000
FLUS42 KJAX 021103
HWOJAX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
556 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-031100-
ALACHUA-APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BAKER-BRADFORD-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLAY-
CLINCH-COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-COFFEE-COLUMBIA-DUVAL-ECHOLS-
FLAGLER-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN-JEFF DAVIS-
MARION-NASSAU-PIERCE-PUTNAM-ST. JOHNS-SUWANNEE-UNION-WARE-WAYNE-
556 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG EXPECTED TONIGHT...

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST...

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE
FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL CHANCE RAPIDLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES...AND COULD BE AS LOW AS A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.
MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION AND USE LOW-BEAM HEADLIGHTS IN
FOG.

A HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
FLORIDA COAST...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS. 
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THE SANTA FE RIVER REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING. 

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

$$

ENYEDI

000
FXUS62 KJAX 020736
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
235 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...

.CURRENTLY...THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
SEABOARD HAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE EAST TONIGHT WHICH HAS INCREASED THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA. SFC OBS REPORT SSE WINDS OF 5 MPH
INLAND TO NEAR 12-13 MPH ALONG THE COAST...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FOG
DEVELOPMENT THUS FAR DUE TO MIXING. A N-S LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX INTO WESTERN GA FUELED FROM POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA) ROUNDING THE SW SIDE OF THE STACKED HIGH.
NOTE SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS ADVECTING WNW OFFSHORE OF THE FL
EAST COAST (5-7K FT)...WHILE DRY AIR CONTINUES ALOFT. 00Z RAOBS
INDICATE ALL MOISTURE IS TRAPPED BELOW 750MB (PWATS AOB 1.4").

.SHORT TERM...STACKED RIDGING OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS GRADUALLY
SHIFTS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
TROUGHING BRIDGES THE HIGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THICKNESS VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WED WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
CHALLENGING RECORDS. EXPECT SEABREEZES EACH AFTN...BUT WITH THE LACK
OF MID & UPR LVL DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES...
PRECIP IS NOT EXPECTED. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD TODAY
AND EXTEND OVER THE JAX CWA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL PROMOTE EARLY
DECOUPLING. WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LVL MOISTURE AND WITH DRY AIR
ALOFT...THE INGREDIENTS FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WED NIGHT THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE GFS
PICKS UP ON A PRE-FRONTAL PIECE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH
AND UP THE FL PENINSULA WED NIGHT...BUT WILL NOT CARRY POPS GREATER
THAN 14% YET FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE BULK OF FRONTAL PRECIP
REMAINS STALLED JUST N AND W OF OUR GA ZONES WED NIGHT...THEN ONCE
THE "KICKER" UPPER LVL TROUGH DIVES DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST LATE WED
NIGHT...THE SFC FRONT WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE JAX FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FUNNELS IN FROM THE NW IN ITS WAKE
FOR THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...A COOL START FOR FRI...BUT AN EVEN COLDER START SAT AS
A SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRI
AFTN/EVENING. BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND AS MEAN LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BECOMES
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT LATE SUN. MAX TEMPS WILL NOT
ONLY DROP TO NEAR CLIMO VALUES BY FRI...BUT BELOW CLIMO VALUES FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAXES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70 AND MINS IN THE UPPER 40S.

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE AND WED...
        TUE/2ND     WED/3RD
JAX     87/1995     87/1950
SSI     84/1961     85/1972
GNV     88/1929     90/1929
AMG     88/1961     87/1972

&&

.MARINE...RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY PROVIDING
SE WINDS IN AFTN VEERING SOUTH AT NIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ON
THURSDAY WILL SHIFT NW FOLLOWING FROPA WITH POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH BUILDS OVER SRN PLAINS. NO HEADLINES
IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 86 64 84 64 / 10 10 10 10
SSI 81 66 81 66 / 00 00 00 10
JAX 85 64 85 64 / 00 00 00 10
SGJ 81 67 81 66 / 00 00 00 10
GNV 87 63 87 63 / 00 00 00 10
OCF 87 63 87 64 / 00 00 00 10
&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...ENYEDI
MARINE/FIRE WX...TRABERT

000
NWUS52 KJAX 202331
LSRJAX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
731 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OCALA                   29.19N 82.13W 
10/20/2004                   MARION             FL   PUBLIC          

            PUBLIC REPORT OF TREE LIMB BLOWN INTO ROOF WITH MINOR 
            ROOF DAMAGE. LOCATED IN SE OCALA METRO AREA.


