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Social, Behavioral, and Economic SciencesSocial and  Economic SciencesNational Science Foundation

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Fiscal Year 2003 SES Nuggets

Cross-Directorate Directorate Activities

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Decision, Risk & Management Science

 

 

Emotional Attachment and the Transistion to Elementary School

9973396
Zeynep Biringen
Colorado State University
1397

This POWRE grant assessed emotional availability of mothers toward their children (maternal sensitivity, structuring, nonintrusiveness, and nonhostility) as well as emotional availability of children toward their mothers (responsiveness to mother and involvement of mother in interaction) in the spring/summer months before kindergarten. During the kindergarten transition as well as throughout the kindergarten year, the researcher observed children’s interactions with peers and asked teachers to rate the children. She also conducted standardized tests on all children. Children in emotionally available relationships were less likely to display aggression, disruptiveness, distress, or to be victimized by another’s aggression, and more likely to engage in positive behaviors. Interestingly, emotional availability also predicted children’s quality of attention in the classroom during teacher-directed activities and some aspects of learning on standardized tests.

Surprising, for many parents and educators (featured in many Colorado papers during this year’s transition to kindergarten) is the finding that 20-30% of mother-child relationships in this normal, unselected sample were in the “less emotionally available range” and their children were struggling with social/emotional issues in kindergarten. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that supporting emotional availability in family relationships can be an integral part of children’s “kindergarten readiness”, because at least 20-30% of normal families display qualities that compromise their children’s development but are unlikely to be aware of this situation.



REU Site: Science and Society

0097731
Robert Frodeman
University of Colorado at Boulder
1397

How can we make scientific knowledge more relevant to society? What are the responsibilities of scientists to democratic debate? How can we discern relevant knowledge amid contemporary “information overload”? These are some of the questions the Global Climate Change and Society (GCCS) summer REU addresses. By using the climate change issue as a case study, the program questions what forms of knowledge are valued in the climate change debate, how knowledge must be structured in order to remain credible and legitimate, and whether the social sciences and the humanities can play an important role in addressing the issue. Student interns are encouraged to tackle these questions through an interdisciplinary learning environment where notable guest speakers contribute to the dialogue of the classroom and where this learning is translated and applied through the practical experience of the related summer internships. Through this program, a new generation of scientists and science philosophers are learning from experts in the field and from each other.



REU -- Spanish Language Retention among Mexican Americans

0139654
Rogelio Saenz
Texas A&M Research Foundation
1397

Why do some Mexican Americans retain Spanish while others lose their native language? In a study conducted as part of the Research Experience for Undergraduates Program funded by the National Science Foundation, Geneva Villarreal, a student from West Texas A&M University, sought to identify factors that are associated with Spanish language retention among Mexican Americans. Using data from the 1990 Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), she found that Mexican Americans who are more likely to speak Spanish are persons 35 and older, those with lower levels of education, those who are born in the United States, those whose parents are not intermarried, those living in areas with larger Mexican-origin populations, and those residing in the southwestern region of the country. Ms. Villarreal presented her paper titled, “Correlates of Spanish Language Maintenance: The Case of Mexican Americans,” at the annual meeting of the Southwestern Social Science Association. Ms. Villlarreal was one of 10 students who participated in this REU Site, an NSF program which contributes to the Foundation's continuing efforts to attract talented students into careers in science through active undergraduate research experiences.



Environmental Policy and Commercial Fishing

9973561
Susan Bratton
Whitworth College
1397

In this POWRE award, Susan Bratton of Baylor University interviewed commercial fishermen and women regarding their perceptions of fisheries studies and scientists; her results reveal a disconnect between scientists and fishermen and women. Of those interviewed in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, only 16% unequivocally believed fisheries studies make accurate predictions, while only 25% thought scientists had positive attitudes towards fishers. Interviews of commercial fishermen and women found very few recognized Sea Grant, and a majority were critical of the data gathered by the National Marine Fisheries Service.

Fishers in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska thought the three most important ethical qualities for scientists were experience in commercial fishing, knowledge of fisheries, and lack of bias. Fishers who valued scientific skills over scientific community involvement were more likely to accept scientific studies as accurate. The results suggest increased community contact by scientists and increased participation of fishers in scientific studies could potentially improve acceptance of fisheries data.



Auctions for Multiple Items

9731025
Lawrence Ausubel
University of Maryland College Park
1320

0112906
Lawrence Ausubel
University of Maryland College Park
1320

In recent years, auction theory has been asked to provide guidance to policymakers in several important areas, including spectrum auctions, electricity auctions, and Treasury auctions. Unfortunately, the standard theory had largely focused on auctions of a single object, and so had little to rigorously say about the most empirically relevant auction problems. Recent research by economists has begun to expand the boundaries of auction theory and analysis so as to encompass multiple-item auctions.

This award funded research that analyzed the theoretical properties of existing multiple-item auction formats, proposed new efficient auction formats for multiple items, designed new applications for multiple-item auctions, and empirically evaluated recent applications of auctions for spectrum and electricity. In particular, they have developed the properties of package bidding, a new, efficient ascending auction for heterogeneous commodities; and they have extended the analysis of auctions for heterogeneous commodities in environments with interdependent values.



Anonymous Markets and Coethnic Ties in International Trade

9709237
Alessandra Casella
National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
1320

The investigators in this project have studied the behavior of overseas Chinese and other ethnic groups living outside their countries of origin and how these groups create formal or informal "societies" to which coethnic business people from both the host countries and the mother country have access. The main purpose of these societies is to provide information about business opportunities and business contracts. The operation and economic importance of coethnic societies has been especially well documented for the special case of trade between countries hosting recent immigrants and those immigrants' countries of origin. This research project has built a general equilibrium model of trade where anonymous markets and networks of personal contacts interact and has tested the empirical implications that can be drawn from the model.

The results indicate that business and social networks may help overcome informal barriers to international trade by providing information about trading opportunities and by providing trust in a weak international legal environment. These networks also are a means of technology transfer, especially to firms operating in less developed countries. In general, these networks are highly beneficial. However, the investigators report circumstances in which the existence of networks may harm entrepreneurs who are not linked or do not belong to the network. These networks can also cause detrimental trade diversion when they link countries that would otherwise not be natural trading partners.



Time Inconsistency and Self Control

9709485
Matthew Rabin
University of California-Berkeley
1320

0078796
Edward ODonoghue
Cornell University - Endowed
1320

This work has studied the behavioral and welfare implication of self-control problems. Whereas the standard economic model assumes that preferences are time-consistent, evidence suggests that people have preferences biased toward the present time. The investigator has developed both formal models and specific numerical examples to analyze the scope of problems such as procrastination and addiction. A major finding of this research is how important is people’s anticipation of future self-control problems, and how costly these self-control problems may be. For instance, in the case of procrastinating a task, such as preparing for retirement or quitting smoking, over optimism about future ability to self-control can cause a person to severely hurt himself or herself. Furthermore, people with self-control problems tend to over consume addictive products, but this behavior is affected by awareness of a self-control problems. Because such awareness makes people pessimistic about their ability to resist future temptations, and hence feel they might as well get addicted now, this can exacerbate over consumption.

