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| SPECIAL EDITION ***ELECTION AND CAMPAIGN RESEARCH II*** Among the diverse scientific disciplines supported through NSF research grants, political science is one that is yielding particularly timely insights. NSF now supports 130 grants at institutions nationwide to study elections and other issues related to political behavior, processes and institutions. Our special edition tipsheet dated February 27 highlighted three such studies. Below are more examples of research NSF supports that shed light on the American political process. For more information on NSF political science research programs, contact George Chartier (703) 306-1070, gchartie@nsf.gov Contents of this Tipsheet:
IN GOVERNMENT WE TRUST?Although public trust in government has eroded spectacularly since the 1960s, Americans' confidence in their political system has not declined much since 1980, according to Steven J. Rosenstone, professor of political science and principal investigator of the NSF-funded biennial National Election Studies. Drawing on decades of data, Rosenstone notes that 79 percent of the American public in 1964 said they "trust[ed] the government in Washington to do what is right" most of the time or almost always. In 1980, only 26 percent felt as much trust; in 1992, 29 percent; in 1994, 22 percent. The electorate's confidence that "the government is run for the benefit of all people," that the government does not "waste a lot of money we pay in taxes," and that "hardly any [of the people running the government] are crooked" also suffered between the 1960s and the 1980s -but not much, if at all, since then. Media contact: Steven J. Rosenstone at The National Elections Studies, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, (313) 764-5494. A trend chart is available.
VOTE-BY-MAIL VOTED POPULAR AND FAIROregonians overwhelmingly preferred mail-in ballots to pollingplace elections, according to a post-election voter survey conducted by the University of Oregon Research Survey Lab and funded by NSF. More than 76 percent of those surveyed gave vote-by-mail a favorable rating following the January 30 special election in which 65.8 percent of the state's registered voters cast ballots, breaking state and federal records for special elections, says Priscilla Southwell, professor of political science. Findings indicate that voting by mail had no significant impact on the outcome of the Senate race. Neither major party appeared to gain an advantage because the "new" mail voters resembled traditional voters in attitude and how they cast their ballots. Fears of widespread election fraud may be overblown, says Southwell; fewer than one percent of voters surveyed said they felt pressured to vote a certain way. However, the survey showed that, compared to traditional voters, those who voted by mail are more likely to be a member of a minority race, be a single parent, be registered as an independent, identify their work status as "keeping house," be paid by the hour rather than by salary or commission, and say they pay "a great deal of attention" to local politics. They are less likely to identify themselves as "middle of the road." Media contact: Priscilla Southwell, University of Oregon (541) 346-4074.
MAIL SURVEYS PROVE MORE ACCURATE THAN PHONE TO FORECAST ELECTION RESULTSConventional wisdom has preferred telephone surveys over mail surveys to forecast election results, but a new NSF funded study shows mail surveys can be more accurate. Statewide mail surveys conducted by the Columbus Dispatch newspaper since 1980 have forecast Ohio election outcomes with less than half the error of conventional telephone surveys by three other organizations, according to a new study by Ohio State University, the University of Akron and the Dispatch. Researchers found that the mail surveys were more accurate because (1) they solicited information from larger numbers of people who more closely resembled the citizens who turned out to vote on election day, and (2) the format of mail questionnaires more closely matched the formats of voting machines and paper ballots used in actual elections. Mail surveys may also be superior because people experience a greater sense of privacy and anonymity, which encourages candor. Also, mail surveys may elicit more meaningful responses because respondents can complete questionnaires at their own pace and at convenient times, researchers say. Media contact: Jon A. Krosnick, Ohio State University, (614) 292-3496.
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