&&

$$

HESS

000
ABNT20 KNHC 020949
TWOAT 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
530 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER JARVINEN

$$ 

000
WTUS82 KJAX 271816
HLSJAX
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-272200-

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
215 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004

...JEANNE WEAKENS TO DEPRESSION...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
CANCELLED...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THE CONTENT OF THIS LOCAL STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO
BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...NASSAU...DUVAL...ST. JOHNS...FLAGLER...BRADFORD...CLAY...
PUTNAM...ALACHUA...MARION...UNION...BAKER...GILCHRIST...COLUMBIA...
SUWANNEE AND HAMILTON. IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...CAMDEN...GLYNN...
WAYNE...BRANTLEY...CHARLTON...APPLING...PIERCE...WARE...JEFF DAVIS...
BACON...COFFEE...ATKINSON...CLINCH AND ECHOLS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
...A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA UNTIL 8 PM...
...A FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NASSAU...BAKER...COLUMBIA...
HAMILTON...SUWANNEE...UNION...BRADFORD...CLAY...DUVAL...GILCHRIST...
ALACHUA AND PUTNAM COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND ATKINSON...
WARE...CLINCH...ECHOLS...PIERCE...BRANTLEY...CHARLTON AND CAMDEN
COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA UNTIL 500 PM...

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM EDT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 83.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH OF
MACON GEORGIA. JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14
MPH...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DUE TO THE STRENUOUS CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH JEANNE... OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF AROUND 40 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE WELL
BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE
THEREFORE DISCONTINUED. WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 800
PM THIS EVENING. WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.

AT 200 PM WIND GUSTS UP TO 43 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT JACKSONVILLE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. OTHER RECENT LOCAL WIND GUSTS REPORTS...
CRAIG FIELD...42 MPH
NAVAL AIR STATION JACKSONVILLE...38 MPH
ST AUGUSTINE...29 MPH
OCALA...38 MPH
GAINESVILLE...38 MPH
VALDOSTA...30 MPH
WAYCROSS...35 MPH
ALMA...39 MPH
DOUGLAS...28 MPH
ST SIMONS...31 MPH
BRUNSWICK...23 MPH


...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AVOID DOWNED POWER LINES AND REMEMBER TO TREAT ALL DOWNED POWERLINES
AS IF THEY WERE LIVE. GENERATORS SHOULD ONLY BE USED IN WELL
VENTILATED AREAS...DO NOT RUN GENERATORS IN GARAGES OR SHEDS.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
TIDES ON THE OPEN OCEAN HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR NORMAL.
TIDES ON THE ST JOHNS RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO BE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY. TIDES ON THE RIVER AND ITS TRIBUTARIES WILL BE SLOW TO
DECREASE AND MAY TAKE SEVERAL DAYS TO RETURN TO NORMAL.

...WIND IMPACTS...
MUCH OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AREA ARE CONTINUING
TO SEE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.
THESE WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ENDED OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF UP TO
HALF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RESIDUAL RAIN BANDS...MOSTLY IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 5 PM TODAY FOR MUCH OF NORTH
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED. NEVER DRIVE INTO FLOODED AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL POSE A RENEWED OR CONTINUED THREAT OF
FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS.

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
NONE

...NEXT UPDATE...
THIS WILL BE THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE ON JEANNE.

$$

LETRO

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021143
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 AM EST TUE 02 NOV 2004

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN
COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 20N 
MOVING W 10 KT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD CYCLONIC 
CURVATURE TO THE FLOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...THE AXIS APPEARS TO 
BE CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 18N BETWEEN 58W-72W. 