Although the rational-choice model has yielded an array of insights across a broad range of human activities, research from psychology suggests that it is inaccurate in some systematic and important ways. The investigators have continued their agenda of integrating psychologically more realistic assumptions about human behavior into formal economic models of intertemporal choice. This research will help economists to study topics such as addiction, work habits, and retirement planning in a more realistic way.



The Internet and the Labor Market

0239538
David Autor
National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
1320

This research studies the labor market consequences of two developments -- the Internet and temporary employment agencies. The first project explores how the migration of job posting and candidate screening to the World Wide Web will affect personnel outcomes using firm level data of a large national bank; the bank will migrate all of its branches and occupations in phases to exclusively online recruiting. This part of the research analyzes several issues including how the move to online recruiting shapes the quality of worker-firm matches and whether improvements in firm-level match quality due to online recruiting yields aggregate changes in the quality of matches and hence operation of labor markets.

The second part of the research studies hiring in the temporary help sector. The temporary-help industry accounted for 10% of U.S. jobs created in the 1990s. This is a major conduit by which less-skilled workers enter the labor market. This part of the research studies how the growth of temporary help services affect labor market advancement of less-skilled workers. The first phase of the project explores how the choice of job search modality for a given worker -- temporary help agency versus direct-hire employment -- impacts labor market progression.



Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy

0136551
Bennett McCallum
Carnegie-Mellon University
1320

The Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy is designed to foster research and discussion of major policy issues by economists from academia and various policy making organizations. Economists in universities are often unfamiliar with the constraining effect of institutional arrangements in the shaping of policy issues whereas economists in government are often less aware of current research developments and their implications. The principal objectives of the conference series are (i) to stimulate policy relevance in theoretical and empirical research in economic science, (ii) to encourage interchange of scientific ideas among analysts with different approaches, and (iii) to generate greater understanding by academic economists of practitioners' environments. The conferences are held semi-annually at Carnegie Mellon University and the University of Rochester. About 50 participants plus faculty and graduate students from the host institution are invited to each conference. Participants from U.S. and foreign central banks and U.S. and international agencies attend regularly, and special care is taken to involve promising young scholars. The papers and formal discussions are edited and published so as to broaden the impact of the conference.



Center for Game Theory in Economics Conferences, Workshops and Intensive Courses in Game Theory

0241967
Yair Tauman
SUNY at Stony Brook
1320

The series of annual summer activities of the Center for Game Theory in Economics is designed to stimulate and disseminate new advances in research on game theory and its applications, and to make conceptual and methodological developments in game theory available to an expanding group of scientists in economics and other disciplines. Each summer there are research-oriented conferences and workshops and, upon occasion, an intensive course of instruction on a topic of major significance, complemented by a further period of informal research activities. This series brings together a large international group of researchers--a mix of established scholars, junior faculty, and graduate students--whose interests represent a diverse array of theoretical and applied aspects of game theory. The programs for 2003-2005 are a continuation of the series of summer activities held at Stony Brook from 1990 to 2002, each of which attracted about 120 participants on average. Formal activities normally include a five-day conference with plenary and parallel sessions, and invited and contributed papers; two workshops on selected themes; and from time to time, one to two weeks of intensive instruction on selected topics. The value of this format and approach is evidenced by the success of the previous programs.



Strategies for Managing Renewable Natural Resources

0241509
John Rust
National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
1320

Understanding how best to steward a resource forever poses novel theoretical challenges and is one of immense practical importance. On the one hand, there is the prospect of inefficient underutilization while at the other extreme there is the possibility of driving species to extinction. This project investigates the management of one renewable natural resource, timber, in the province of British Columbia, Canada. The researchers will use the same Timber Supply Area (TSA) site-level data used by timber-supply managers in the British Columbia Ministry of Forests when making harvesting decisions. For each of the several hundreds of thousands of hectares in the Fraser TSA, which is located near Vancouver, British Columbia, officials at the Ministry of Forests provide the investigators with a wide variety of biological, engineering, and geographical information relevant to harvesting timber. In addition, the researchers also have access to the harvesting strategies proposed and, in some cases, the decisions implemented by the Minister of Forests, so they can compare their estimated decisions with actual ones.

The researchers apply the method of stochastic dynamic programming to develop practical harvesting solutions for timber. Together with the detailed data they have access to, this method allows them to take as the starting point the existing uneven-aged timber stand as given and derive the optimal timber-harvesting profile, in terms of this age distribution. The availability of these data and modern computational methods allows them to avoid the limits faced by economists and foresters in the past, who typically had to demonstrate their methods by making extremely simple assumptions concerning the stochastic nature of timber prices and volumes so that closed-form examples could be solved.



Quality Changes and Price Increases

0241623
Mark Bils
University of Rochester
1320

This research utilizes Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, to study two issues. The first part of the research will study the sensitivity of consumer price inflation and quality growth to treatment of the price increases associated with the introduction of new models of consumer durables. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) resampling method will be exploited to gain information on how quantities sold change with model turnovers. This information will then be used to gauge how much of price increases for new goods should be attributed to quality improvements.

The second part of the research should show how information on temporary product stockouts provide more direct information on how firms' cost and prices behave over the market cycle than existing methods. The stockout data are available for a much wider and more disaggregate set of goods than data on finished inventories. The research should show how price markups can either be attributed to price stickiness or active price adjustments by sellers.



The Industrial Revolution in Theory and in History

0241376
Gregory Clark
University of California-Davis
1320

Economists have constructed many theoretical models to explain the Industrial Revolution transition -- the shift from slow productivity growth and fertility-determined living standards to the world of modern growth and rapid and persistent productivity gains. A void exists, however, between theory and empirics. While models have multiplied, economic aggregates for any country before 1830 still do not exist. Even in England, the best-documented pre-industrial economy, there are no national income estimates before 1700.

The materials exist, however, to estimate all the major economic aggregates for England back to 1260, including skilled and unskilled wages, land rents, capital returns, real output, output per capita, factor shares, aggregate Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth rates, TFP growth for many sectors of the economy, and tax revenues. This project will complete the task of earlier economic historians who attempted to assemble price and wage histories of England. The investigator has been working on estimating these aggregates for a number of years. He has completed papers on many of the components needed: agricultural wages (1210-1869), house rents (1550-1869), the housing stock (1550- 1869), farmland rents (1210-1869), prices for 22 farm outputs (1500-1869), returns on capital (1150-1869), and days worked per worker (1560-1869).

This project will seek first the completion of the required series, adding fresh archival information where necessary. Second, it will put them together to form the national aggregates. The resulting series, the national economic aggregates for England all the way from 1260 to 1860, as well as the underlying data, will be made available to scholars and the public through a web page.



