Project Number: 6218-11130-002-00
Project Type: Appropriated

Start Date: Oct 01, 2003
End Date: Mar 31, 2005

Objective:
Evaluate the applicability and limitations of seasonal climate forecasts for use by farmers, ranchers, and agribusiness, and adapt the forecasts for agricultural uses. Integrate seasonal forecasts, other information on extended climate departures from normal and extreme events, corresponding agricultural responses, and associated uncertainties into planning and management decision aids readily useable by producers. The research is conducted in collaboration with NOAA forecast developers.

Approach:
Seasonal climate forecasts are evaluated in terms of the needs of agricultural users and the nature of the information provided by the forecasts. The regional forecasts are reduced to scales more representative of farms and ranches by relating historical data representing regional climate to corresponding farm-scale climate. Forecast air temperature and precipitation provide input to water budget and forage/crop models, which in turn provide water availability and crop/forage productivity as the basis for the selection of land use options and management practices. Uncertainties associated with forecasts and corresponding changes in production and resource utilization are incorporated into the output of these planning tools. Impacts of extended climate departures from normal on agricultural production and soil and water conservation are based on analysis of over 100 years of climate data, land use and agricultural statistics, historical surface runoff data, and other ARS watershed data.