yields increased corn and sunflowerseed production levels above the five-year average by 35 and 30 percent, respectively. An estimated 1.4 million tons of corn and 700,000 tons of sunflowerseed is expected to have been produced in Bulgaria this year. Both summer crops also experienced a year-to-year decrease in harvested area, a result of the previous year's crop being unusually large (because of increased available land that was created by winterkill). Dryness during early spring reduced yield potential somewhat, but summer rains boosted the crop yield to an estimated at 3.73 tons/ha, compared to an average of 2.90 tons/ha and the sunflower crop increased to an estimated at 1.35 tons/ha versus the 1.11 tons/ha average. 

Romanian Weather-Related Data: Each region below has a page with four graphs.

Some keys to watch in the graphs:
1) Cumulative Precipitation- Usually in the Balkans, above-average precipitation is ideal for summer crops while average precipitation is ideal for the winter crops.
2) Percent Soil Moisture- During the relatively dry Balkan summer, the general rule is that the higher the soil moisture levels are, the higher yields will be.
3) Average Temperature- It is critical that temperatures don't rise too high during the summer pollination period.
4) SPOT-VEG is a satellite derived vegetation index that depicts relative vegetation health by measuring plant biomass. The higher the vegetation index, the more likely yields will be higher. 

                                                                   Crop Travel 

                                                 Romania Travel Notes

Current Year Conditions
Crop results for the 2004/05 year are best summarized by the comments of a high-level Ministry of Agriculture official, who stated that this year's harvest is probably the best in 15 years. She said that wheat and barley were estimated to be three times higher than last year. A season of exceptionally beneficial weather resulted in the large increase in yield. In particular, crops in western counties were reported to be in the best condition.  Also, areas along the southern Danube Valley,  where the country’s best soils and biggest agricultural areas are located, experienced very good yields. The government's agricultural policies this year were largely geared to both big and small farmers, and are thought to have aided yields. Some of the program's incentives included lower seed prices, subsidies for equipment and irrigation, free-of-charge phytosanitary treatment, and credit towards inputs to encourage usage. These incentives led to an increased level of inputs applied to the fields, are believed to have played a large role in the higher yields.  In addition, inputs were likely more successful this year because of the season’s increased rainfall. The extra soil moisture likely acted as a catalyst in boosting their effectiveness.

Even though a bumper wheat crop had been collected and a bumper corn harvest is being recorded, there is no expected lack of storage space in Romania. While other central European countries grapple with this concern, Romanian officials all stated that there is enough storage to hold both bumper crops.  Because of the enormous volumes of warehousing facilities required for the large crops produced fifteen years ago, under the previous regime, there exists excess capacity. Many silos and warehouses from this era however are old, and many of them are the much less efficient horizontal facilities. The extremely small harvest last year forced companies to buy stock from state reserves, so this year these producers will re-supply the reserve, meaning that very little surplus grain will be purchased for the reserve.  The Ministry is expecting large exports, much of it to North Africa and the Middle East.

This season’s rain events were distributed across the full length of the season, including the usually dry summer months. Summers in Romania often lack adequate rainfall for spring-planted crops. Irrigation of grains and oilseeds is almost non-existent in the Balkans, so this year’s unusually frequent rains greatly benefited yields. The winter wheat (nearly all is autumn-sown) harvest was practically complete by mid-August. Area available from winterkill or just vacant land in spring is typically planted with corn. The corn harvest peaks during the month of September, but can last much longer if the weather remains wet.  Corn and sunflower needs a period of drying-out in the field to avoid the huge expense of industrial driers. Climatically, the typical rainy period doesn't occur until October and November, which is well-suited for winter wheat planting, but useless or detrimental for late harvesting.  Because of the high cost in drying corn, varieties that dry-out faster can be more important than size of ears. 

Already looking towards next year's crop, one farmer mentioned that he is anticipating a good season for 2005/06. He mentioned that the high, late-summer soil moisture is a good sign for fall planting that occurs in October. In addition,  farmers will have more money for investments because of the good crop this year that will allow them to spend more on inputs and seeds. Finally, he said that this year is an election year, which of course, is always good for farmers.

