Title: NSF/Tokyo Report: Seismo-Electromagnetic Research in The Earthquake Remote Sensing Frontier Research Project, EORC/NASDA: Date: 9/19/97 The National Science Foundation's offices in Tokyo and in Paris periodically report on developments abroad that are related to the Foundation's mission. These documents present facts for the use of NSF program managers and policy makers; they are not statements of NSF policy. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Special Scientific Report #97-25 (September 2, 1997) ---------------------------------------------------------------- Mr. Reginald R. Muskett, a graduate student in the Department of Geology at the University of Akron, Akron, OH, prepared the following report. Mr. Muskett was a participant in the 1997 Summer Institute sponsored by NSF and the Science and Technology Agency (STA) of the Japanese government. Dr. T. Kodama and Dr. M. Hayakawa of the Earthquake Remote Sensing Research Group at the Earth Observations Research Center of the National Space Development Agency of Japan (NASDA) were his hosts. Mr. Muskett can be reached via email at: studioufo@mindspring.com. Seismo-electromagnetic Research in The Earthquake Remote Sensing Frontier Research Project, EORC/NASDA: An Overview. By Reginald R. Muskett "Earthquakes Cannot Be Predicted," Geller et al., 1997. A look at the seismological map of the Earth reveals that the epicenters of earthquakes are primarily long arcing strips - the seismological belts that encircle the planet. These seismological belts mark the Plate Tectonic boundaries of convergence, divergence and transformation that define the lithosphere plates of the Earth. Most of the active seismological belts lie close to or are underneath densely populated areas of human habitation. The metropolitan areas such as Tokyo, San Francisco, Santiago, and Rome are in danger of destruction by earthquakes. Statistics compiled by insurance companies such as Lloyds of London, rate earthquakes first among natural disasters in terms of severity of damage and loss of life. Thus since the inception of seismology, there has been a great urgency to seek reliable precursor phenomena of earthquakes and their generative processes (Gokhberg et al., 1995). Current research suggests that the seismic process is preceded by a complex set of physical phenomena, or precursors (Gokhberg et al., 1995). For the most part, seismic activity is monitored in the United States and elsewhere by arrays of seismometers which allow for the determination of the epicenter, hypocenter, and rupture parameters (magnitude, seismic moment, source mechanism, orientation of the fault plane and direction of motion) of an earthquake. These parameters, the mechanical properties of which have been studied for decades, are well known. However, seismic activity induces other variations of geophysical parameters such as the surrounding electric and magnetic fields. Under favorable conditions these electromagnetic variations may be observed before seismic rupture (Parrot et al., 1993). A recent workshop on earthquake precursors held at the University of Electro-Communications, Tokyo (sponsored by the National Space Development Agency of Japan), illustrated a w! ide range of seismo-electromagnetic precursor radiation (NASDA-CON-960003). In general, these electromagnetic precursors fall into four main time scale categories needed for prediction: long term (years), medium term (months), short term (days), and operative (minutes to hours). Of these, the short term and operative scale precursors are the most important because they are supposed to specify the moment in time of the earthquake event. From the point of view of geophysics, the ability of the Earth's crust in areas of active deformation to transform mechanical energy into electromagnetic waves is a possible contribution to the short-term prediction of seismic hazards (Gokhberg et al., 1995). Establishing a relationship between the anomalous electromagnetic emission parameters (or lack of) and the earthquake parameters is one goal of current research. Analysis of anomalous electromagnetic emission structure and the disturbance in the stress state has revealed a correlation between the electromagnetic effects and the mechanical processes occurring in the Earth's crust (Gokhberg et al., 1995). Molchanov and Hayakawa (1995) discussed the mechanism of electromagnetic emission by microfracturing as a possible source of the ULF (frequency range from 0.01 to 10 Hz) wave observations associated in time with the Loma Prieta (1989) and Spitak (1988) earthquakes. The most important and difficult problem in seismo-electromagnetic research is the location of source. This problem is related to both the physical processes in the earthquake preparation zone and the choice of monitoring device. With regard to the location of the source of anomalous electromagnetic emission there are two interpretations. Firstly there is the mechano-electric conversion at the earthquake focus (located at depth in the Earth's crust) and the epicentral region at the surface. This process involves the concept of an active emitter. The largest strains occur in the regions of maximum intensity and the accompanying physical and chemical process are expected to cause intense electromagnetic emission. Secondly, there are pulsed electromagnetic emission anomalies resulting from changes in the conditions for electromagnetic wave propagation in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide. The change in wave propagation conditions caused by the level of ionization above the epicentral region varies during the period of earthquake preparation. This causes electromagnetic interference above the epicentral region so that emissions sources can be located in the near surface atmosphere, upper atmosphere, and ionosphere. This process involves the concept of a passive emitter (Gokhberg et al., 1995). Hayakawa et al. (1993) proposed using the polarization, impedance, and coherence properties of multiple electromagnetic waves to determine the source of precursory emissions of earthquake processes. Recently, Afonin et al. (1997), using the data base of plasma density recordings from the Russian satellite Intercosmos-24, 25 and Cosmos-900, discovered a good correlation between the global distributio! n of seismic activity and ionospheric plasma density variations. On going research within the Seismoelectromagnetics research group of the Earth Observation Research Center/NASDA is focusing on the ULF observations and the types of mission instruments necessary for satellite observation. References: Afonin, V.V., Molchanov O.V., Kodama, T., Hayakawa, M., and Akentieva, O.A, 1997, Ionospheric plasma response to long seismic influence: search for reliable result from satellite observations, [draft] referred to in Abstracts of International Workshop on Seismic-Electromagnetics '97. NASDA Conference Publication, NASDA-CON-960003, p. 60. Geller, R.J., Jackson, D.D., Kagan, Y.Y., and Mulargia, F., 1997, Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Science, vol. 275, p. 1616-1617. Gokhberg, M., B., Morgounov, V., A., and Pokhotelov, O., A., 1995, Earthquake Prediction: Seismo-Electromagnetic Phenomena. Gordon and Breach Publishers, Russia. Molchanov, O. A., Kopytenko, Yu. A., Voronov, P. M., Kopytenko, E. A., Matiashvili, T. G., Fraser-Smith, A. C., and Bernardi, A., 1992, Results of ULF magnetic field measurements near the epicenters of the Spitak (Ms = 6.9) and Loma Prieta (Ms = 7.1) earthquakes: Comparative analysis. Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 19, no. 14, p. 1495-1498. Molchanov, O. A., and Hayakawa, M., 1995, Generation of ULF electromagnetic emissions by microfracturing. Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 22, no. 22, p. 3091-3094. NASDA-CON-960003, 1997, Abstracts of International Workshop on Seismo-Electromagnetics '97. Parrot, M., Achache, J., Berthelier, J. J., Blanc, E., Deschamps, A., Lefeuvre, F., Menvielle, M., Plantet, J.L., Tarits, P., and Villian, J. P., 1993, High-frequency seismo-electromagnetic effects. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, vol. 77, p. 65-83. ************************************************ Reggie Muskett thanks the governments of Japan and the United States of America, specifically the Earthquake Remote Sensing Research Group, the Earth Observations Research Center, the National Space Development Agency of Japan, and the National Science Foundation (Tokyo and Washington D.C. Offices), as well as the Department of Geology of The University of Akron, Ohio for support throughout the Summer Institute Japan Program 1997. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Send comments and questions by e-mail to Reggie Muskett at: studioufo@mindspring.com ________________________________________________________________