Welcome Back to Seabreeze by Scott Carroll
Freeze Climatology in Jacksonville by Jason Hess & Mike McAllister
Forecast Product Advances by Phil Peterson
December 2003-February 2004 Weather
Year in Review: 2003
Co-op Corner
What's New on the Website?
WELCOME BACK TO SEABREEZE
by Scott Carroll Senior Forecaster/Webmaster
Welcome back to our newsletter! It's been a while since an up-to-date version of Seabreeze has been available. There have been many changes at your local National Weather Service Office, and we hope to keep you informed of these changes with seasonal updates of Seabreeze.
In this issue, we have new articles discussing freeze climatology in the Jacksonville area and our 7-day forecasts. We've also begun a new segment, "Co-op Corner", which covers observer and station milestones, along with events in our cooperative observer program. We've also reformatted the seasonal climate summaries and included are rainfall totals from our observers.
Keep watching the headline section on the front page of our website for new versions of Seabreeze. The next edition is scheduled for mid-June and will include information on the upcoming hurricane season- including safety tips and a webpage user's guide. Thanks for visiting the National Weather Service in Jacksonville!
| Website/Webletter NOAA Weather Radio Warnings/Outreach Climate Other Comments |
scott.carroll@noaa.gov michael.mcallister@noaa.gov al.sandrik@noaa.gov angela.enyedi@noaa.gov steve.letro@noaa.gov |
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FREEZE CLIMATOLOGY IN JACKSONVILLE
by Jason Hess Senior Forecaster/Climate Team
and Mike McAllister Data Acquisition Program Manager
Jacksonville's climate
history extends back 175 years to 1829, with U.S. Weather Bureau/National
Weather Service readings beginning in
1871. The complex part of this history is the frequent movement
of not only the location of the weather recording equipment, but also
the height at which it measured weather variables.
In short, from 1871 to
1956, the climate data for Jacksonville was measured at several
different locations- mainly on top of different buildings- all in the
downtown area. In 1956, the official climate readings shifted from the
downtown Post Office location to Imeson Field/Jacksonville Municipal
Airport, located 7 miles north of downtown off of North Main Street.
Since 1971, the official readings have been taken at Jacksonville
International Airport (JIA), 6 miles northwest of the Imeson Airport
location.
Because of the dramatic
change in the local climate regime from the downtown area to the north
side of Jacksonville, comparisons of each winter's seasonal
freeze data is rather complex. This can be seen by the historical
averages
at each location. The seasonal number of freeze days recorded during
the downtown era only averaged 5.7 freezes, while that number
jumped to 12.5 freeze days during the years at Imeson Field, and
currently the average number of freeze days per winter season at JIA
since 1971 is 18.2.
In an
attempt to rank the coldest winter seasons here over the entire
historical record, winter seasonal averages were computed as a
percentage for each location to make a more direct comparison. For
example, in the 2003-2004 winter season we recorded 24 freezes at JIA
which is 132% of the seasonal average of 18.2. Refer to Table 1 to some of the coldest
winters in JAX based on the number of freeze days and computed seasonal
averages.
On the other side of the
scale, which winter seasons may qualify as the warmest on record?
While at the downtown location, the climate records show that
the temperature never fell to 32 degrees or below during 5 winter
seasons. Those seasons are
1879-80, 1905-06, 1912-13, 1920-21, and most recently in
1949-50. In fact, the temperature recorded downtown
never got below 36 degrees during the winter of 1949-50. There were also 7 winter
seasons at the downtown location that only recorded 1 freeze during the
winter. In more recent history at the Imeson Field and JIA locations,
the warmest winters are recorded in Table
2.