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ALONG 
90W/91W S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT. THE ENERGY ALONG THE NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS SPLIT OFF OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 
89W...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY 
W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF 
88W FROM 24N TO THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 11N10W 9N20W 6N31W 8N40W 9N46W 10N53W 14N65W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/105 
NM OF LINE 9N45W-13N56W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION COVER A 
BROAD AREA OF THE E TROPICS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 9W-43W. 

...DISCUSSION...

TEXAS COAST AND NORTHERN MEXICO...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES PREVIOUSLY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE TEXAS 
COAST AND NORTHERN MEXICO ARE NOW COMBINED WITHIN ONE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING FROM 
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AT 02/0900 
UTC...THE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS 
BORDER TO A 1004 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 28N96W 
INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE INTO NE MEXICO TO 25N98W 
THEN W AND NW OVER NE MEXICO. MOST OF THE COLD AIR AND SURFACE 
ENERGY IS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO MIDWAY BETWEEN 
TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE N ALONG 27N97W TO THE N COAST OF TEXAS 
NEAR GALVESTON THEN FANNING EASTWARD ACROSS W LOUISIANA. A BROAD 
UPPER LEVEL COLD CORE LOW REMAINS CENTERED WELL W OF THE FRONT 
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

REMAINDER OF GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC WEST OF 70W...
STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO PRODUCE RELATIVELY FAIR 
WEATHER OVER THE AREA. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED 
OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 28N76W AND A LARGE AREA OF 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERING THE MOST OF THE 
GULF...THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 70W...AND THE W ATLC W OF 
70W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1022 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 30N74W. 

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLANTIC W OF 50W...
BAD WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AS A TROPICAL 
WAVE...A SURFACE TROUGH...AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS 
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF 70W INTO THE 
TROPICAL ATLC. MID/UPPER LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE S COAST OF 
JAMAICA RETROGRADING W WHILE CONTINUING TO DRAW A LARGE SWATH OF 
MOISTURE N OF 14N E OF 70W. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 
COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 22N52W TO 21N65W AND IS 
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 
60 NM S OF THE TROUGH. OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...DRY AIR CONTINUES 
TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA AND JAMAICA PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER N OF 15N. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALIGNED FROM PANAMA COAST TO CENTRAL 
NICARAGUA WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE GENERATING SCATTERED/ 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 10N77W-11N82W 
THEN N ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO 14N84W. 

ATLANTIC EAST OF 70W AND THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
A BROAD AND FLAT DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 21N 
FROM 25W-70W WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING INTO THE AREA FROM 
A 1013 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N39W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
SW ALONG 26N43W TO A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 22N52W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 
NM OF LINE FROM 29N38W 30N31W TO 33N27W. WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS S 
OF THE TROUGH TO 10N...WHERE AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALIGNED ALONG THE 
ITCZ AND ENHANCING AREAS OF MODERATE CONVECTION. FARTHER 
E...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LIES ALONG 11W AND MOVING E OVER 
W AFRICA. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED JUST W OF THE CANARY 
ISLANDS WHICH IS STRENGTHENING THE NE FLOW MOVING ALONG THE 
MOROCCAN COAST INTO THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE

000
ACUS01 KWNS 020547
SWODY1
SPC AC 020545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 25 NNE SEA
50 N PDX 15 N ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BRO 10 WNW NIR
20 WNW CLL 45 S TYR 35 SSW ELD 25 SE PBF 30 NW MEM 25 W PAH 10 SE
MIE 20 N MFD 20 NNE YNG 25 ENE PIT MGW 15 S JKL 20 ESE CSV 35 NNE
GAD SEM 35 SE MOB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD AS NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER
MS VALLEY MOVES RAPIDLY EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE SECOND FEATURE
MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW / NRN CA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.  FURTHER S HOWEVER...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE UPPER LOW NOW
MOVING ACROSS W TX.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO ROTATE SLOWLY ENEWD INTO
WRN N TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ONLY EXTENDING AS FAR E AS E TX BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY
OF LK ERIE SWWD TO THE TX GULF COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 
NRN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD AHEAD OF NRN
STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NE U.S. COAST BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...TX GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS / TN VALLEYS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION ATTM...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
DAY 1 PERIOD AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR W TX /
SERN OK.  WITH UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SERN CONUS
AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING W OF THE
REGION...WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD / SLOW
MOVING AREA OF CONVECTION -- SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL ACROSS THIS REGION.

