Excerpt: Global Trends 2015 -- Latin America

(Intelligence report presents overview of regional trends, challenges)
(980)

The National Intelligence Council, an arm of the U.S. intelligence
community, released a comprehensive report December 18 on global
forces that may cause political and economic upheaval over the next
several years. The report, "Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the
Future With Nongovernment Experts," is available in its entirety on
the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) web site at
http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/index.html

Following is an excerpt from the report, offering a security overview
of Latin America:

(begin excerpt)

Latin America

Regional Trends

By 2015, many Latin American countries will enjoy greater prosperity
as a result of expanding hemispheric and global economic links, the
information revolution, and lowered birthrates. Progress in building
democratic institutions will reinforce reform and promote prosperity
by enhancing investor confidence. Brazil and Mexico will be
increasingly confident and capable actors that will seek a greater
voice in hemispheric affairs. But the region will remain vulnerable to
financial crises because of its dependence on external finance and the
continuing role of single commodities in most economies. The weakest
countries in the region, especially in the Andean region, will fall
further behind. Reversals of democracy in some countries will be
spurred by a failure to deal effectively with popular demands, crime,
corruption, drug trafficking, and insurgencies.

Latin America -- especially Venezuela, Mexico, and Brazil -- will
become an increasingly important oil producer by 2015 and an important
component of the emerging Atlantic Basin energy system. Its proven oil
reserves are second only to those located in the Middle East.

Globalization Gains and Limits

Continued trade and investment liberalization and the expansion of
free trade agreements within and outside of Latin America will be a
significant catalyst of growth. Regional trade integration through
organizations such as MERCOSUR and the likely conclusion of a Free
Trade Area of the Americas will both boost employment and provide the
political context for governments to sustain economic reforms even
against opposing entrenched interest groups.

Latin America's Internet market is poised to grow exponentially,
stimulating commerce, foreign investment, new jobs, and corporate
efficiency. Although Internet business opportunities will promote the
growth of firms throughout the region, Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico
are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries.

Shifting Demographics

Latin America's demographics will shift markedly-to the distinct
advantage of some countries-helping to ease social strains and
underpin higher economic growth. During the next 15 years, most
countries will experience a substantial slowdown in the number of new
jobseekers, which will help reduce unemployment and boost wages. But
not all countries will enjoy these shifts; Bolivia, Ecuador,
Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Paraguay will still face rapidly
increasing populations in need of work.

Democratization Progress and Setbacks

By 2015, key countries will have made some headway in building
sturdier and more capable democratic institutions. Democratic
institutions in Mexico, Argentina, Chile, and Brazil appear poised for
continued incremental consolidation. In other countries, crime, public
corruption, the spread of poverty, and the failure of governments to
redress worsening income inequality will provide fertile ground for
populist and authoritarian politicians. Soaring crime rates will
contribute to vigilantism and extrajudicial killings by the police.
Burgeoning criminal activity -- including money laundering, alien
smuggling, and narcotrafficking -- could overwhelm some Caribbean
countries. Democratization in Cuba will depend upon how and when Fidel
Castro passes from the scene.

Growing Regional Gaps

By 2015, the gap between the more prosperous and democratic states of
Latin America and the others will widen. Countries that are unable or
unwilling to undertake reforms will experience slow growth at best.
Several will struggle intermittently with serious domestic political
and economic problems such as crime, corruption, and dependence on
single commodities such as oil. Countries with high crime and
widespread corruption will lack the political consensus to advance
economic reforms and will face lower growth prospects. Although
poverty and inequality will remain endemic throughout the region,
high-fertility countries will face higher rates of poverty and
unemployment.

The Andean countries -- Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, and Peru -- are
headed for greater challenges of differing nature and origin.
Competition for scarce resources, demographic pressures, and a lack of
employment opportunities probably will cause workers' anger to mount
and fuel more aggressive tactics in the future. Fatigue with economic
hardship and deep popular cynicism about political institutions,
particularly traditional parties, could lead to instability in
Venezuela, Peru and Ecuador. Resolution of the long-running guerrilla
war is key to Colombia's future prospects. The Cuban economy under a
Castro Government will fall further behind most of the Latin American
countries that embrace globalization and adopt free market practices.

Rising Migration

Pressures for legal and illegal migration to the United States and
regionally will rise during the next 15 years. Demographic factors,
political instability, personal insecurity, poverty, wage
differentials, the growth of alien-smuggling networks, and wider
family ties will propel more Latin American workers to enter the
United States. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua will
become even greater sources of illegal migrants. In Mexico, declining
population growth and strong economic prospects will gradually
diminish pressures to seek work in the United States, but disparities
in living standards, U.S. demand for labor, and family ties will
remain strong pull factors. Significant political instability during a
transition process in Cuba could lead to mass migration.

The growth of Central American and Mexican alien-smuggling networks
will exacerbate problems along the U.S. border.

Illegal migration within the region will become a more contentious
issue between Latin American governments. Argentina and Venezuela
already have millions of undocumented workers from neighboring
countries, and resentment of illegal workers could increase. Although
most Haitian migrants will head for the United States, Haiti's
Caribbean neighbors will also experience further strains.

(end excerpt)

(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S.
Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)