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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
November 10, 2004
The USDA estimates Ukraine corn production for 2004/05 at 6.6 million tons, unchanged from last month and down slightly from 6.85 million last year. Harvested area is estimated at 1.8 million hectares, down 10 percent from last year, and yield is forecast to increase by 7 percent to 3.7 tons per hectare. A cool, wet growing season resulted in high potential yield but also delayed crop development and maturation. (See October 22 update.) Generally favorable harvest weather, including above-normal temperatures in southern and central Ukraine, has enabled farmers to gather corn at a robust pace. Local reports, however, indicate that corn is being harvested at a higher-than-usual moisture content because of late maturation and will require considerable post-harvest drying.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, output reached 6.14 million tons as of November 5 (against 6.32 million by the same date last year) with harvest complete on 1.53 (1.78) million hectares, or nearly 60 percent of the planted area of 2.6 million hectares. Yield is reported at 4.03 (3.55) tons per hectare. Weekly output accelerated in mid-October as sunflowerseed harvest neared completion and additional machinery was made available for corn harvest. In the southern fringe of the corn production region, harvest was approaching completion by November 5, while in central Ukraine harvest was only half finished.
Data from the State Statistical Committee of Ukraine (SSC) indicate harvested area and output 17 and 10 percent lower, respectively, than Ministry data from approximately the same date, but yield almost 10 percent higher. According to the SSC, farmers had harvested 5.02 million tons of corn from 1.17 million hectares as of November 1, with yield of 4.30 tons per hectare. Meanwhile, Ministry data from November 2 cited production of 5.56 million tons from 1.41 million hectares, with yield of 3.94 tons per hectare. (Harvest-progress data for wheat and sunflowerseed followed the same pattern, with SSC data typically reporting lower area and production and higher yield than Ministry data.)
Ukraine harvests an average of 92 percent of the corn that is planted for grain. (Corn for grain typically comprises roughly two-thirds of total corn area. The remainder is planted for use as silage corn.) In a year with favorable growing conditions and good harvest weather, as much as 95 percent of the planted area can be harvested. In a year of severe drought, when grain-yield prospects are dim, some of the corn intended for harvest as grain will instead be cut for silage in August. Delayed crop development and late harvest does not necessarily preclude a successful harvest. In 1997, the growing season for corn was cool and wet, similar to the current year, and the harvest campaign was delayed by nearly a month. By early November less than half the corn had been cut, but harvest continued into December. Farmers eventually harvested over 80 percent of the planted area and yield reached a record 3.96 tons per hectare.
Official USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available at PSD Online. Initial estimates for 2005/06 will be released on May 12, 2005.