Information Economics, Confidential Settlement Bargaining, and Judicial Decision-Making

0239908
Andrew Daughety
Vanderbilt University
1320

This research will look at the impact of confidential settlements on performance in markets for goods and services. Of significant concern is the notion that allowing confidential settlement protects and encourages bad behavior by agents in a variety of settings. Alternatively, banning confidentiality may also compromise important values, such as personal privacy and the protection of intellectual property via trade secrecy; without the ability to conclude confidential settlements, some important cases may never be brought, and fewer of those brought are likely to settle. It is important to identify these tradeoffs and their implications for market performance in order that sensible public policy can be pursued.

A second topic concerns how differences in information among litigants and judges affect the outcomes of individual cases and, ultimately, the evolution of the law. The judicial process is inherently passive: suits must be filed and appeals made in order for courts to be able to clarify rules and make/interpret law. When law is made, or interpreted, by a sequence of courts, as is true in the US system, the effectiveness of correctives (such as appeal) may be attenuated by problems of insufficient resources or unwieldy organization.



Human Capital, Social Capital, and Infant Health

0241861
Janet Currie
National Bureau of Economic Research Inc
1320

Infant health is a key determinant of an individual's future success in life. For example, surviving infants of low birth weight are more likely to suffer from learning disabilities and other cognitive problems. Moreover, children of lower socioeconomic status have much poorer birth outcomes on average. To the extent that infant health is compromised by the mother's lack of opportunity, it represents a mechanism for the intergenerational perpetuation of poverty and inequality.

This project assembles a new panel of data on infant health using California's Vital Statistics Natality Records for 1982 to 2001. This panel allows them to follow mothers between births in order to answer three questions about the relationships between human capital, social capital, and the determinants of infant health. First, how does maternal education affect infant health in a rich country such as the United States? Can spillovers from maternal education to infant health be considered as an additional return to education? Do estimated effects of maternal education differ with socioeconomic status, immigrant status, or race/ethnicity? In order to answer these questions this project compares the infant health outcomes of siblings whose mothers increased their education between births to those whose mothers did not. The project also examines the channels through which increased education improves infant health.

The second research question asks if "network effects" can explain geographical/ethnic correlations in the use of publicly funded maternity care services. Many researchers have noted strong correlations between behaviors of women in networks defined using geographical and ethnic/racial affiliations, but it is difficult to prove that there is a causal link. A panel of data allows the researchers to control for many unobservable determinants of infant health which have confounded previous non-experimental studies. Moreover this project tests the prevalent hypothesis that estimated network effects reflect shared information. If networks act by transmitting information, then the estimated effects should be larger among mothers who have not previously used public maternity care services, since mothers who have already experienced the services will know how to access them and do not need to gain this information from networks. The panel permits comparisons of the estimated effects of networks on women who did and did not previously receive the services in order to conduct this test.

The third question is how the implementation of Medicaid managed care in California has affected access to maternity care services. The construction of the panel enables the project to ask, for example, whether Medicaid mothers who are constrained to join Medicaid managed care organizations become less likely to enroll in Medicaid, use certain hospitals, to receive services, and ultimately to have healthy infants.



Wholesale Price Regulation in Retail Gasoline Markets

0242112
Justine Hastings
Dartmouth College
1320

This study will provide a framework for analyzing the potential impacts of wholesale price regulation and competition in the gasoline industry. Policy makers at the state and federal levels have proposed wholesale price regulation as a means to restore 'competitive' retail price patterns in retail gasoline markets. Fair Wholesale Price legislation (FWP) would prevent wholesale gasoline suppliers from price discriminating between retail stations. Instead of charging different wholesale prices to different stations, as is currently the practice, refiners would be required to charge the same price to all retailers. This research project will use a discrete choice demand estimation that will be developed to simulate the impact of FWP legislation. This simulation exercise will be used to answer the following pressing policy-relevant questions: Would average retail prices increase or decrease as a result of FWP? What market factors influence the direction and magnitude of the estimated effect? Is FWP a regressive or progressive policy - will it lead to higher or lower prices in disadvantaged socioeconomic communities? Is there an alternative policy that might increase competition in retail gasoline markets, leading to lower prices and decreased price dispersion? This detailed and rigorous empirical estimation of the effects of FWP legislation will guide policy makers at the state and federal level as they consider legislation aimed at increasing competition in retail gasoline markets.



Summer Workshop Series in Macroeconomic Theory and Dynamic Economic Modeling

0242282
Larry Jones
University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
1320

This project consists of a series of workshops to be hosted jointly by the University of Minnesota and the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis during the summers of 2003, 2004, and 2005. Each workshop is one week long, concentrating on theoretical issues in macroeconomics and dynamic economic modeling. These workshops continue the series sponsored by the NSF at the University of Minnesota during 2000-02 and at Northwestern University during 1990-99. Specific topics for the three years will vary, depending on research interests of the participants. Topics in recent years have included: monetary theory, technical change and technology adoption, fiscal policy, business cycles, and government policy in the absence of commitment.

This series has provided a valuable forum for researchers working on substantive and methodological issues in theoretical macroeconomics, broadly defined. It has provided both an outlet for the formal presentation and intensive discussion of recent papers and an opportunity for informal discussions outside the seminar room among researchers working in related areas.

The organizers have made a concerted effort to choose program committees each year that will reach a broad spectrum of theoretical macroeconomists, and the program committees have made a strong effort to identify and include young researchers. This workshop series is one of the few with an emphasis on the theoretical side of macroeconomics and dynamic economic modeling, and provides a useful opportunity for discussions among researchers representing somewhat distinct intellectual traditions.



Eyewitness Identification

9807339
Gary Wells
Iowa State University
1372

Mistaken eyewitness identification is the primary cause of the conviction of innocent people. After making an identification from a lineup, triers of fact (e.g., judges, juries) must rely on what eyewitnesses say about how good their view was, how well they could make out details of the culprit’s face, and how certain the eyewitness is in the identification. This research involved a series of experiments in which eyewitnesses to staged crimes were shown lineups that, unbeknownst to the eyewitnesses, did not contain the culprit, and all eyewitnesses made mistaken identifications. Based on random assignment to conditions, some witnesses were then given confirming feedback (“Good, you identified the suspect”), some were told nothing, and some were told that they identified someone who was not a suspect. The percentage of eyewitnesses who report having been very certain rises to 50% if they were given confirming feedback compared to only 12% for the control condition. This research shows how feedback can destroy the ability of triers of fact to make good decisions about whether or not an eyewitness identification was accurate.

The results of this research have strong implications for how police should conduct lineups. Currently, lineups are administered in most police departments by the case detective. The case detective knows which person is the suspect and which persons are merely fillers in the lineup. As a result, the eyewitness learns either openly or though body language whether the eyewitness identified the suspect or identified a filler. As the research shows, this can lead witnesses to distort what they say about their certainty, the view they had of the culprit, and so on. These findings were used to help New Jersey reform their police lineup procedures so that now lineups in New Jersey are conducted by someone who does not know which person in the lineup is the suspect (better known in science as double-blind testing). Other police jurisdictions are now considering changing their procedures as well.



