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Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS) |
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 Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Home Page
-Current water resources forecasting techniques make
limited use of growing skill in short- to long-range weather and climate
forecasts. The National Weather Service's planned Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Services (AHPS) will take advantage of these new skills.
Once implemented, AHPS will produce hydrologic forecasts with lead
times of a few days to several months (see accompanying graphic).
It will provide river forecasts that not only account for precipitation
already on the ground but that also will probabilistically account
for estimates of future precipitation. This coupled prediction service
will greatly improve the Nation's capability to take timely and effective
actions that will significantly mitigate the impact of major floods
and droughts. The system will also provide better overall information
for use in managing competing water demands for irrigation, fisheries,
hydropower and other purposes. |
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Ensemble
Streamflow Prediction
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The ESP system is that portion of the NWSRFS which provides the capability
of making long-range probabilistic forecasts of streamflow and streamflow
related variables. ESP uses conceptual hydrologic/hydraulic models
to forecast future streamflow using the current soil moisture, river,
and reservoir conditions with historical meteorological data. The
ESP procedure assumes that meteorological events that occurred in
the past are representative of events that may occur in the future.
Each year of historical meteorological data is assumed to be a possible
representation of the future and is used to simulate a streamflow
trace. The simulated streamflow traces can be scanned for maximum
flow, minimum flow, volume of flow, reservoir stage, etc., for any
period in the future. ESP produces a probabilistic forecast for each
streamflow variable and period of interest. |
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