Table 31.
Comparison of Results for Reducing Carbon Emissions to 7 Percent Below 1990 Levels
With Annex I Trading, Sinks, and Offsets
| > Projection |
MIT |
EPRIa |
CRA |
DRI Case 2 |
EIAb |
PNNL |
|
1990+9% |
1990+14% |
||||||
2010 |
|||||||
Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton) |
175 | 114 | 109 | 110 | 163 | 129 | 100 |
| Change in
Actual Gross Domestic Product From Reference Projection |
|||||||
| Percent | -1.5 | -0.5 | -1.3 | -1.1 | -2.0 | -1.7 | NA |
| Billion 1996 Dollars | NA | -56 | -133 | -118 | -207 | -177 | NA |
| Loss in
Potential Gross Domestic Product Relative to Reference Projection (Billion 1996 Dollars) |
NA | 17 | 15 | 16 | 27 to 36 | 17 to 29 | 38 |
| Irreducible Losses (Billion 1996 Dollars) | NA | 43 | 46 | 32 | 53 to 62 | 47 to 59 | 55 |
| Expenditures
on Annex I Trading (Billion 1996 Dollars) |
NA | -26 | -31 | -16 | -26 | -30 | -17 |
| Purchased
Emissions Credits (Million Metric Tons)c |
NA | 229 | 288 | 147 | 161 | 229 | 171 |
| Change in Carbon Intensity (Percent) | NA | -15.7 | -15.8 | -15.8 | -15.8 | -12.9 | NA |
| Change in Fossil Fuel Consumption (Percent) | NA | -13.2 | -14.6 | -11.7 | -12.7 | -10.3 | -16.8 |
2020 |
|||||||
| Carbon Price (1996 Dollars per Metric Ton) | 119 | 188 | 175 | 131 | 141 | 123 | 142 |
| Change in
Actual Gross Domestic Product From Reference Projection |
|||||||
| Percent | -1.5 | -0.96 | -1.7 | -0.3 | -0.6 | -0.5 | NA |
| Billion 1996 Dollars | NA | -120 | -226 | -41 | -76 | -63 | NA |
| Loss in
Potential Gross Domestic Product Relative to Reference Projection (Billion 1996 Dollars) |
NA | 44 | 42 | 31 | 33 to 43 | 24 to 35 | 71 |
| Irreducible Losses (Billion 1996 Dollars) | NA | 73 | 82 | 46 | 56 to 66 | 52 to 63 | 102 |
| Expenditures
on Annex I Trading (Billion 1996 Dollars) |
NA | -33 | -40 | -15 | -23 | -28 | -31 |
| Purchased
Emissions Credits (Million Metric Tons)c |
NA | 177 | 228 | 111 | 161 | 229 | 219 |
| Change in Carbon Intensity (Percent) | NA | -22.8 | -18.8 | -23.5 | -22.2 | -20.1 | NA |
| Change in Fossil Fuel Consumption (Percent) | NA | -18.7 | -23.3 | -19.3 | -16.2 | -14.2 | -20.6 |
|
aEPRI allows some contribution from the CDM. bThe 1990+9% and 1990+14% cases are shown for comparison only, because the carbon emissions levels projected in these cases are near those of the other studies shown. cFor EIA and EPRI, purchased carbon emissions credits equal the difference between the emissions target and 1,306 million metric tons (3 percent below the 1990 carbon emissions level). NA = not available. Sources: EIA: National Energy Modeling System, runs FD09ABV.D080398B and FD14ABV.D080398B. CRA: Paul M. Bernstein, Charles River Associates, e-mail communications, August 24, 1998. EPRI: E-mail provided by R. Richels of EPRI on July 6, 1998. DRI: Standard and Poors DRI, The Impact of Meeting the Kyoto Protocol on Energy Markets and the Economy (July 1998). MIT: Facsimile dated July 10, 1998, from Prof. Henry Jacoby, MIT, Cambridge Massachusetts. PNNL: Ronald Sands, PNNL, e-mail communication, August 26, 1998. |
|||||||