Money, Values, and Morality

9818258
William Maurer
University of California-Irvine
1372

Research on globalization has sparked heated debate over whether the free movement of money has eroded state sovereignty and regulatory regimes. The ethereal character of modern money – complicated debt-based instruments, derivatives, and the like – make money seem more intangible at the same time that the adage ‘money makes the world go around’ may be truer than ever. This research explored on-the-ground, everyday understandings of money among people who are forging their own forms of finance -- through Islamic and offshore banking, and local, non-state currencies. For Muslims who refuse to truck in interest, profit-and-loss sharing contracts that take the place of interest-bearing loans are in their very form professions of faith, at the same time that they make good business sense when state currencies plummet in value. For local currency proponents, the creation of non-state moneys is infused with cosmological significance, as people use the money not just for everyday transactions but to extol the local community and local landscape. Offshore finance, a development strategy of a number of small island states, represents a kind of hypermobile capital but also creates a space of reflection on “the market” as a sort of transcendental being whose whims determine the fate of small nations. The research found that, for people involved in alternative financial practices, the separation of economic value from ethical or religious values was utterly untenable, and that money itself can become a powerful means of commenting on morality.



Children's Spontaneous False Memories

9730143
Charles Brainerd
University of Arizona
1372

Three experiments on children’s true and false memories of traumatic medical experiences were conducted, using large samples of children between the ages of 3 and 8 who visited urgent-care facilities, hospital emergency departments, and pediatricians’ offices for treatment of traumatic injuries that did not require general anesthetic (e.g., insect bites, sprains, broken bones). Unlike most prior research, these experiments were theory-driven in that they were designed to test specific hypotheses about factors that influence children’s false memories. Two central questions were: Are children’s spontaneous false memories of trauma affected by amount of prior memory interviewing? Are those false memories affected by the time interval since the trauma occurred? The experiments revealed, contrary to widespread belief in medical and forensic circles, that children exhibit spontaneous false memories for trauma and that those false memories occur at quite high levels.

Even more important, from the perspective of applications to legal questions, children’s false memories varied lawfully in accordance with the predictions of fuzzy-trace theory. Thus, children’s false memories of trauma did not violate theoretical principles that have been developed to explain false memories for everyday, nontraumatic experiences. Consistent with theoretical predictions, levels of false memory increased over time, to the point that true and false memories of trauma were virtually indistinguishable after one year, and repeated memory testing elevated false memories. Also consistent with theoretical predictions, children’s false memories of trauma varied systematically as a function of the type of false event, with false memories being more for medical events that are likely to occur during doctor visits than for medical events that are unlikely to occur during doctor visits and more marked for medical events than for nonmedical events. Research is continuing on memory mechanisms that create and suppress children’s false memories of trauma.



9-11-01 and Civil Liberties

0201149
Kathleen Moore
University of Connecticut
1372

In the immediate aftermath of the terrorism of September 11th, Americans believed that the civil liberties of Muslims and Arabs in the United States should be as unfettered as anyone else’s, according to a survey conducted by the Center for Survey Research and Analysis (CRSA) at the University of Connecticut. The survey of public opinion on post-9/11 anti-terrorism measures that would impact certain freedoms compared how Americans felt if these would be applied to Americans in general as opposed to Muslims and Arabs in the United States specifically. Americans were slightly more willing to support increased wiretapping (tapping telephones and computer monitors) of Muslims and Arabs more readily than of Americans in general. However, this was the only measure that yielded a statistically significant difference. The study also examined attitudes about new immigrants from Muslim countries as compared to new immigrants from other parts of the world, and found that support for current levels of immigration in general is positively associated with opposition to civil liberties restrictions.



Probability of Hung Juries

0001951
Narina Nunez
University of Wyoming
1372

This research looked at the impact of reasoning on jury decision-making. Specifically, the investigators examined individual differences in ability to reason about evidence and its impact on the group decision process. The results demonstrate that the reasoning level of juries (composed of either all high reasoners, so called "theory-evidence coordinators" or low level reasoners, so called "satisficers") varied in a number of ways. One important result showed that low-level reasoners (satisficers) were more likely to change their minds when placed in a jury with higher level reasoners (theory evidence coordinators). The research also indicated that probability of a hung jury varies with jury reasoning levels.



Summer Training in Emprical Implications of Theoretical Models

0215621
James Alt
Harvard University
1371

The 2002 Empirical Summer Training Institute involved 15 faculty and 22 competitively-selected student participants, with faculty rotating responsibility for weekly and daily lectures. The program's goal is to train a new generation of scholars who can better link theoretical and empirical work, by offering students an opportunity to be taught by, and work with, experienced scholars who are leaders in advancing theoretical and empirical work, focusing on substantive areas where appreciable research integrating theory and methods already exists.

During the first three weeks morning and early afternoon sessions were devoted to instruction, and a daily early evening session and Saturday session were devoted to research presentations by faculty and students. Evenings also afforded opportunities for lab time for exercises as necessary. To combine integrative teaching of formal theory and empirical methods with research presentation and interaction, the fourth week of proceedings provided an intense mentoring experience. A significant purpose of this period was to germinate new research ideas. Student presentations, which filled the final few days, were web simulcast with e-mail links for remote viewers, to enable faculty no longer in residence to participate.

Other features of the program design involved faculty planning meetings, notably at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, and a competitive poster session for selected students at the annual meetings of the Midwest Political Science Association.



Voting and Citizenship in the Russian Elections

9876549
Timothy Colton
Harvard University
1371

Working through the Deomscope group at the Institute of Sociology of the Academy of Sciences in Russia, a Harvard team of investigators conducted three sets of interviews: one before the parliamentary election of December 1999, the second after that election, and the third after the presidential election of March 2000. They investigated influences on voting choice, including sociodemographic background, economic realities, nascent partisan attachments, issue opinions, evaluations of incumbents, evaluations of the personal qualities of leaders, and prospective evaluations of future performance on the part of parties and presidential candidates.

Their results show that Russian political parties on the whole remain weak, and partisan attitudes have not gained on their levels of the mid-1990s. There has been a remarkable surge in support in 1999-2000 for a new pro-government bloc, Unity, in the parliamentary election, and for Boris Yeltsin’s designated heir, the previously obscure Vladimir Putin, in the presidential election. Communist and other radical oppositionists fared worse than forecast, due to a mix of factors: a hunger for stability in society; an economic rebound after the fiscal crisis and currency devaluation of 1998; the graying of the Communist electorate; the tactical skill of the Unity and Putin campaigns; their ruthlessness in capitalizing on the second Chechnya war; and on the bias toward them in television coverage. The upshot of the twinned elections was the nudging of Russia’s political equilibrium toward what many dub a “managed democracy,” in which some democratic forms are retained but the state recommits itself to controlling society and reinvigorates its ability to do so. More generally, this research also shows that in certain key respects citizens in newer democracies respond to the same motivations and cue of citizens in older democracies.



