Table 33.  Comparison of Carbon Emissions Results for EIA and Five-Lab Study Analyses
(Million Metric Tons)

Projection

1990

1996

2010

Five-Lab Study

EIA

Business as Usual

50 HE/LC

Reference

1990+24%

1990+9%

1990+9%
High Technology

Carbon Emissions by Sectora

               

 Buildings

457 516 571 509 615 545 424 462
 Industrial 454 476 548 455 559 519 462 437
 Transportation 434 471 616 513 617 605 576 562
   Total 1,346 1,463 1,735 1,340 1,791 1,668 1,462 1,461
 Electricity Generationb 477 517 636 500
(-136)c 		657 567 409 446
Change From Reference Emissions — — — 395 — 127 342 342
Carbon Price
(1996 Dollars per Metric Ton) 		— — — 50 — 67 163 121
  aCarbon emissions in each sector include a share of the carbon emitted from electricity generation.
  bIn the EIA cases, carbon emissions reduced from electricity generation are accounted for in the end-use sectors.
  cFor the 50 HE/LC case, 136 million metric tons saved in electricity generation must be subtracted from the emissions in the end-use sectors, which do not incorporate the saved emissions for generation.
  — = not applicable.
  Sources: Five-Lab Study—Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, Scenarios of U.S. Carbon Reductions: Potential Impacts of Energy-Efficient and Low Carbon Technologies by 2010 and Beyond (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and Argonne National Laboratory, September 1997), Table 1.2. EIA—National Energy Modeling System, runs KYBASE.D080398A, FD24ABV.D080398B, FD09ABV.D080398B, and HITECH09.D080498B.