| Rank |
Season |
Location |
Freeze Days |
%of Normal |
Coldest
Temperature |
| 1 |
1939-40 |
Downtown (1) |
16 |
281% |
17 |
| T2 |
1894-95 1917-18 |
Downtown (4) Downtown (3) |
15 |
263% |
14 19 |
| T3 |
1901-02 1904-05 1935-36 |
Downtown (4) Downtown (2) Downtown (1) |
14 |
246% |
20 17 23 |
| 4 |
1876-77 |
Downtown (5) |
12 |
211% |
24 |
| 5 |
1976-77 |
Int'l
Airport |
37 |
203% |
19 |
| 6 |
1957-58 |
Imeson
Field |
25 |
200% |
17 |
| T7 |
1872-73 1892-93 1950-51 |
Downtown (5) Downtown (4) Downtown (1) |
11 |
193% |
24 24 23 |
| 8 |
1977-78 |
Int'l
Airport |
33 |
181% |
24 |
| T9 |
1895-96 1899-1900 1911-12 1927-28 |
Downtown (4) Downtown (4) Downtown (2) Downtown (3) |
10 |
175% |
24 18 26 19 |
| 10 |
1975-76 |
Int'l
Airport |
31 |
170% |
23 |
| T11 |
1984-85 2000-01 |
Int'l
Airport |
30 |
165% |
7 21 |
| Downtown Locations (1) U.S. Court House and Post Office Bldg. on W. Monroe St. Thermometers in roof shelter 86 ft. above ground level (AGL). (2) Dyal-Upchurch Bldg. on Main & Bay Streets. Thermometers in roof shelter 100 ft. AGL. (3) Heard Nat'l Bank/Graham Bldg. on Forsyth & Laura Streets. Thermometers in roof shelter 209 ft. AGL. (4) Astor Bldg. on Bay & Hogan Streets. Thermometers in window shelter 30 feet AGL. (5) Freedman's Bank Bldg. on Main & Forsyth Streets. Thermometers in window shelter 20 ft. AGL. |
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Table 1
Coldest winters in Jacksonville, FL since 1871 based on freeze days (in percent of
normal at given location)
| Rank |
Season |
Location |
Freeze Days |
%
of Normal |
Coldest Temperature |
| 1 |
1971-72 |
Int'l
Airport |
5 |
27% |
28 |
| 2 |
1956-57 |
Imeson
Field |
4 |
32% |
28 |
| 3 |
1992-93 |
Int'l
Airport |
6 |
33% |
26 |
| 4 |
1994-95 |
Int'l
Airport |
7 |
38% |
20 |
| 5 |
1997-98 |
Int'l
Airport |
8 |
44% |
27 |
| 6 |
1953-54 |
Imeson
Field |
6 |
48% |
26 |
| 7 |
1996-97 |
Int'l
Airport |
9 |
49% |
23 |
Table 2 Warmest winters in
Jacksonville, FL since 1950 based on freeze days (in percent of normal at given location)
Since the end of 2003, the seven day forecast also includes probability of precipitation out to seven days along with forecast of winds and visibility restrictions out to five days. While there is no specific forecast of winds beyond five days, descriptors such as “windy” or “breezy” are used if necessary.
The forecast is issued, at a minimum, twice daily with updates throughout the day as needed. The morning forecast is issued no later than 4 am and covers the 6 am to 6 pm time frame, while the evening forecast is issued no later than 4 pm and covers the 6 pm to 6 am time frame.
With the new and improved services comes an essential item for our users: better precision. On our website, we have graphical forecasts which are a part of the new experimental National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) and Point Forecast Matrices (PFM) which give “pinpoint” forecasts for numerous locations that are taken directly from the graphics. The Point Forecast Matrices are also sent out just before our Seven Day Forecasts and are updated throughout the day as well.
While a forecast of “partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers” is sufficient in many cases, the forecast may be better portrayed by looking at the graphics and matrices to get a better feeling for the onset of the specific weather- especially if precipitation will begin at a certain time. For example, our users can find out that it will be sunny in the morning, followed by mostly cloudy conditions in the afternoon with scattered showers after 1 pm. Since the first half the day will be nice, the user will have a better idea on when to plan events.
The new era of forecasting will definitely include more precise forecasts. Our users should only expect the very best from the National Weather Service.
On September 5th, 2001, the
National Weather Service expanded its forecast out to seven days. The
previous format had a regular forecast out to two days, followed by a
three day extended forecast. The new format no longer has the so called
extended forecast portion. The entire product is now known as the Seven Day Forecast. Why the change?
Advances in technology and computer modeling allow us to study the
atmosphere better and more quickly than ever before. We are also
staffed with personnel that are well trained and very familiar with the
local climatology. Therefore, our users should get the very best
forecast possible.