Public Support in the Aftermath of 9-11

0300419
George Marcus
Williams College
1371

This Small Grant for Exploratory Research is studying the emotional underpinnings of support for national security policy in the period before, during, and after a major international event, in this case the anticipated conflict with Iraq. Tremendous uncertainty surrounds the threat posed by Iraq and the risks associated with U.S. military action there. This uncertainty is likely to rekindle and intensify emotional reactions that were present in the aftermath of 9/11. The predominant question is, will citizens rally behind the President as has happened in past conflicts? Or has the landscape been altered by the events of 9/11, so that potential risks of military action now dominate public deliberation? Will those Americans whose sense of security was shattered by 9/11 be reassured by talk of preemptive strikes against Iraq, or will they feel even less secure? More generally, what roles do the emotions play in public reactions to national security threats and support or opposition for government policies in response to those threats?   To capture the evolution of public opinion in the midst of this major national security crisis, the investigators are adding two additional waves to an existing national dataset collected in the months after 9/11. The second wave is a re-interview of this sample (with 200 new respondents) to be conducted in October, 2002, and the third wave will be split, with half re-interviewed immediately after hostilities begin and half when things settle down. This design allows for maximal purchase in understanding how perceptions of risk, depression, anxiety, anger, and reassurance shape public opinion with measures taken at three different time points: before Iraq was on most people’s radar, in the midst of public discussion of proposed military action against Iraq (wave 2, October 2002), in the immediate aftermath of military action. Besides the basic science value of this research, it promises to inform public policy on major national security issues.



Democracy, Toleration, and the Strains of French Politics

9818742
Paul Sniderman
Stanford University
1371

The Principal Investigator obtained a representative sample of the adult population of France and administered a custom-designed computer-assisted interview combining standard public opinion questions with randomized experiments. The objective of the study was to examine the commitment of citizens to democratic practices under pressure. The standard public opinion survey is designed to determine the positions that a representative sample of citizens take on issues of current policy or controversy in a deliberately neutral situation where no pressure is applied on them to take a stand on one side or another whether in the form of explicit argumentation or indirect cues.

In this research the investigators have endeavored to determine the extent to which, and the conditions under which, citizens will take different positions, on both contemporary issues and issues of democratic procedure, in response to different kinds of arguments. The largest part of the results throw light on the distinctive politics of France. The results indicate that French citizens appear to be tolerant, but that is only because they are being asked to tolerate groups they like. If they are asked to put up with groups they dislike, they show different views. Using the “random draw” experiment, the investigators show that the largest part of the commitment to the idea of tolerance is genuine, not illusory.

A second finding shows encouraging results related to the capacity of citizens to engage in political discussion and reason coherently about major policy issues. The results indicate that both more politically sophisticated citizens and less politically sophisticated citizens can benefit from political discussion. Under conditions that can be specified in detail, the study shows that both can make political choices more coherently after they heard competing views on matters of public importance.



Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models Summer Institute

0215573
Steven Smith
Washington University
1371

Beginning in the summer of 2003, four training institutes (2003-2006) on the campus of Washington University in St. Louis will be offered to bridge the divide between formal and empirical analysis in political science. The goal is to advance the study of methods and models and to expand the research community with cutting-edge expertise. Each Summer Institute is comprised of four one-week seminars and will have 25 graduate student participants recruited on a competitive basis. Students are offered on-campus housing and are provided with travel and lodging subsidies. An EITM committee comprised of Washington University faculty will administer the program.



Ethnocentrism, Ethnic Conflict, and Discrimination

0240852
Robert Axelrod
University of Michigan Ann Arbor
1371

The project uses agent-based models to develop a deeper understanding of fundamental aspects of in-group favoritism and out-group hostility, in all their manifestations including ethnocentrism, ethnic conflict, and discrimination based on factors such as skin color, religion, or national origin. The importance of these problems is manifest, as in the US racial discrimination is a major cause of inequality.

The broader impacts for society will be twofold: 1) The insights from the theoretical models will provide a sounder basis on which to make public policies to prevent, inhibit, or correct the problems caused by in-group favoritism and out-group hostility. 2) The project integrates teaching and research by providing a web site for students in high school through graduate school.



Crisis Bargaining with Incomplete Information

0241647
Kenneth Schultz
University of California-Los Angeles
1371

A central problem in the study of international conflict is to understand the factors that influence states' incentives and behavior in crisis situations involving the threat or use of force. What variables influence how states assess the attractiveness of waging war? When will the targets of threats choose to yield or resist? When will leaders implement the threats they make? This project advances a method for addressing such questions in a manner that is faithful to the nature of strategic interaction in international crises. Inferences from observational data can only be made with confidence when the uncertainty and potential for signaling that are inherent in such situations are accounted for. The project has three components: 1) developing an empirical estimator that is derived directly from a game theoretic model that incorporates incomplete information; 2) leveraging existing international data sets, data are collected that codes conflict outcomes in a way that is consistent with current theoretical treatments of interstate crisis bargaining and 3) using the data and method to test prominent theories of international comflict.



Fear and Anxiety after 9-11-01

0201650
Leonie Huddy
SUNY at Stony Brook
1371

The investigators for this Small Grant for Exploratory Research examined the effects of cognitive and affective reactions to threat on support for anti-terrorism policies using a survey of the American public conducted in the aftermath of 9/11. The investigators distinguished between the ‘cool’ cognitive appraisals of threat and the ‘hot’ emotions it can elicit, such as fear and anxiety. Analyses are based on data from a national telephone survey of a rolling-cross section design of 1,570 adults interviewed between early October, 2001 and early March, 2002. The investigators found that a substantial number of Americans appraised the risk of future attacks on the nation as relatively high, and a minority expressed considerable levels of fear and anxiety in response to the attacks and the US response. Moreover, individuals who experienced high levels of fear and anxiety after the attacks were LESS supportive of aggressive military action against terrorists and generally favored increased American isolationism. This finding stands in contrast to the majority of Americans who viewed future terrorist attacks as likely and were MORE supportive of government action domestically and internationally to combat the threat of terrorism. Thus, the investigators confirmed a difference in support for US foreign policy among individuals who appraised the risk of terrorism highly but were not personally fearful and those who were highly fearful of future terrorist attacks.



FLAD / NSF International Bioethics Institute

9906244
Gary Comstock
Iowa State University
7915

Each year, this project brings together two dozen life scientists from Europe and a half dozen from the U.S. A total of more than 90 have gathered in Lisbon to study, for example, environmental ethics, marine ethics, and genetically modified foods. The European Commission recently selected the initiative for inclusion in a brochure highlighting EC achievements.



