000 AXNT20 KNHC 131144 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT 13 NOV 2004 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 13N10W 6N26W 6N39W 5N50W 8N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF 8N FROM 19W-24W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-13N E OF 34W TO THE PRIME MERIDIAN. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES INTO W ATLC IS SWEEPING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1015 MB LOW OVER NE FLORIDA SW ALONG 25N87W TO 24N93W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 23N96W THEN CONTINUES S TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ AND NW ALONG THE E SIDE OF SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. DYNAMICS/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N79W SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 26N83W. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG 28N80W TO 30N79W THEN WIDENS TO WITHIN 60 NM TO BEYOND 32N76W. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THIS ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE OF THE AREA WITH THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY BECOMING EVEN MORE STATIONARY OVER THE E GULF. THE STRONG HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THE FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR S FLORIDA SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS SE. ELSEWHERE...SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR PREVAILS THUS LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN ASSOCIATED BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. WHILE THIS PATTERN HAS ENDED THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN...A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC. A WEAK EXTENSION OF THE FRONT IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1006 MB LOW JUST E OF GUADELOUPE SW THROUGH THE ISLANDS NEAR 15N61W TO INLAND OVER E VENEZUELA JUST W OF TRINIDAD. THIS IS CONTINUING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. DRY/STABLE AIR IS SPILLING S FROM THE W ATLC COVERING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM OF 15N W OF 70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC REMAINS HIGH AND DRY AS A RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM HISPANIOLA TO JUST E OF BERMUDA AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE E COAST OF UNITED STATES INTO THE FAR W ATLC. MID/UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STABLE CONDITIONS W OF A CENTRAL ATLC STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS S ALONG 32N45W 26N47W THEN SW TO THE 1006 MB LOW E OF GUADELOUPE NEAR 17N59W. MOST ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND W TROPICAL ATLC WHERE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGING NE IS INTERACTING WITH A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM JUST W OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N60W TO NEAR 24N51W. FARTHER E...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N48W NE TO 31N40W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR S OF 17N BETWEEN 36W-51W EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSING ITCZ CONVECTION IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. OVER THE FAR E ATLC...A NEAR STATIONARY MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CUTOFF LOW NEAR 24N25W S INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC TO 6N26W. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE MID/UPPER LOW FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 17W-25W. $$ WALLACE