Since the end of 2003, the seven day forecast also includes probability of precipitation out to seven days along with forecast of winds and visibility restrictions out to five days. While there is no specific forecast of winds beyond five days, descriptors such as “windy” or “breezy” are used if necessary.
The forecast is issued, at a minimum, twice daily with updates throughout the day as needed. The morning forecast is issued no later than 4 am and covers the 6 am to 6 pm time frame, while the evening forecast is issued no later than 4 pm and covers the 6 pm to 6 am time frame.
With the new and improved services comes an essential item for our users: better precision. On our website, we have graphical forecasts which are a part of the new experimental National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) and Point Forecast Matrices (PFM) which give “pinpoint” forecasts for numerous locations that are taken directly from the graphics. The Point Forecast Matrices are also sent out just before our Seven Day Forecasts and are updated throughout the day as well.
While a forecast of “partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers” is sufficient in many cases, the forecast may be better portrayed by looking at the graphics and matrices to get a better feeling for the onset of the specific weather- especially if precipitation will begin at a certain time. For example, our users can find out that it will be sunny in the morning, followed by mostly cloudy conditions in the afternoon with scattered showers after 1 pm. Since the first half the day will be nice, the user will have a better idea on when to plan events.
The new era of forecasting will definitely include more precise forecasts. Our users should only expect the very best from the National Weather Service.
There have been many new additions to the webpage during the past year. Among these additions...
- Graphical HLS (Hurricane Local Statement) page, which graphically displays areas of greatest risk during an approaching tropical system.
- Interactive "Point-and-Click" forecast page, which allows the user to click on a specific location and obtain detailed forecasts in hourly tabular, text, or graphical formats.
- Improved climate information for multiple locations. Users can now pick from 4 stations (Jacksonville, Gainesville, Alma, or St. Simons Island) by just clicking a tab and obtain the latest or past climate data.
- Improved Graphical Forecast page, including marine forecast graphics and a Jacksonville and vicinity temperature zoom.
- Improved layout of the Severe Weather Report Form.
- Added experimental PDA access (still limited to certain types of PDA's).
- Added links to monthly area rainfall maps on the Climate Page.
DEC 2003 - FEB 2004 WEATHER
compiled by Pete Keegan Hydro-Meteorological Technician
and Bob Kerns Hydro-Meteorological Technician
at Jacksonville International
Airport...
| Dec
2003 |
Jan
2004 |
Feb
2004 |
|
| Total
Rainfall |
1.19" |
1.64" |
4.48" |
| Departure
from Normal |
-1.45" |
-2.05" |
+1.33" |
| Wettest
Day |
0.45" (14th) |
1.33" (26th-27th) |
1.08" (6th) |
| Days
of Measurable Rain |
7 |
6 |
14 |
| Average
Temperature |
51.3 |
52.3 |
53.8 |
| Departure
from Normal |
-3.7 |
-0.8 |
-2.0 |
| Highest
Temperature |
77
(10th) |
82
(26th) |
83
(6th) |
| Lowest
Temperature |
24
(21st) |
23
(29th) |
31
(19th) |
| Freeze
Days |
? |
? |
? |
| Heating
Degree Days |
417 |
402 |
329 |
| Departure
from Normal |
+103 |
+28 |
+49 |
| Cooling
Degree Days |
0 |
15 |
11 |
| Departure
from Normal |
-21 |
0 |
-11 |
| Average
Wind Speed |
5.9 |
6.5 |
8.2 |
| Peak
Wind Gust |
40
(17th) |
28
(23rd) |
36
(25th) |
rainfall around the Jacksonville area...
| Dec
2003 |
Jan
2004 |
Feb
2004 |
|
| Beauclerc |
0.36" |
1.33" |
5.01" |
| Big
Talbot SP |
1.14" |
1.44" |
2.93" |
| Cecil
Commerce Center |
- |
1.76" |
3.91" |
| Craig
Field |
0.55" |
1.02" |
4.84" |
| Fort Caroline |
0.79" |
1.45" |
4.58" |
| Jacksonville
Beach |
1.33" |
0.98" |
4.85" |
| Jacksonville
NAS |
0.21" |
1.05" |
3.62" |
| Little
Talbot SP |
1.27" |
0.91" |
4.75" |
| Mayport NS |
0.91" |
0.85" |
4.50" |
| Normandy |
0.81" |
0.89" |
- |
| Oak
Hill |
1.10" |
1.10" |
7.10" |
| S.