Scientists and Policy-Making: Objectivity, Moral Responsibility, and Risk

0115258
Heather Douglas
University of Puget Sound
7915

Values are an essential part of scientific reasoning and crucial for decision-making in scientific practice. To neglect the role of values in science is to neglect the moral responsibilities inherent in doing science. For example, scientists must consider the impacts of possible errors in their work when interpreting their results, particularly when the work retains significant uncertainty. Considering the impacts of error includes weighing those impacts using social values. Rejecting the ideal of value-free science does not mean the demise of scientific objectivity, however. There are several ways in which science can be meaningfully objective, and still be saturated with values. Objectivity in science can include such elements as the reliability of new scientific tools, the convergence of information from multiple sources, discursive agreement among experts, or clearly defined procedures for analysis, none of which is dependent on the exclusion of values from science.



Workshop, Textbook, and Website for Ethics Instruction

9910872
Theodore Goldfarb
SUNY at Stony Brook
7915

The contents of this textbook were based on two-week intensive workshops the authors conducted for nearly 75 Long Island high school science teachers. The text was composed over a two year period following the Long Island workshops. A major feature of the text is a set of lesson plans developed by the teachers themselves. The primary aim of this project was to introduce teachers in other states to the model developed in the Long Island project. Three day workshops were presented to more than 20 teachers in each of two states, Florida and Washington.

Although presented in a much more condensed format than the Long Island workshops, these two workshops were quite successful in helping teachers to understand the rationale for including ethics in their classes and to develop their own lesson plans. The text was designed to cover basic issues that were addressed in the Long Island workshops and to provide working models of lesson plans that the Long Island teachers had successfully tested in their own classes. A highlight of the Florida and Washington workshops was the set of thoughtful and imaginative lesson plans developed by the teachers, especially given the short timeframe within which they operated. An additional highlight was the enthusiasm teachers had for making serious efforts to include ethics in their science classes.

An advantage of having the Goldfarb/Pritchard text available is that this provides both these teachers and others who share their interests with a published guide that they can continue to use as they develop their own science/ethics programs. Furthermore, teachers who access the text through the Online Ethics website are encouraged to submit additional educational resources, including their own lesson plans to this site.



Risk in Speech and Gesture

9812059
Beverly Sauer
Carnegie-Mellon University
7915

This project uses a variety of ethnographic and linguistic methods to analyze how speech and gesture affect the outcomes of risk communication, particularly when speakers do not share a common language, education, or culture. The researchers studied risk in speech and gesture in the South African context. The complexity of the South African context makes visible features of risk communication not visible in less diverse workplace contexts.

The results suggests that risk communicators must pay more attention to the linguistic and rhetorical features of stakeholder communication. They must develop methods of transcription and interpretation to make visible what stakeholders represent in speech and gesture before they can draw conclusions about what stakeholders know (or ought to know) in difficult cross-cultural contexts.



Development and Roles of Bioethics in American Society

9710579
Judith Swazey
Acadia Institute
7915

The investigators interviewed the founders of the Bioethics field to deepen and expand information and understanding about the achievements, limitations, and future prospects of American bioethics. Domains of bioethics explored include: academic teaching and writings, clinical consultation, and the public squares of the mass media, and the development of national policies involving biomedical research and medicine. A more recent and controversial domain is the globalization of American bioethics: the exportation of the particularly American approach to bioethical concerns to other societies and cultures around the globe. In the development of bioethics since the 1960s, a phrase originated by the philosopher and bioethicist H. Tristram Engelhardt provides an apt characterization of the field’s increasing prominence: bioethics has become the “secular priesthood” of our time. One major objective was to further the development of archival materials that provide educational and research resources and to include the perspective of persons from the various disciplines who are working in this multi-disciplinary field about the nature and effectiveness of its academic, clinical, and policy roles. To that end, the investigators have deposited the transcripts of 39 in-depth interviews with many of the major figures in American bioethics, and a transcript of a one-day meeting of the project advisory group, at the National Reference Center for Bioethics Literature/Kennedy Institute of Ethics Library, Georgetown University.



Engineering Ethics DVD

0138309
Jimmy Smith
Texas Tech University
7915

Texas Tech University is developing a DVD for instructional purposes in undergraduate engineering curricula, called "Incident at Morales, An Engineering Ethics Story." The DVD shows the international context in which today's engineers operate. The "hero" of the short film is an Hispanic engineer. The first cut of the video was well received on February 28, 2003 at the annual meeting of the Association for Practical and Professional Ethics.



Ethics Education at the University of Puerto Rico

9810253
William Frey
University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez
7915

Investigators from the University of Puerto Rico Mayaguez have developed numerous ethics cases geared towards Latin American issues, and they have developed ethics integration projects for the university. The program has the strong support of the chancellor and is enabling the incorporation of ethics modules in business, science, and engineering classes across the campus. They are working with other campuses in Puerto Rico and other Latin American countries. They believe that their model has much promise for adoption in many places. They have developed an instructors' manual responsive to the ABET self-evaluation requirements, and recently made a presentation about the project at the Montreal American Society of Engineering Education meeting. Information about results from the NSF project is available at: http://www.uprm.edu/ethics/grants.htm.



Norms of Science through Graduate Student Eyes

9710734
Melissa Anderson
University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
7915

One part of the Academic Life Project investigated graduate students' conceptions of appropriate behavior in academic work. In interviews, doctoral students were asked about contrasts between scientific norms as they understood them, their own normative perspectives, and the behavior of their scientific peers. Students' responses centered on violations of rules or ethical practices, as in the following: "We all have to go to this safety training before we are allowed to go in the lab.... And then, they always say practically nothing is supposed to go down the drain. And sometimes stuff does. But we're not even supposed to put things like ... a simple rinsing agent down the drain ... but it happens all the time." With regard to the contrast between scientific norms and the students' own normative perspectives, most responses addressed the competitive nature of the scientific environment. Some mentioned, for example, that they were previously socialized to collaborative norms and found their professors' insistence on individual work and independent achievement counterproductive. Finally, in addressing the contrast between students' own conceptions and the behavior of their peers, students most frequently mentioned others' inability to meet the demands of their doctoral programs. They clearly expressed their understanding of the tremendous commitment to science required to succeed, in contrast to the less-than-complete commitment they saw exhibited among their doctoral peers. The doctoral students’ interviews reveal the norms of science as they understand them, during a period when they are grappling with what it means to be a scientist. The interviews also show the confused nature of doctoral students' personal normative orientations, suggesting that doctoral programs may overestimate the extent of student understanding of the academic system, the nature of research, and the place of individual scientists in the broader context of research.



Public Participation in Technology Policy Decision-Making

0242994
Jane Macoubrie
North Carolina State University
7915

Public participation in technology policy decision-making is both controversial and desirable. It is controversial because of questions about the capabilities of citizens to understand and evaluate these complex issues; it is desirable because democratic participation is a measure of civic engagement and may improve decisions and their outcomes. Identification and development of more effective modes of citizen participation will play an important part in enabling citizens to participate effectively.