Romanian Travel Pictures

Crops

Soybeans

Sunflower

Corn

Infrastructure/Facility

                                                                  Bulgaria Travel Notes
Current Year Conditions
The 2004 summer weather was very favorable in Bulgaria for agriculture, but until May, almost no precipitation fell in the Dobrich region. Located along its northern Black Sea coast, this is Bulgaria's grain basket. Heavy rain did arrive in May and June, in time for the critical flowering period, lessening concerns. The early dryness was the only blemish on an otherwise spectacular season.  Winterkill, unlike the previous year, was practically non-existent this season.  Above-average summer precipitation, coupled with average temperatures minimized the effects of the spring drought.  While dryness dominated northeast Bulgaria during winter and early spring, the northwest received increased rainfall. Usually the drier area of the country, this year it responded with some of  Bulgaria's best yields. By August, a summer of plentiful rainfall had covered all of Bulgaria, leaving officials and producers in agreement that above-average national yields were either being collected or to be expected. The re-occurring question about the 2004/05 production level by summer's end was just how high above average yields would go.

In much of Bulgaria, the best sunflower plants were sown in late April, just before the rain arrived at the beginning of May. Surprisingly, variances in soil moisture within individual fields, greatly affected plant development.  In addition, adjacent fields showed tremendous variances.  The plants sown just before the rains arrived were doing much better than the plants that had developed longer under the dry spell. The earliest planted fields were easily spotted because their plants were more advanced and their heads were very small.  As a whole however, the country's sunflower crop did very well. Amazingly, thanks to the favorable mid-summer weather, practically complete pollination occurred in all the sunflower and corn plants that were sampled in both Bulgaria and Romania. Walking through sunflower fields was a process of pushing very heavy, large heads aside. Because of the high amount of rainfall and cooler temperatures, harvest began later than normal; it began in full during October, not the usual mid-September time frame. 

According to private industry sources, roughly 60-70 percent of sunflower seed in Bulgaria is imported hybrid. Many farmers use Russian sunflower hybrids. Prices for Bulgarian varieties of hybrid sunseed are typically half the cost of imported seeds. Local corn varieties are also about half the cost of imported varieties. Corn is planted in late March or early April and the harvest is typically conducted during September. Hybrid corn usage is almost 100 percent in Bulgaria, with 40 percent Bulgarian hybrid and 60 percent imported hybrid corn. Among Bulgaria's neighbors, Serbia uses hybrid corn for its entire crop, while only 30-40 percent of Romanian corn is from hybrid seeds. In the future as the Balkans move toward EU integration, corn production is likely to rise on farms with storage capacity.  A trend of increased use of inputs, hybrids, certified sees, and capital investment are all contributing to increasing production levels. Sales of inputs however have declined this year because the poor harvest last season brought little income for producers; A vicious cycle develops after a bad year because farmers don't have up-front money to invest in expensive applications for the next year's crop.

Bulgarian Weather-Related Data: Each region below has four graphs. 

Some keys to watch in the graphs:
1) Cumulative Precipitation- Usually in the Balkans, above-average precipitation is ideal for summer crops while average precipitation is ideal for the winter crops.
2) Percent Soil Moisture- During the relatively dry Balkan summer, the general rule is that the higher the soil moisture levels are, the higher yields will be.
3) Average Temperature- It is critical that temperatures don't rise too high during the summer pollination period.
4) SPOT-VEG is a satellite-derived, vegetation index that depicts relative vegetation health by measuring plant biomass. The higher the vegetation index, the more likely yields will be higher. 

                                            Bulgarian Travel Pictures

Crops:  

Miscellaneous:

Operation pictures

Deep plowing performed during late summer when temperatures are still high enough to decompose the green material that is turned under, improving soil fertility.   
Picture 1    Picture 2

Current Practices
The transition to a market economy has not been without its challenges. In the past, the state was typically blamed for mistakes, not the producers. After reforms, efficient managers had to experiment with different incentives to entice changes in the older farmers who had been indoctrinated under the scheme for 15-20 years. New incentive schemes were developed and are still being refined to entice productivity. Recently, companies have been incorporating “profit centers” within their collection of farms to spur increased production.  In these “profit centers” employees and their managers earn bonuses and prizes by exceeding a given level (which is variable from farm to farm because of the differences in soils, etc.) or by scoring in a high percentile against other “profit centers.” Some interesting forms of payment also occurs, including paying in kind with wheat, which helps prevent employee theft.  Some of the students who work on farms and can get paid tuition. 