ALONG WITH THE ANTICIPATED WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SHOULD REMAIN W OF THIS REGION -- ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN TX THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  THEREFORE...WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT ATTM.

..GOSS.. 11/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

000
ACUS02 KWNS 020835
SWODY2
SPC AC 020834

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE LCH 20 NW MLU
40 SSW PBF 50 N HOT 40 SW JEF 35 ENE MMO 10 NNE TOL 15 NNW CAK 20
SSW HLG BLF 20 NNW GSO 30 W GSB 25 W ILM 35 SW CRE 40 WNW CHS 25 SW
AHN 25 ENE LGC 30 W PFN.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER W TX WILL EJECT NEWD TOMORROW TOWARD
THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SEWD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP NNEWD IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TO THE OH VALLEY.  THOUGH THE STRONGER JET CORE WILL LIKELY REMAIN W
OF THE WARM SECTOR...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN A BAND NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
THE SE LA/MS/AL/WRN TN AREA.  A POTENTIAL LIMITING
FACTOR...HOWEVER...WILL BE POOR LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY WEAK
INSTABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR.  ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS IN A BAND NEAR THE FRONT...BUT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS TOO MARGINAL TO JUSTIFY A CATEGORICAL
OUTLOOK AREA AT THIS TIME.

..THOMPSON.. 11/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

000
ACUS03 KWNS 021100
SWODY3
SPC AC 021059

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH A NRN STREAM
WAVE FORECAST TO DIG SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND A CLOSED/CUTOFF
LOW OVER CA.  THE REMNANTS OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS WILL EJECT QUICKLY NEWD OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION IN
ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING GREAT LAKES TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE...A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND SE STATES IN
THE WAKE OF THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE.  THE BACKGROUND PATTERN
EVOLUTION AND TRENDS IN THE GFS/ETA AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...THUS SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY.

..THOMPSON.. 11/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

000
ACUS11 KWNS 020930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020930 
MSZ000-LAZ000-021130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 020930Z - 021130Z

MARGINAL THREAT OF AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR A BRIEF TORNADO
MAY PERSIST NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT
A WW.

EARLY THIS MORNING A LINE OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL MS SWWD THROUGH SWRN LA. STRONGEST STORMS IN
THIS LINE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO EXTREME SW MS WHERE LATEST RADAR
DATA HAS SHOWN OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT ROTATION. THE JACKSON VWP SHOWS
VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES AND LATEST RUC SOUNDING DATA SHOWS
0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY AROUND 150 M2/S2 BASED ON CURRENT
STORM MOTIONS. THESE STORMS ARE BEING FORCED ALONG CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING COLD POOL AND ARE MOVING INTO
AN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH TENDENCY FOR THE LOW LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR TO WEAKEN WITH TIME
SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

..DIAL.. 11/02/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

29909322 30759207 32169085 32469033 31868991 29799151 

000
FNUS52 KJAX 021000
FWFJAX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
500 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

...NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES MAY DROP BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IN THE SUWANNEE VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH.

FLZ024-025-022200-
DUVAL-NASSAU-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FERNANDINA BEACH...JACKSONVILLE
500 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0
MAX/MIN TEMP          86           64           86
MAX/MIN RH (%)        55           100          55
20FT WIND/AM (MPH)    SE 5-9                    S 3-7
20FT WIND/PM (MPH)    SE 6-10      SE 2-6       SE 4-8
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION       0            0            0
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HEIGHT (FT)    4500         400          4500
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SE 12        S  5         S 12
DISPERSION INDEX      55           3            43

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY MORNING FOG.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WEST WINDS 10 MPH.

$$

FLZ033-038-022200-
FLAGLER-ST JOHNS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ST AUGUSTINE
500 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       MCLEAR
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0
MAX/MIN TEMP          85           65           85
MAX/MIN RH (%)        56           99           55
20FT WIND/AM (MPH)    SE 4-8                    S 3-7
20FT WIND/PM (MPH)    E 6-10       SE 3-7       SE 5-9
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION       0            0            0
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HEIGHT (FT)    4600         300          4500
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SE 15        S  5         SE 12
DISPERSION INDEX      55           3            43