This project has several goals: 1) to develop improved vehicles for effective public involvement in technology policy, 2) to create basic knowledge of how citizens' trust in regulators, scientists, and corporations; self-efficacy; and learning are affected by participation in these processes, and 3) to inform development of effective internet-mediated models for national technology policy participation. The research team, composed of faculty in rhetoric of science, group decision-making, and political science, will conduct two mixed-mode and six internet-mediated consensus conferences, based on the Danish model. These conferences will involve 120 citizens; each panel of 15 citizens will be representative of the local population and will deliberate to reach consensus recommendations on a prominent technology issue. The research includes testing an innovative measure of democratic deliberation developed by one of the team. The project will also test political science theory, by investigating relationships between gender, ethnicity, lower socio-economic status and increases in efficacy and trust in regulators, as outcomes of modes of participation.



Making the Grade: Science and Values in Agricultural Grades and Standards

9810149
Lawrence Busch
Michigan State University
7915

This project examined ethical issues arising from the creation and enforcement of food and agricultural standards. Standards raise concerns with respect to who negotiates the standard and who accesses the market, with what normative outcomes. As the world moves toward greater emphasis on free trade, public food and agricultural standards are being complemented by private ones. Private standards include those for labor, quality, “fair trade,” and the environment in addition to food safety.

Among the key findings: Paradoxically, as the world shifts toward a “free market,” international and private standards have expanded in scope. The WTO has become a de facto enforcer of standards. International standards bodies find themselves at the center of controversies as a result of use of their standards by the WTO. At the same time, these bodies are becoming more open and transparent. Supermarket chains have also begun to formulate and enforce standards, often more stringent than those of public bodies.

Industrial nations have inadequately prepared developing nations to cope with these new standards. Developing countries are rarely heard in discussions of standards setting and enforcement. Despite the widespread use of science and technology to define standards, the variability of agricultural products and incomplete character of contracts leaves considerable room for negotiation. In other instances, the lack of clear standards can be a source of inequity among producers.

Three kinds of ethical issues are of considerable importance: Distributive justice among and between all actors in the supply chain, rights to participate in standards making and enforcement, and differential ability of various parties to influence decisions at points of grading. Additionally, a graduate level specialization is being developed at MSU focusing on Food and Agricultural Standards. This program will be unique in the US and perhaps in the world. The program will be interdisciplinary and will give students from a variety of fields the opportunity to incorporate standards issues into their graduate program. The program should provide students with the necessary tools and perspectives to provide guidance to both the public and private sector in fair and equitable standards development and enforcement.



Disseminating Instructional Materials on Ethical Issues in Science

0080712
John Ahearne
Sigma XI Scientific Research Society
7915

The project consisted of small scale (less than 50 attendees) workshops on ethics issues in science and technology. These workshops are welcomed and supported by academic institutions; they value the unique opportunity for cross-disciplinary participation.

Some institutions found mixing graduate students, postdoctoral researchers and faculty particularly valuable. The most effective workshops were locally conceived and organized and relied on case studies based on issues actively in play on that particular campus. Sigma Xi has developed a model containing advice on how to organize small local workshops on current ethics issues for use by its members and others.



Intellectual Property Protection and Partnerships

9906140
Nicholas Vonortas
George Washington University
8815

9910221
Albert Link
University of North Carolina at Greensboro
8815

Findings from this project indicate that, while intellectual property protection is a fundamental consideration for all members – industrial firms as well as colleges or universities – in undertaking collaborative research partnerships, it does not pose insurmountable problems. Results come from a mail survey of 54 general counsels or patent counsels from companies within the US manufacturing and services sector, and 23 in-depth telephone interviews. Responses indicate that confidentiality agreements are critically relevant at early stages of partnerships, while patents are the most frequently used intellectual property protection mechanism. University participation does complicate intellectual property negotiations, and firms express concern over the increasing financial motives of universities in their negotiations. However, firms still place a high value on the research contributions of individual university professors and researchers. Negotiating difficulties increase when the negotiating firms are in the same industry rather than vertically related, and US firms find negotiating with European firms relatively less difficult than with Asian firms.



Engineering in 16th-Century Rome

0240358
Pamela Long
Long Pamela O
1353

In the wake of 9-11, many urban planners are calling for more attention to how our urban forms identify our society and who we are as modern Americans. Long's study provides a mirror on this type of approach by examining late 16th-century Rome, which was marked by an intense period of building spawned by the Catholic Church. Her proposal is an important and timely one that brings together the history of science and technology with urban and environmental history, while situating the transformation of Rome in its rich political and religious history.



Food Safety Standards and the Moral Economy of Meatpacking

0240347
Elizabeth Dunn
University of Colorado at Boulder
1353

Globalization has had a marked impact on many aspects of modern living, including the production of food stuffs. With the development of global markets, issues of the normalization of safety standards in food industries become paramount. This proposal will compare meatpacking industries in Poland and the US to clarify what the PI refers to as the "moral economy" of the industry.



Historical Look at Artificial Life and Intelligence

0240431
Jessica Riskin
Stanford University
1353

Hardly a week goes by where there is not a major news story about cloning or artificial intelligence (AI). Yet, seldom is an historical perspective of either cloning or AI offered. The PI for this proposal will integrate the story of early modern attempts to simulate life and intelligence in a way that will help to locate contemporary developments in a larger history, and open new resources for understanding the interplay between conceptions of the human and the machine over the past several hundred years.



Forensic DNA Evidence in the American Legal System

0240482
John Beatty
University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
1353

This project provides funds for a Ph.D. student in Science and Technology Studies to collect data at the DNA Fingerprinting Archive at Cornell University's Kroch Library, and to complete interviews in three states. The data is in support of a Ph.D. thesis examing the interaction of science and the law. The hypothesis to be tested is that the history of DNA typing represents the hybridization of knowledge and practice from various legal sources, corporate culture, and a multiplicity of scientific disciplines. This project will provide much-needed insight into how science and law interact and be useful in training judges and lawyers as well as scientists. Most importantly it will train a future STS scholar in an important area of science studies.



Incarceration and Fragile Families

0004336
Bruce Western
Princeton University
1331

The U.S. Bureau of the Census recently reported that the number of single mothers in the United States has grown nearly 200 percent since 1970 and that in 1998, 9.8 million mothers were unmarried. Coupled to this trend, the male prison population grew from 200,000 inmates in 1974 to 1.3 million by 2001. Could the growth in the penal population explain some of the rise in single-motherhood, particularly among poor and minority couples, whose men are at greatest risk of incarceration?

Using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, the researchers conducted a cohort study mainly comprised of children born to unwed parents. Analysis of these data indicates that fathers in the survey are unlikely to be living with the mothers of their children at the child’s birth and are very unlikely to get married later. Among men not living with the mother only 4.3 percent of African Americans, 12 percent of Hispanics, and 14.5 percent of whites were married 12 months after their child’s birth. Serving time in prison or jail reduces marriage rates even more. A prison or jail record is estimated to reduce the probability of marriage by 47 percent for African American fathers, 19 percent for Hispanic fathers, and 43 percent for white fathers. If these effects are applied to the population as a whole, they imply that the marriage rate among white men would be about 2 percent higher, and among black men about 12 percent higher, if the rate of incarceration were zero.