Ponte Vedra Beach |
1.33" |
- |
5.69" |
| Southside
TV-4 |
0.44" |
0.74" |
3.44" |
| Westside |
1.12" |
1.76" |
- |
| Whitehouse |
0.91" |
0.91" |
- |
rainfall around Northeast Florida...
| Dec
2003 |
Jan
2004 |
Feb
2004 |
|
| Amelia
Is. Plantation |
1.05" |
1.40" |
4.03" |
| Benton |
1.21" |
0.70" |
5.02" |
| Bunnell |
- |
1.09" |
5.11" |
| Crescent
City |
0.98" |
1.19" |
3.80" |
| Ellaville |
1.64" |
- |
3.52" |
| Federal
Point |
1.64" |
1.20" |
- |
| Fernandina
Beach |
0.62" |
0.37" |
4.65" |
| Gainesville |
0.37" |
1.58" |
5.53" |
| Glen
St. Mary |
0.83" |
1.33" |
4.59" |
| Hastings |
0.62" |
1.05" |
4.88" |
| High
Springs |
1.02" |
1.19" |
5.89" |
| Jasper |
1.85" |
0.88" |
7.08" |
| Lake
City |
1.76" |
2.03" |
6.38" |
| Live Oak |
0.13" |
0.85" |
- |
| Middleburg |
0.28" |
- |
4.34" |
| Ocala |
1.14" |
1.89" |
5.01" |
| Orange
Springs |
1.11" |
1.84" |
- |
| Palatka |
0.64" |
2.09" |
6.14" |
| St. Augustine |
1.80" |
0.62" |
4.06" |
| Starke |
0.49" |
1.29" |
4.87" |
| White
Springs |
1.85" |
1.19" |
- |
rainfall around Southeast Georgia...
| Dec
2003 |
Jan
2004 |
Feb
2004 |
|
| Alma |
1.04" |
- |
5.16" |
| Brunswick |
2.01" |
1.03" |
6.24" |
| Hazlehurst |
1.50" |
3.49" |
5.91" |
| Homerville |
2.34" |
1.94" |
5.18" |
| Nahunta |
3.27" |
1.62" |
- |
| Patterson |
- |
1.72" |
4.30" |
| Pridgen |
2.31" |
2.98" |
5.45" |
| St.
Simons Island |
1.68" |
0.61" |
4.69" |
| Stephen
Foster SP |
1.03" |
3.10" |
4.07" |
| Waycross |
3.22" |
1.44" |
- |
| Willacoochee |
1.22" |
- |
4.50" |
| Woodbine |
1.69" |
1.23" |
6.31" |
YEAR IN REVIEW: 2003
compiled by Pete Keegan Hydro-Meteorological Technician
at Jacksonville International Airport...
| Total
Rainfall |
44.46"
(-7.88") |
| Wettest
Day |
4.36"
(3/1) |
| Average
Temperature |
67.9
(-0.1) |
| Average
Max Temperature |
78.4
(+0.1) |
| Average
Min Temperature |
57.4
(-0.2) |
| Highest
Temperature |
94
(7/9, 7/10) |
| Lowest
Temperature |
19
(1/24) |
| Heating
Degree Days |
1432
(+78) |
| Cooling
Degree Days |
2616
(-11) |
| Average Wind Speed (mph) |
5.7 |
| Peak Wind Gust (mph) |
NW
55 (6/13) |
| Max Wind Speed (mph) |
W
44 (4/25) |
| Thunderstorm
Days |
78 |
| Fog
Days |
221 |
| Rain
Days |
118 |
§
CO-OP CORNER
by Mike McAllister Data Acquisition Program Manager
Cooperative
Observers Honored
Mike Ijames
(left) accepts the 25-year Institutional Award for the Crescent City, FL
station (Crescent City Water Treatment Plant). The award was
presented by Mike McAllister
(right), DAPM, WFO Jacksonville, FL.
