October 22, 1998
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contact the public information officer at the end of each item at (703)
292-8070. Editor: Bill Noxon
Contents of this News Tip:
Across the nation, electric power providers, regulators and consumers
are about to enter the "Brave New World" of deregulation.
Under a multidisciplinary grant from the National Science Foundation
(NSF)’s Divisions of Electrical and Communications Systems (ECS) and Social,
Behavioral, and Economic Research (SBER), Cornell University engineers
and economists are working together to explore the possible effects of
competitive markets for electricity generation. Investigator Richard Schuler,
professor of economics and civil and environmental engineering, says, "The
electricity market is unique -- the epitome of a 'just in-time' delivery
system. You cannot build inventory, and if you do not find the right customer
for your product at the right time and price, the potential consequences
are tremendous for both the provider and the consumers."
Using a simulated electricity grid based on the Northeast and laboratory
experiments in market behavior, investigators have developed new web-based
tools to allow them to examine new operating rules for the system. The
researchers -- electrical engineering professor Robert Thomas, experimental
economist William Schulze, resource economist Timothy Mount, senior electrical
engineering investigator Ray Zimmerman and Schuler -- seek to strike a
balance between ideal market mechanisms and traditional utility practices
that will provide inexpensive energy for consumers, while maintaining
system stability and reliability. [Joel Blumenthal]
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The Internet has a reputation as a wild and woolly electronic frontier
where anything goes and no one plays by the rules, because there are no
rules. Yet, underlying patterns of Internet use are driven by well-structured
rules of social and physical interaction that can be modeled mathematically,
and may even point the way to developing more user-friendly Web sites
and search mechanisms, according to NSF-funded researcher Bernardo A.
Huberman, a consulting professor of physics at Stanford University and
a Research Fellow at the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center. Huberman’s research
indicates that while moving through a Web site with a mouse seems random,
the behavior actually can be plotted and predicted, conforming to laws
of physics that were derived in the 1920’s on apparent random movements
of sub-atomic particles.
Huberman discussed many of his findings in a recent presentation given
at NSF headquarters in Arlington, Va.
"I believe the Internet provides us with a phenomenal opportunity to
study how people forage for information and interact with one another," he
said. "And once you have derived these laws, you can turn them around
and start designing Web pages and search engines. You can start answering
the question 'Are there ways to induce behavior so that people will stay
within a site?'" [Peter West]
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Blue jays and touch-sensitive computer monitors have given scientists
insight into how predators decide their next meal -and how those choices
affect genetic variation in prey.
NSF-supported researchers Alan Bond and Alan Kamil from the University
of Nebraska have studied the phenomena of apostatic selection, in which
predators ignore rare varieties of a particular prey species in favor
of more abundant varieties.
Although apostatic selection has been predicted in theory, it has been
notoriously difficult to demonstrate in reality. In order to design their
innovative experiments, Bond and Kamil drew ideas from such disparate
fields as behavioral ecology, operant learning, artificial intelligence
and evolution.
During the experiment, the scientists showed digital images of moths
to real blue jays, which were then awarded with mealworms when they pecked
at any of the moths on the screen. The pecked moths were considered "eaten" and
removed from the population of digital moths. The next day, the population
was regenerated to its initial size, but retained the relative numbers
of the surviving prey from the day before. In these experiments, as in
nature, predation by the jays affected the prey population over time.
Not only did the simulations show that apostatic selection works to
balance different varieties in a prey species, but it could also give
an advantage to newly emerging varieties of the prey. [Greg Lester]
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