 


Estimating Migration Flows from Population Stocks

0240808
Andrei Rogers
University of Colorado at Boulder
1333

When adequate migration data for a particular study region are unavailable, social scientists generally estimate such data indirectly. Population stock data, for example, has been used to infer mortality and net migration. A workable method for using population stock data to infer directional (not net) migration flows, however, has not been developed. Geographer Andrei Rogers of the University of Colorado is developing methods for inferring migration flows from two successive counts of population stocks. He is drawing on statistical representations of regularities in the age and spatial structures found in relatively complete data on migration streams to infer the directional flows that underlie and shape the population distributions enumerated by censuses and sample surveys with incomplete data.

This new method will benefit a number of different user groups. Historical demographers will be able to identify changing mobility patterns hidden in recently released historical population censuses that lack a question on migration. Migration analysts will be able to study mobility patterns in data-poor less-developed countries. Furthermore, population researchers will be able to adapt to the prospective loss of migration data from the soon-to-be-eliminated "long form" questionnaire of the U.S. decennial censuses and its replacement by the American Community Survey, which is a significantly smaller continuous monthly sampling survey.



Improving Computerized Adaptive Testing in the U.S.

0241020
Hua-Hua Chang
University of Texas at Austin
1333

Computerized adaptive testing (CAT) has become a popular mode of educational assessment in the United States. Examples of large scale CATs include the Graduate Record Examination (GRE) and the Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT). While the implementation of CAT has many advantages, a number of issues related to CATs are not well understood. It has been widely reported, for example, that some CAT examinees may get much lower scores than they would get if an alternative "paper and pencil" (P&P) version of the test were given.

Statistician Hua-Hua Chang of the University of Texas at Austin is examining three specific issues in development and implementation of CAT: (1) compatibility between CAT and P&P tests, (2) test security and item pool usage, and (3) how to calibrate test items in large quantities efficiently and economically. He will develop new statistical methods to address these issues and conduct simulation studies to compare the new methods with existing methods. Findings from this research project should further the development of CAT methodology. Because many CATs are high-stakes examinations, an improvement in their test reliabilities should also greatly benefit society.



Cognitive Issues in the Design of Web Surveys

0096179
Roger Tourangeau
University of Michigan Ann Arbor
1333

9910882
Mick Couper
University of Michigan Ann Arbor
1333

Does the "interface" of a Web survey — the language and pictures the survey uses to interact with respondents — affect the answers that respondents give? Lots of programs now use interactive and personalized interfaces, including the animated paper clip featured by Microsoft Office. Survey researchers Mick Couper and Roger Tourangeau of the University of Michigan undertook a series of experiments embedded in Web surveys to find out how Web survey interfaces affect the survey results. For example, in some of their studies, respondents were greeted with a photo of one of the investigators and got feedback on their answers. One concern was that respondents would be more prone to shade their answers and present themselves in a more positive light when the survey was "humanized" in that way. The investigators found no evidence of such distortions. They also found no evidence that the addition of the images increased respondents' willingness to complete the survey. They did find, though, that the "gender" of the interface affected answers on a series of items about sexual equality. When the interface presented a male face, respondents gave less feminist responses on average; when presented with a female face, respondents gave more feminist responses. These results are likely to have a substantial impact on the growing number of surveys done via the Web.

Tourangeau, R., Couper, M.P., and Steiger, D.M. (2003), "Humanizing Self-Administered Surveys: Experiments on Social Presence in Web and IVR Surveys." Computers in Human Behavior, 19: 1-24.



Emotion-Specific Influences on Judgment and Choice

0239637
Jennifer Lerner
Carnegie-Mellon University
1321

Once an exclusively cognitive enterprise, research on judgment and decision making increasingly addresses the powerful influence of emotion. Recent research has shown that even incidental emotion - emotion that is normatively unrelated to the judgment/decision at hand - can have a significant impact on judgment and choice. The majority of studies in this tradition have been motivated by a valence-based approach, contrasting the effects of positive versus negative emotions on judgment and choice. But there is growing evidence that specific emotions of the same valence can trigger opposing perceptions and judgments. For example, in the wake of the terrorist attacks of 9-11, experimentally induced fear produced opposite effects from anger on both risk estimates and policy preferences among U.S. citizens in a nationwide field experiment (Lerner, Gonzalez, Small, & Fischhoff, in press). From a theoretical perspective, these findings demonstrate that dimensions of emotions other than valence are also important components to include in decision models. From an applied perspective, they demonstrate how and why citizens primed for anger will endorse rather different policies than will citizens primed for fear.

The purpose of the proposed research is to develop and test a parsimonious yet powerful theory that comprehensively predicts relations among specific emotions and judgment/choice outcomes. The proposed research will expand Lerner and Keltner's (2000; 2001) appraisal-tendency framework (ATF). The ATF predicts that each emotion activates an implicit cognitive predisposition - an "appraisal tendency" - to appraise future events in line with the central appraisal dimensions that triggered the emotion. Such appraisals, although tailored to help the individual respond to the event that evoked the emotion, persist beyond the eliciting situation - becoming an implicit perceptual lens for interpreting subsequent situations. The appraisal-tendency approach provides a flexible yet specific framework for developing a host of testable hypotheses concerning emotion, judgment, and decision making.

The proposed research will test hypotheses concerning the effects of emotion on three fundamental cognitive processes: probability assessment, valuation, and attribution. Probability assessment, valuation, and attribution are chosen for study because they underlie countless judgments and decisions in daily life. Indeed, the first two processes also form the basis for the dominant theoretical model for decision making under uncertainty: the expected utility model. To the extent that incidental emotion influences subjective utility and/or probability estimates, it will have implications for classical decision theories and contemporary revisions. To the extent that incidental emotion influences attribution processes, it, too, will have manifold implications because attribution plays a central role in foundational theories of social cognition, mental health, physical health, and justice.



Framing Effects and a New Look at Irrational Behavior

0242049
Craig McKenzie
University of California-San Diego
1321

Framing effects are said to occur when "equivalent" redescriptions of objects or outcomes lead to different preferences or judgments. For example, a medical treatment will be seen more favorably when described as resulting in "75% survival" rather than "25% mortality." Such effects have traditionally been seen as irrational. However, preliminary research conducted by the PI has shown that even logically equivalent attribute frames can implicitly convey, or "leak," normatively relevant information. For instance, speakers were more likely to select the "75% survival" frame to describe a new treatment outcome if it led to a higher, rather than a lower, survival rate relative to an old treatment. Moreover, listeners "absorbed" this leaked information: They were more likely to infer that the old treatment led to a lower survival rate when the new treatment was described in terms of percent survival rather than percent mortality.

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