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For more information on these science news and feature story tips, please contact the public information officer at the end of each item at (703) 292-8070. Editor: Bill Noxon Contents of this News Tip:
FIRST NORTH AMERICAN 'WEATHER TRAIL' IS UNVEILEDMost nature trails emphasize flora and fauna. This week, though,the spotlight is on the wild and varied climate of Colorado's Front Range. A new interpretive trail opens this week at the Mesa Laboratory of the National Science Foundation-supported National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Inspired by a similar trail at the Swiss Meteorological Institute in Gstaad, the Walter Orr Roberts Weather Trail is the first interpretive trail in North America dedicated to weather and climate. The trail is named after the founding director of NCAR and first president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR, NCAR's "parent organization"). The 0.4-mile (0.6-kilometer), wheelchair-accessible loop trail features 11 signs, each focusing on a single weather related phenomenon that may be observed--or whose effects may be evident--from points along the way. The Mesa Lab itself features a number of weather-related exhibits, and is open to the public for self-guided tours from 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m. on weekdays and 9:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. on weekends and holidays. [Cheryl Dybas] NSF CENTER'S STORM PREDICTION SOFTWARE IS A WINNERA computer forecasting system developed by researchers led by Kelvin Droegemeier at the NSF Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms in Norman, Oklahoma, has won first prize in the computer software category of the 1997 Discover Magazine Awards for Technological Innovation. Developed by University of Oklahoma researchers using resources at the NSF-supported Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center, the Advanced Regional Prediction System improves the timeliness and accuracy of severe storm forecasts. More accurate predictions are expected to save lives and reduce private and government property loss. Storm damage costs U.S. businesses $14 billion each year. Using the data available through radar-based sensors, the new program allows computers to speculate on missing variables, then refine the possible scenarios by running complex equations. The software is capable of predicting storms seven hours in advance, with 80 percent accuracy. The Oklahoma team's accomplishments were pitted against an international group of public and private entities. The Discover Magazine awards have become a prestigious honor for innovations in science and technology that affect everyday life. [Cheryl Dybas] CHANGING CLIMATE MAY HAVE MIXED EFFECTSGlobal climate change is likely to have disparate impacts on the developed and less developed nations of the world. A recent modeling study predicts that developed countries--the primary emitters of carbon dioxide--would benefit while underdeveloped countries would suffer, according to researcher Michael Schlesinger of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Schlesinger and colleagues ran two versions of a general circulation model on supercomputers at the NSF-supported National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. Simulating a two-degrees-Centigrade increase in global temperature as a result of doubled atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide they expect to prevail by about the year 2060, the researchers used the models' geographic distribution of temperature and precipitation changes to determine specific annual changes in these factors for 184 countries. In addition to these data, they used economic data on agriculture, forestry, coastal resources, energy and tourism to calculate market impacts of the potential changes. "Clearly, some countries will be big winners and others will be large losers," says Schlesinger. "For example, Canada, the former Soviet Union, and the United States would receive (estimated) annual benefits of $31 billion, $39 billion, and $22 billion, respectively." The countries that would suffer the most from global warming are island nations. "These countries have long coastlines, sensitive tourism industries, and small, undeveloped economies," explains Schlesinger. Of the continents, Europe and North America would benefit, while others, including Australia, would fare poorly. Schlesinger maintains, however, that natural variability in the climate system may be of more importance than changes in temperature and precipitation. "So this is not yet the end of the story," he says. [Cheryl Dybas]
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