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. PATCHY MORNING FOG. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WEST WINDS 10 MPH.

$$

FLZ031-032-036-037-040-022200-
ALACHUA-BRADFORD-CLAY-MARION-PUTNAM-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAINESVILLE...GREEN COVE SPRINGS...OCALA...
PALATKA
500 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0
MAX/MIN TEMP          87           62           87
MAX/MIN RH (%)        49           100          49
20FT WIND/AM (MPH)    SE 4-8                    S 3-7
20FT WIND/PM (MPH)    SE 3-7       SE 1-5       SE 2-6
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION       0            0            0
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HEIGHT (FT)    4700         300          4600
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SE 10        E  7         S 12
DISPERSION INDEX      47           2            40

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY MORNING FOG.
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

$$

FLZ020>023-030-035-022200-
BAKER-COLUMBIA-GILCHRIST-HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAKE CITY...LIVE OAK
500 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        MCLEAR       PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0
MAX/MIN TEMP          87           62           87
MAX/MIN RH (%)        53           100          53
20FT WIND/AM (MPH)    S 5-9                     S 4-8
20FT WIND/PM (MPH)    S 2-6        LGT/VAR      S 3-7
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION       0            0            0
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HEIGHT (FT)    4600         300          4600
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 12         SE  5        S 14
DISPERSION INDEX      47           2            46

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PATCHY MORNING FOG.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WEST WINDS 10 MPH.

$$

GAZ132>136-149>152-162>164-022200-
APPLING-ATKINSON-BACON-BRANTLEY-CHARLTON-CLINCH-COFFEE-ECHOLS-
JEFF DAVIS-PIERCE-WARE-WAYNE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAXLEY...DOUGLAS...HOMERVILLE...JESUP...
NAHUNTA...PEARSON...WAYCROSS
500 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY        PCLDY        PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0
MAX/MIN TEMP          86           63           85
MAX/MIN RH (%)        54           100          57
20FT WIND/AM (MPH)    S 5-9                     S 2-6
20FT WIND/PM (MPH)    SE 3-7       SE 2-6       S 3-7
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION       0            0            0
PRECIP BEGIN                       1 AM
PRECIP END                         4 AM
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HEIGHT (FT)    4600         300          4500
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 12         S  5         S 13
DISPERSION INDEX      49           3            39

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
WEST WINDS 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WEST WINDS 10 MPH.

$$

GAZ153-154-165-166-022200-
CAMDEN (COASTAL)-CAMDEN (INLAND)-GLYNN (COASTAL)-GLYNN (INLAND)-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRUNSWICK...ST MARYS
500 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      WED

CLOUD COVER           MCLEAR       MCLEAR       PCLDY
PRECIP TYPE           NONE         NONE         NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     0            0            0
MAX/MIN TEMP          85           64           84
MAX/MIN RH (%)        58           100          61
20FT WIND/AM (MPH)    S 5-9                     S 3-7
20FT WIND/PM (MPH)    SE 6-10      SE 3-7       SE 4-8
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.00         0.00         0.00
PRECIP DURATION       0            0            0
PRECIP BEGIN
PRECIP END
LAL                   1            1            1
MIXING HEIGHT (FT)    4400         300          4400
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SE 12        S  5         S 10
DISPERSION INDEX      57           4            41

REMARKS...NONE.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S. WEST WINDS 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEST
WINDS 10 MPH.

$$

TRABERT

000
WWUS82 KJAX 311015
RFWJAX

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
614 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

FLZ023>025-030>033-036>038-040-312200-
ALACHUA-BAKER-BRADFORD-CLAY-DUVAL-FLAGLER-MARION-NASSAU-PUTNAM-
ST JOHNS-UNION-
614 AM EDT MON MAY 31 2004

...RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA
FOR BRIEF DURATIONS OF CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COUPLED WITH
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 15 PH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE...

