000
FXUS62 KCHS 130154
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
852 PM EST FRI NOV 12 2004

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE 
IS JUST ABOUT THRU THE CWA...WITH STILL SOME SHRA DEVELOPING OVER 
COASTAL CHS COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT ATLC WATERS. COLD FRONT STILL 
ACROSS W GA TO EXTREME NW SC...WITH WEAK LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT 
NEAR MCN. VERY LITTLE TEMP/DEWPT SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA...WITH PATCHY 
FOG ALREADY DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY IN GA. WITH FOG STABILITY 
INDEX///CROSS-OVER TECHNIQUE...GUIDANCE AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
FOG FORMATION /SUCH AS WEAK CONVERGENCE...LIGHT WINDS...ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC///SOME DRYING ALOFT AND RECENT RAINS/...WILL 
GO AHEAD AND ADD PATCHY DENSE FOG TO THE FCST.

WILL ALSO LOWER RAIN CHC DOWN TO SLGT CHC SINCE FRONT STILL NOT THRU 
THE AREA...WITH ACTIVITY ENDING LATE AS FRONT MOVES INTO THE ATLC. 

TEMPS LOOK GOOD AND NOTHING MORE THAN SOME TWEAKS...MAINLY FOR 
INITIAL CONDITIONS. 

&&

.MARINE...S TO SW WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE 
AREA THIS EVE...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 5 FT OR LESS /OCCASIONALLY NEAR 
6 FT ON THE OUTER GA WATERS/. WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT 
WILL SEE WINDS VEER TO NWLY BY MORNING. CAA JUST ABOUT STARTING 
ACROSS THE SC WATERS BY 09-12Z SAT...SO WILL GO AHEAD AND RAISE SCA 
FOR THE SC ATLC WATERS...BUT HOLD OFF ON CHS HARBOR AND THE GA 
WATERS WITHIN 20 NM. WILL MAINTAIN GALE WARNING FOR EXPECTED GALE 
FORCE WINDS ON THE OUTER GA WATERS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN. WILL 
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SEAS ALL AREAS...AND WITH 
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING LATE WILL ADD FOG TO CHS HARBOR AND NEAR 
THE COAST OF SC AND GA.

WILL LOWER SHRA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO SLGT CHC...EXCEPT FOR CHC 
EARLY ON THE SC WATERS BASED ON RECENT RADAR.
 
&&

.TIDES...WATER LEVELS AT CHARLESTON AND FT. PULASKI CLOSE TO 
PREDICTED VALUES THIS EVE...AND BOTH FCST TO BE APPROACHING SHALLOW 
COASTAL FLOODING CRITERIA WITH MORNING HIGH TIDE. FLOW WILL BE 
OFFSHORE...BUT INCREASING SPEEDS...SO THEY DO BEAR WATCHING FOR THE 
EARLY MORNING FCST PACKAGE. 

&&

.AVIATION...MID-HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA AS 
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR INVADES FROM THE WEST. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LVL 
MOISTURE...LIGHT BNDRY LYR WINDS AND DRIER AIR ALOFT...EXPECT PATCHY 
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE...FOG STABILITY INDICES 
AND THE CROSSOVER TECHNIQUE. WILL WATCH CLOSELY AS IFR/LIFR VSBYS 
ALREADY OCCURRING IN SOME LOCALES AROUND THE AREA. CLD FRONT SHOULD 
PUSH THROUGH BY 13/08Z WITH WINDS VEERING TO N BY SUNRISE. 
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME GUSTS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH 
CAA BUT HAVE HELD OFF FOR NOW. NEXT CREW CAN INCLUDE IF WARRANTED. 
WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE TOMORROW LOW CIGS SHOULD REMAIN 
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED LATE IN THE 
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY SATURDAY SCZ045.
MARINE...SCA AMZ350-352.
         GALE WARNING AMZ374.

&&

$$

33/RB