Jerry Altman (middle), observer at Fargo, GA was presented with a
75-year Institutional Award for International Paper. The award
was presented by Jim Boone
(left), HMT, and Mike McAllister
(right), DAPM, WFO Jacksonville, FL.
Thomas Yawn
(right),
observer at Homerville 5N, GA,
receives a 15-year Length-of-Service Award. The award was
presented by Jim Boone (HMT,
WFO Jacksonville, FL). Coincidently, Tom and Jim are cousins.
Presentation of the 50-year Institutional
Award for the Atkinson County Cooperative Extension Office in Pearson,
GA and the 10-year Individual Award to Mark
Von Waldner (middle). Also pictured are Jim Boone, HMT, and Mike McAllister, DAPM.
For 2004, the following five awards will be presented:
Presentation of the Helmut E. Landsberg Award
to Mrs.
Ethel Gray on July 26, 1997. The picture shows Mrs. Gray
standing next to Congressman Charles
Bennett, who spoke at the award presentation.
Pictured (from left) are Peachtree City HMT Nate Mayes, Jacksonville Hydrology Focal Point Parks Camp,
Walter Bailey, who has been reading the gages since 1992, and Jacksonville DAPM Mike McAllister.
The National Weather
Service's Cooperative Program presents awards to its observers based on
length-of-service or special circumstances. Institutions receive
an award every 25 years. Individual awards start at 10 years,
then every 5 years thereafter. In 2003, seven awards were
presented in the WFO Jacksonville Cooperative Program Area. They
were:
- Crescent City, FL 25-year Institutional Award and 10-year Individual Award.
Mike Ijames
(left) accepts the 25-year Institutional Award for the Crescent City, FL
station (Crescent City Water Treatment Plant). The award was
presented by Mike McAllister
(right), DAPM, WFO Jacksonville, FL.- Fargo, GA 75-year Institutional Award.
Jerry Altman (middle), observer at Fargo, GA was presented with a
75-year Institutional Award for International Paper. The award
was presented by Jim Boone
(left), HMT, and Mike McAllister
(right), DAPM, WFO Jacksonville, FL.- Homerville 5N, GA 15-year Individual Award.
Thomas Yawn
(right),
observer at Homerville 5N, GA,
receives a 15-year Length-of-Service Award. The award was
presented by Jim Boone (HMT,
WFO Jacksonville, FL). Coincidently, Tom and Jim are cousins.- Live Oak, FL 15-year Individual Award.
- Pearson, GA 50-year Institutional Award and 10-year Individual Award.
Presentation of the 50-year Institutional
Award for the Atkinson County Cooperative Extension Office in Pearson,
GA and the 10-year Individual Award to Mark
Von Waldner (middle). Also pictured are Jim Boone, HMT, and Mike McAllister, DAPM.For 2004, the following five awards will be presented:
- Hastings 4NE, FL 20-year Individual Award.
- Waycross 4NE, GA 15-year Individual Award and 40-year family Length of Service Award
- Federal Point, FL The General Albert J. Myer Award for 65 years of family service. Alan Gray, the Federal Point observer, is continuing a family tradition begun in 1937 by his father.
Presentation of the Helmut E. Landsberg Award
to Mrs.
Ethel Gray on July 26, 1997. The picture shows Mrs. Gray
standing next to Congressman Charles
Bennett, who spoke at the award presentation.A special Certificate of
Appreciation was presented to Mrs.
Judy Johnson of Bell 4WNW, FL,
in January 2004. Mrs. Johnson reluctantly left the cooperative
program due to health reasons.
On December 5th, 2003, the Charlotte River gage
was transferred from the Peachtree City Hydrologic Service Area to Jacksonville's.
Pictured (from left) are Peachtree City HMT Nate Mayes, Jacksonville Hydrology Focal Point Parks Camp,
Walter Bailey, who has been reading the gages since 1992, and Jacksonville DAPM Mike McAllister.
§
Seabreeze
WEBLETTER
EDITOR
Scott E. Carroll
CONTRIBUTING WRITERS
Scott Carroll
Jason Hess
Michael McAllister
Phil Peterson
CLIMATE SUMMARIES
Pete Keegan
Bob Kerns
METEOROLOGIST-IN-CHARGE
Steve Letro