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Black Sea Grain Exports: Will They Be Moderate or Large? By William Liefert, Olga Liefert, Ralph Seeley, and Ed Allen Outlook Report No. (WRS040502) 15 pp, October 2004 This report examines the prospects for grain exports by the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) and the Newly Independent States (NIS) that export through the Black Sea, the largest being Russia and Ukraine. If productivity growth in the region is high, annual grain exports by Black Sea countries could rise to 30-40 million tons. Such high exports would strongly affect the world grain market, since total annual world grain exports during 2000-03 averaged 237 million metric tons. This report is the second in a two-part series on the integration of CEE and NIS countries into global commodity markets. Keywords: Russia, Ukraine, Balkan countries, transition economies, grain, wheat, barley, agricultural trade, ERS, USDA In this report ... Chapters are in Adobe Acrobat PDF format. If you are having trouble printing the PDF document check Adobe's website for troubleshooting advice, or e-mail us for a free copy of the report. Entire Report, 99 kb. web administration: webadmin@ers.usda.gov page updated: October 13, 2004

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