DISCUSSION...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND
35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ABOUT 2 HOURS.  ALSO...20 FOOT
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IN ADDITION...DISPERSION INDICES MAY REACH NEAR 80 IN SOME
INTERIOR AREAS.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS OR FIRE CREWS.

FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX/FIREWX.SHTML.

$$
ZAPPE

000
FNUS72 KJAX 011742
SMFJAX
FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-012000-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA DISPERSION FORECAST UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1212 PM EST MON NOV 1 2004

                      TONIGHT

CLOUD COVER           PCLDY
20FT WIND/PM (MPH)    SE 3-7
MIXING HEIGHT (FT)    200
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SE  5
DISPERSION INDEX      2

$$

DEESE

000
FZUS52 KJAX 020851
CWFJAX

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
430 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT
TO 60 NM

AMZ400-021530-
SYNOPSIS FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 60 NM-
430 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY FRIDAY. THEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEST OF THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

AMZ450-452-454-021530-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT TO 20 NM-
430 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

.TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND WATERS A
LIGHT CHOP.
.TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND WATERS
MOSTLY SMOOTH. AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET. INLAND WATERS A
LIGHT CHOP.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET. INLAND WATERS
MOSTLY SMOOTH.

.THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 KNOTS...SHIFTING WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET. INLAND WATERS A MODERATE CHOP.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. INLAND WATERS
A MODERATE CHOP.
.SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. INLAND WATERS
A MODERATE CHOP.

$$

AMZ470-472-474-021530-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
430 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

.TODAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
.TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.
.WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FEET.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTH WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

.THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 4
FEET. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.FRIDAY...NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS...SHIFTING NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
.SATURDAY...NORTH WINDS 15 KNOTS. SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.

$$

TRABERT

000
FZUS52 KJAX 021123
SRFJAX
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
620 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004

GAZ154-166-031100-
COASTAL CAMDEN-COASTAL GLYNN-
620 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004


RIP CURRENT RISK: LOW. RIP CURRENTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND ARE LIKELY
TO BE WEAK BUT MAY POSE A DANGER TO POOR SWIMMERS. HOWEVER...THEY ARE
STRONGER AND MORE FREQUENT IN THE VICINITY OF JETTIES...INLETS...AND
PIERS. KNOW HOW TO SWIM AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL.

WIND: SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 MPH.

SURF: BREAKERS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 FEET.

UV INDEX: 4...IN THE MODERATE RANGE.

$$

FLZ024-025-033-038-031100-
DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST. JOHNS-
620 AM EST TUE NOV 2 2004


...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

RIP CURRENT RISK: MODERATE. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MEANS
WIND AND/OR WAVE CONDITIONS SUPPORT STRONGER OR MORE FREQUENT RIP
CURRENTS. ONLY EXPERIENCED SURF SWIMMERS SHOULD ENTER THE WATER.

WIND: SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.

SURF: BREAKERS WILL AVERAGE 2 FEET.

UV INDEX: 4...IN THE MODERATE RANGE.

OUTLOOK: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY.

$$

TRABERT

000
FZUS72 KJAX 192237
MWSJAX
AMZ452-192315-

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
636 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OFFSHORE OF GUANA RIVER STATE PARK...

AT 636 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM APPROACHING GUANA RIVER STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT
10 KNOTS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS...LOCALLY HIGHER
WAVES...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE
HARBOR...OR AT LEAST SHELTER BELOW DECK IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM
PASSES.

REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR
REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

$$

ENYEDI

000
WHUS52 KJAX 032253
SMWJAX
AMZ450-452-032345-
/X.NEW.KJAX.MA.W.0012.041003T2252Z-041003T2345Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SPECIAL MARINE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
652 PM EDT SUN OCT 3 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR...
  COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH, FL OUT 20
  NM...
  COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE, FL OUT 20
  NM...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT

* AT 644 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS 10
  MILES NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS.

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN AWAY FROM
  SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LANDMARKS OVER THE INDICATED AREAS.

MARINERS CAN ALSO EXPECT LOCALLY HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK
SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF CAUGHT ON THE OPEN
WATER STAY BELOW DECK IF POSSIBLE...KEEP AWAY FROM UNGROUNDED METAL
OBJECTS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS...HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. SEEK SAFE HARBOR
IMMEDIATELY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COAST GUARD. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN JACKSONVILLE.