Specifically, the Romanian market has been one of the most receptive markets for biotech or genetically modified (GM) crops. Romania is the only European country that grows GM soy beans, with more than 50 percent of the total crop being GM. Romanian soybean area has fluctuated around a total of 100,000 hectares planted annually. Contrary to general dislike for GM crops in Europe, Romanian customers accept them. According to one producer, Romania has 40,000 hectares of commercial, GM corn which is grown for Spain. 

Soybeans are usually planted in April but in areas with irrigation, they can be double-cropped after barley. Double-cropped soybean yields are roughly half that of the main-season variety.  One very large farm had 60 percent of its soybeans comprised of biotech varieties.  As a result of this years crop's success, the farmer said that next year (2005/06), his soybean fields will be 100 percent GM. He was particularly happy with its success in the weedy lowlands. His GM soybeans did especially well in these moist fields where weeds thrive since the intrusive weeds can be thoroughly sprayed without damaging the soybean crop.

Because Romania and Bulgaria are not a members of the EU (expected to enter in 2007), their environmental regulations are less stringent.  For example, farmers typically burn wheat stubble to forgo the cost of purchasing an expensive combine attachment which cuts stalks and turns them under, increasing soil fertility. Burning wheat stubble creates ash, which fixes nitrate into the soil. Burning also kills weeds that makes cover crops unnecessary and saves costly fuel expenses. Meanwhile the Romanian government is promoting the more environmentally sound practice of no-tillage, but it is rarely being used. There is also a very noticeable lack of trees in all large agricultural areas. Some agriculture officials are pushing for reforestation, where additional trees would help to buffer the drying effects of strong winds.  

In 1990 there were 3.5 million irrigated hectares in Romania, but with the effects of political and economic change, this fell to almost nothing in the early nineties, before rising back to the current level of one million hectares. It has continued to slowly increase and there is potential for it to rise to 2.0 million hectares in the future. One of the major obstacles in improving irrigation systems however, is that the control of infrastructure has been dispersed among different entities. Typically the main pumps and electric equipment are operated by the state government, but the responsibility varies for smaller pumping stations and the pipelines that bring water to the field varies. 

Crop Notes
Sunflower
The sunflower plant's high insect vulnerability limits its time in the crop rotation. The industry recommends that sunflowers should not be planted more than once every five to seven years.  One manager from a very large farm in Romania plans a full eight years in advance for crop rotations.  Nevertheless, because of its high profitability, this recommendation often goes un-heeded and yields dip dramatically.  Amazingly some farmers still plant sunflower every other year, at greatly diminished yields. If farmers respected the proper five-year crop rotation, he said, no more than 600,000 hectares of sunflower would be planted in Romania per year. One farmer stated that he will try planting a GM variety of sunflower next year.

Typically, 15 percent more oil is extracted from imported hybrids than from local sunflower varieties.  One problem with planting non–hybrid sunflowerseed is that it creates a mixture of plants with different heights, making harvest more difficult.  Looking to the future of the sunflower hybrid market is to look east. Russia and Ukraine are big potential markets, but their economies must stabilize before investment will likely be secured.  Sunflowerseed and corn production are both expected to increase in the future.  In addition, with increases in livestock, exports will cause corn demand and production to go up as well.  Sunflower with its higher drought tolerance, is better suited than corn to the dry periods that can occur in the Balkan summers. Because of concern about climate change and possible shorter and drier springs, there is increased interest in drought tolerant varieties of crops  One of the most important traits in a sunflower variety is that it must turn its head down when full of seeds. This is particularly beneficial for protection from birds. This orientation won't allow them to land on the head and steadily pick out seeds. It also prevents water damage that occurs when rain collects in the upturned head.  Another problem that can occur to the sunflower head is from hail damage. Hail causes bruises to the plant as it strikes the sunflower head, making it susceptible to diseases and bugs during the rest of the season.

For more information, contact Bryan Purcell
  with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at (202) 690-0138

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