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25 October 2004

New U.S. Citizens Could Play Deciding Role in 2004 Elections

More than 2 million have registered to vote since 2000 balloting

By Stephen Kaufman
Washington File Staff Writer

Washington -- With the media predicting that the results of the 2004 presidential elections will be just as close as, if not closer than, those in the 2000 race, U.S. Census data is documenting the growing importance of a previously overlooked constituency: newly naturalized American citizens.

According to Eliseo Medina, executive vice president of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), there are an estimated 2 million adults who have become U.S. citizens and have registered to vote since the 2000 elections. These new voters will have a potential impact on the final outcome of the November 2 elections, he said.

Speaking October 20 at the National Press Club, Medina said many of these "immigrant voters" live in closely contested states like Florida, Arizona, New Mexico, and Nevada, and that their preferences for either George Bush or John Kerry have not been documented in the national polls of likely voters.

"These are new voters that are not being polled, obviously. Some of them are infrequent voters, so they are not being polled either. So this is a wildcard for this election," Medina said, noting at the same time that, "We've seen their enthusiasm [and] their hunger to participate in the civic life of their adopted country."

Using U.S. Census data from the 1996 and 2000 election years, Rob Paral, a research fellow at the American Immigration Law Foundation, found that 10.7 million adults became U.S. citizens during that period. Of that figure, 6.2 million registered to vote -- accounting for more than half of the net growth in persons registered to vote between 1996 and 2000. The data also showed that 5.4 million of those registered actually voted.

Paral's full report can be found online at http://www.ailf.org/ipc/ipf102004.asp.

Comparing the registration and voting figures with those of native-born American citizens, he concluded that although a smaller percentage of new citizens register to vote, those who have done so are actually more likely to vote on election day than their native counterparts.

"If you're trying to move a campaign [and] register people, what you're seeing is that you actually get a little more ‘bang for your buck' when you register an immigrant than if you register a native born person. You're more likely to get somebody who actually walks into the voting booth," Paral said.

He said his report showed a surge in naturalization in the 1990's, with a concurrent surge in voter registration and political participation. The growth is significant, he said, because it shows a large bloc of voters playing a growing role in American elections.

"If I'm an elected official," said Paral, "I probably know my old voters...I know what their interests are. [So,] I'm worried about the new players stepping onto the field."

Some immigrant communities, such as Asian and Pacific Islander Americans (APIAs), are becoming increasingly vested in the political system of their new country and wish to demonstrate their growing influence to both the politicians and their neighbors.

"We do care. We decide, and we vote. We will show the nation that we are a powerful and viable voting constituency -- one to be reckoned with," said Janelle Hu, the national coordinator for Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote (APIAVote) 2004.

Hu said that in the 2000 elections, 83 percent of registered APIAs voted, and more than 500,000 more have registered since then. According to a recent poll by APIAVote, one third of the community's 2004 voters will be recent immigrants voting for the first time, she said. Besides concerns over U.S. immigration law, APIA voters generally share the concerns of poorer Americans, such as employment, health care and education. Also, "Many APIAs are in poverty situations and still face language barriers, and recent hate crimes have increased in the South Asian community," she said.

Likewise, Latino voters are primarily concerned with "bread and butter issues," such as how they will support their families and how to help their children to have better opportunities for the future, according to Clarissa Martinez de Castro, director of state and local policy at the National Council of La Raza.

But, she said, immigration is also a top concern, since many Latinos view it as a civil rights issue. "If you notice, the way that immigration is talked about is often code for how Latinos are viewed, and how they are respected or not, as well as their communities," she said.

According to Rob Paral, socio-economic reasons account for why a relatively small number of new immigrants register to vote, as compared with native born citizens.

"Registration and voting in America is tied to things like home ownership, income levels, socio-economic status, [and] higher occupational levels. All of those things are barriers that Asian-Pacific Islanders, Latinos, African-Americans, [and] other groups confront. It suppresses and affects voting participation," he said.

But SEIU's Eliseo Medina said politicians and political parties should take note that his organization plans to work hard to register new voters and facilitate their access to the polls not only for November 2 but well into the future in order to create "a powerful constituency, one that cannot be taken for granted."

"New citizens are an untapped political power and it would serve any party and any politician well to take heed of this fact," Medina said.

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)