SPC AC 181623
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1123 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2004
   
   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
   ELD 25 WNW LIT 30 SSE CGI 35 ENE OWB 45 S SDF RMG 25 E ANB 15 S 0A8
   35 NW LUL 35 SE MLU 30 WSW ELD.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE 63S PUW 50 NNE
   BOI IDA 15 NNW OGD ELY LAS 35 SE LGB.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT GGG HRO 20
   NNW CMI 45 ESE DTW 15 SSW ISP.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE WRN STATES ON
   TUESDAY AS IMPULSES CONTINUE TO DROP SWD FROM THE GULF OF AK. 
   DOWNSTREAM...MAINLY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE WITH SRN STREAM
   JETLETS MIGRATING FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL PACIFIC EWD INTO THE SRN
   STATES.  AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY FROM THE
   OH VLY WWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.  A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE FROM OK INTO
   AR DURING TUESDAY. 
   
   ...MID-SOUTH...
   ABSENCE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WITHIN ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME
   MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING CONVECTIVE FORECAST ON TUESDAY.  SEVERAL
   TSTM CLUSTERS WILL EVOLVE FROM TODAY'S ACTIVITY AND WILL BE ONGOING
   AT THE BEGINNING OF THE DAY 2 PERIOD.  THE STRONGEST TSTMS SHOULD
   EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AR-LA-MS AREA...FEEDING OFF OF THE
   INSTABILITY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ADVECTING EWD FROM TX.
   THESE TSTMS SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH DURING THE
   DAY...THOUGH EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN OWING TO
   DECREASING H85 WINDS AND STORMS MOVING FARTHER FROM THE INSTABILITY
   AXIS.  
   
   MEANWHILE...AIR MASS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF
   EARLY DAY CONVECTION...ALONG THE DRYLINE AND FRONT FROM SRN AR NEWD
   INTO THE LWR OH VLY.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE VEERED AND
   WEAKENED BY THEN AND HEATING WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPETUS FOR
   INITIATING TSTMS.  THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...
   VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE FOR
   SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
   
   THE LATE AFTERNOON STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY TRANSITION INTO A MCS AND
   MOVE ESEWD.  STRONGER TSTMS SHOULD BACKBUILD WSWWD INTO SRN AR AND
   NRN MS WITHIN STRONGER INSTABILITY AND HAIL/WIND THREATS WILL
   CONTINUE.  FARTHER EAST...AIR MASS MAY BE TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT
   SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS ERN KY/MID-ERN TN.
   
   ..RACY.. 10/18/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z