LAT...LON 3094 8148 3081 8162 3053 8136 3072 8114

$$

PETERSON

000
WHUS42 KJAX 260227
CFWJAX

COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1020 PM EDT MON OCT 25 2004

FLZ024-025-033-038-260320-
/X.CAN.KJAX.MA.S.0010.000000T0000Z-041026T1000Z/
DUVAL-FLAGLER-NASSAU-ST. JOHNS-
1020 PM EDT MON OCT 25 2004

...SWELLS DECREASING ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...

SWELLS FROM A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COASTLINE. HOWEVER...
THE SWELLS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 5 FEET. AS A RESULT...SURF
ALONG AREA BEACHES SHOULD DECREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET. THE SWELLS STILL
POSE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AND CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WHEN
ENTERING THE WATER...ESPECIALLY NEAR INLETS AND JETTIES.

$$

CAMP

000
FGUS52 KALR 011543
RVFJAX
RIVER FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SOUTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER ATLANTA GA
FORECASTS INCLUDE 24-HOUR FUTURE RAINFALL IN 6 HOUR INCREMENTS
1038 AM EST MON NOV 01 2004
:

:    FORECAST ISSUED BY GEORGIA FORECASTER
:
:*************************************************************************
:BAXLEY - Altamaha River
:FLOOD STAGE  74.5     ACTION STAGE  72.5
:
:LATEST STAGE    66.85 FT AT 715 AM EST ON 1101
.ER BAXG1    1101 E DC200411011038/DH13/HGIFF/DIH6
:QPF FORECAST        7AM        1PM        7PM        1AM
.E1 :1101:              /      66.8/      66.7/      66.6
.E2 :1102:   /      66.6/      66.5/      66.4/      66.4
.E3 :1103:   /      66.3/      66.3/      66.2/      66.2
.E4 :1104:   /      66.1/      66.1/      66.0/      66.0
.E5 :1105:   /      65.9/      65.9/      65.9/      65.8
.E6 :1106:   /      65.8
.ER BAXG1    1101 E DC200411011038/DH13/PPQFZ/DIH6/  0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00  
:*************************************************************************
:DOCTORTOWN - Altamaha River
:FLOOD STAGE  14.0     ACTION STAGE  10.0
:
:LATEST STAGE     7.93 FT AT 1015 AM EST ON 1101
.ER DCTG1    1101 E DC200411011038/DH13/HGIFF/DIH6
:QPF FORECAST        7AM        1PM        7PM        1AM
.E1 :1101:              /       7.9/       7.9/       7.9
.E2 :1102:   /       7.8/       7.8/       7.7/       7.7
.E3 :1103:   /       7.6/       7.6/       7.6/       7.5
.E4 :1104:   /       7.5/       7.4/       7.4/       7.3
.E5 :1105:   /       7.3/       7.2/       7.2/       7.1
.E6 :1106:   /       7.1
.ER DCTG1    1101 E DC200411011038/DH13/PPQFZ/DIH6/  0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00  
:*************************************************************************
:WAYCROSS - Satilla River
:FLOOD STAGE  16.0     ACTION STAGE  14.0
:
:LATEST STAGE     8.36 FT AT 630 AM EST ON 1101
.ER AYSG1    1101 E DC200411011038/DH13/HGIFF/DIH6
:QPF FORECAST        7AM        1PM        7PM        1AM
.E1 :1101:              /       8.4/       8.4/       8.4
.E2 :1102:   /       8.4/       8.3/       8.3/       8.3
.E3 :1103:   /       8.3/       8.3/       8.3/       8.3
.E4 :1104:   /       8.3/       8.2/       8.2/       8.2
.E5 :1105:   /       8.2/       8.2/       8.2/       8.2
.E6 :1106:   /       8.2
.ER AYSG1    1101 E DC200411011038/DH13/PPQFZ/DIH6/  0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00  
:*************************************************************************
:THREE RIVER ESTATES - Santa Fe River
:FLOOD STAGE  19.0     ACTION STAGE  16.0
:
:LATEST STAGE    21.46 FT AT 700 AM EST ON 1101
.ER TREF1    1101 E DC200411011038/DH13/HGIFF/DIH6
:QPF FORECAST        7AM        1PM        7PM        1AM
.E1 :1101:              /      21.4/      21.3/      21.2
.E2 :1102:   /      21.2/      21.1/      21.1/      21.0
.E3 :1103:   /      20.9/      20.9/      20.8/      20.8
.E4 :1104:   /      20.7/      20.6/      20.6/      20.5
.E5 :1105:   /      20.5/      20.4/      20.3/      20.3
.E6 :1106:   /      20.2
.ER TREF1    1101 E DC200411011038/DH13/PPQFZ/DIH6/  0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00  
:*************************************************************************
:FT WHITE (HWY 129) - Santa Fe River
:FLOOD STAGE  21.0     ACTION STAGE  19.0
:
:LATEST STAGE    21.07 FT AT 1015 AM EST ON 1101
:FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AROUND 5PM ON 11/01/2004
.ER FTWF1    1101 E DC200411011038/DH13/HGIFF/DIH6
:QPF FORECAST        7AM        1PM        7PM        1AM
.E1 :1101:              /      21.0/      21.0/      20.9
.E2 :1102:   /      20.8/      20.7/      20.7/      20.6
.E3 :1103:   /      20.6/      20.5/      20.4/      20.4
.E4 :1104:   /      20.3/      20.2/      20.2/      20.1
.E5 :1105:   /      20.0/      20.0/      19.9/      19.9
.E6 :1106:   /      19.8
.ER FTWF1    1101 E DC200411011038/DH13/PPQFZ/DIH6/  0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00  
:*************************************************************************
:FT WHITE  - Santa Fe River
:FLOOD STAGE  24.0     ACTION STAGE  22.0
:
:LATEST STAGE    24.93 FT AT 900 AM EST ON 1101
.ER FWHF1    1101 E DC200411011038/DH13/HGIFF/DIH6
:QPF FORECAST        7AM        1PM        7PM        1AM
.E1 :1101:              /      24.9/      24.9/      24.8
.E2 :1102:   /      24.8/      24.8/      24.7/      24.7
.E3 :1103:   /      24.7/      24.6/      24.6/      24.6
.E4 :1104:   /      24.5/      24.5/      24.5/      24.5
.E5 :1105:   /      24.4/      24.4/      24.4/      24.3
.E6 :1106:   /      24.3
.ER FWHF1    1101 E DC200411011038/DH13/PPQFZ/DIH6/  0.00/0.00/0.00/0.00  
:***********************************************************************
:COMMENT
:
:
:
:
:
: SERFC
:
:...END OF MESSAGE...

