000 FXUS62 KTAE 020149 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 849 PM EST MON NOV 1 2004 .DISCUSSION...DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS FL, GA AND AL. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING NEAR EL PASO, TX. ENOUGH MOISTURE FUNNELED IN OFF THE GULF TODAY TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. AREA RADARS SHOW THE LAST OF THESE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER SE AL. UPSTREAM, WE SEE A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY E ACROSS LA, AR AND SRN MO. A SQUALL LINE PRECEDES THE FRONT. LOOKING AT THE 18Z RUNS OF THE ETA AND GFS, WE SEE THAT THERE IS NOW BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE TWO WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, AT LEAST BY THE TIME IT GETS THIS FAR E. THE ETA HAS ESSENTIALLY COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH REGARDS TO THIS TIMING, THU MORNING. HOWEVER, THE GFS REMAINS MORE BULLISH WITH LIFT AND QPF. AT THE VERY LEAST, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL FINALLY GET A NICE SHOT OF COOL AUTUMN AIR LATER IN THE WEEK TO SCOUR OUT ALL OF THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY. ALBANY, GA SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR NOV 1 OF 87 DEGREES. THE OLD RECORD WAS 86 SET IN 1979. PANAMA CITY TIED THEIR RECORD OF 85 DEGREES, SET PREVIOUSLY IN 1974. && .UPDATE...FOR TONIGHT, REMOVED MENTION OF EVENING SHOWERS, BUT LEFT THE SILENT 10 POP IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES LOOKED ON TRACK THROUGH 00Z...BUT WE MADE A MINOR UPWARD ADJUSTMENT LOOKING AT THE NEW MAV. THERE ARE STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND ACROSS OUR ERN ZONES, AND THIS MAY INHIBIT DENSE FOG FORMATION. WITH LEAVE PATCHY WORDING ALONE FOR NOW. FINALLY, WILL RECOMMEND TO THE MID SHIFT TO FAVOR THE MAV POPS, WHICH WOULD MEAN INCREASING POPS FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. && .MARINE...EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS OUR WRN LEG THAN TO THE E. WINDS ARE ALREADY SUSTAINED NEAR 15 KT. THE MAJORITY OF MODELS SHOW WINDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, SO WILL PUT UP THE EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR OUR WRN LEG. THIS WILL BLEND BETTER WITH THE SCA JUST TO OUR W. AFTER A BRIEF LULL, MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY...THEN SHIFT TO NW AFTER FROPA. GRADIENT TIGHTENS W/ INCREASING OFFSHORE WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING SCA FRIDAY THRU EARLY SATURDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRI INTO THIS WEEKEND. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 145 PM EST MON NOV 1 2004 SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... CUTOFF UPPER LOW & ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ADVANCES SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW ACCELERATES TO THE NE THRU THE OH VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL SERVE TO BREAK DOWN THE STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE RELUCTANT TO GIVE WAY UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE LONG AWAITED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE/ROBUST W/ THE COLD FRONT THAN THE SLOWER/LESS ROBUST ETA...AND IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE. THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE CONTINUES TO MOISTEN & BECOME MORE UNSTABLE W/ TIME. ALSO...THE GFS DEPICTS SOME LIFT OVER WRN ZONES DURING THE 24 TO 48 HR TIME FRAME. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR HIGHER POPS VERSUS THE ETA...W/ A NW-SE POP GRADIENT. LIGHT WINDS & MOIST BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...IT WILL CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY WARM & HUMID THRU WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS FOR THURSDAY W/ THE FROPA. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... COLD FRONT PER GFS PUSHES INTO SRN FL FRIDAY AS CENTER OF STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER SRN PLAINS RIDGES INTO THE GULF COAST STATES THIS WEEKEND. AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TLH 64 85 63 84/ 10 10 10 20 PFN 70 84 70 82/ 10 20 20 30 DHN 66 84 66 82/ 10 20 30 40 ABY 65 85 64 84/ 10 10 20 30 VLD 64 85 63 85/ 10 10 10 20 CTY 64 86 63 86/ 10 10 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. GA...NONE. FL...NONE. && $$ CURRENT DISCUSSION...WOOL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MAJ