000
FGUS62 KALR 260204
ESGJAX
FLC003-089-GAC049-FLC019-031-290200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
958 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004

...RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...

HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS FORECAST OVER GEORGIA AND FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF ALREADY SATURATED SOILS.
WIDESPREAD BASIN-AVERAGED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5.5 INCHES
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO  7 INCHES MAY CAUSE RIVERS
AND STREAMS TO RISE TO LEVELS THAT RESULT IN FLOODING.

THIS RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK IS IN EFFECT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR...

- MODERATE FLOODING ON THE St. Marys NEAR MACCLENNY
- MODERATE FLOODING ON THE N Fk Black Creek NEAR MIDDLEBURG


A RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR RIVER
FLOODING...BUT IT IS NOT IMMINENT.  FORECAST RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE TO CRITICAL STAGES.  PERSONS WITH
INTERESTS ALONG THE AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD REMAIN INFORMED
OF THE LATEST WEATHER AND RIVER INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE ACTION AS NECESSARY.  PLEASE REFER TO NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION IN YOUR AREA.

A GRAPHIC SHOWING THE COUNTIES...RIVER FORECAST POINT LOCATIONS...
AND RIVER REACHES IN THE OUTLOOK AREA IS AVAILABLE AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE /USE LOWER CASE/:

     HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SERFC/RFO/JAXRFO.HTML


$$